Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Lavaca, TX
May 16, 2024 3:12 AM CDT (08:12 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:34 AM Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 1:18 PM Moonset 1:49 AM |
GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 243 Am Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south around 10 knots late. Bay waters slightly choppy, easing to smooth late. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening.
Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.
Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening.
Saturday - East winds around 5 knots, veering to southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday night and Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Monday and Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 243 Am Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
an elevated onshore flow will persist through the end of the week. The exception could be in and around any scattered storms that may impact the waters later today and on into Friday. Highest rain chances are anticipated inland later today and near the coast on Friday. The area still look to be rain free over the weekend and into early next week along with lower winds and seas.
an elevated onshore flow will persist through the end of the week. The exception could be in and around any scattered storms that may impact the waters later today and on into Friday. Highest rain chances are anticipated inland later today and near the coast on Friday. The area still look to be rain free over the weekend and into early next week along with lower winds and seas.
Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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FXUS64 KCRP 160500 AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1200 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Key Messages:
▶ Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorm tonight and tomorrow
▶ Medium to high chance of moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts tomorrow
A warm and sunny afternoon will continue before cloud cover and rain chances increase this evening into tonight. A few hi-res models led by the HRRR are showing convection developing this evening over Mexico and crossing the border into the Rio Grande Plains this evening after sunset. While chances are low that this activity will make past the Brush Country, included a 20% chance of precipitation tonight across the Coastal Plains into the Coastal Bend. As these storms cross the border, there is a low chance that these storms could become strong to severe, thus prompting SPC to highlight the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country under a Marginal Risk of severe weather. A shortwave will sweep across the Southern Plains tomorrow ejecting a weak cold front into Texas. Nevertheless, storms are expected to develop along the front as it moves southward with models showing an MCS moving into our CWA and impacting the Victoria Crossroads, where SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe weather for tomorrow afternoon. While storms develop north of of the CWA and move southward, there is also a low chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front across the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend.
Daytime highs tomorrow are going to be highly dependent of the development of precipitation and cloud cover. If cloud cover is less than expected, then warmer temperatures can be felt, while if cloud cover is more then highs will be lower. Along with the warm temperatures expected tomorrow, dew points in the upper 70s to lower 80s will lead to miserable heat indices tomorrow across the southern Coastal Plains, southern Coastal Bend and the Brush Country with a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. Overnight lows will remain mild with only a slight cool down into the mid to upper 70s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Key Messages:
- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of Severe Storms Friday across the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend.
- A moderate to major risk of heat related impacts Monday through Wednesday across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country.
Models are in good agreement with a long wave trough tracking eastward across western portions of Texas on Friday and pushing a dryline/surface trough into S TX. The surface trough will provide strong low level convergence across the area. CAPE is forecast to be up to 4400J/kg across the Coastal Bend along with deepening moisture with PWATs of 1.8 to 2 inches across the northern Coastal Bend. The upper level energy ahead of the upper trough will increase through Friday as a 105-110 knot upper level jet nudges across the area and increases the upper level diffluence across S TX. The combination of these features will be conducive for strong, possibly severe storms on Friday. Therefore, the Storms Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe weather on Friday across the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads.
The uncertainty is how strong the cap will be and how long it will take to weaken across the northeastern CWA Across the south and west portions of the CWA, it is expected to be drier and more capped, thus a much lower chance of severe storms across those areas.
Overall, the chance of any storms developing Friday is low to medium (20-30%), mainly eastern CWA
Behind the trough, a ridge will build across TX leading to drier conditions and increasingly hot temperatures. In the low levels, the humidity is progged to increase early next week leading to Heat Index values approaching 110 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains and western Brush Country by Monday and continuing through the middle of next week. This could lead to a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country.
Heat Advisories may be needed across the western CWA Mon-Wed.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
The TAF forecast tonight is deceptively tricky. Model guidance is not handling the cloud cover very well. Observations show that VFR ceilings currently prevail over the area, but satellite imagery definitely hints at MVFR cloud cover developing at or shortly after 06Z across South Texas. While confidence is low, there is a chance that IFR visibility could develop for VCT and ALI so have left a TEMPO in the TAF for these sites. By midday Thursday, expect VFR conditions to prevail. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads, so have the mention of VCTS for CRP, ALI, and VCT. Some of these storms could be strong to severe.
MARINE
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Moderate onshore flow tonight around 15-17 knots will increase to moderate to strong levels tomorrow between 17-19 knots before decreasing back to weaker levels under 15 knots tomorrow night.
There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms across the local waters tomorrow with the best chances across the northern bays and offshore waters. If a storm does develop, there is a low chance they can become strong enough to produce gusts to 34-40 knots. A low chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through the weekend, with periods of more moderate flow expected early next week across the southern bays and nearshore waters.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 78 92 78 92 / 10 30 0 20 Victoria 72 89 73 87 / 10 60 20 20 Laredo 78 102 77 98 / 10 0 10 20 Alice 77 94 75 94 / 10 30 10 30 Rockport 78 87 78 88 / 10 40 10 20 Cotulla 77 97 74 96 / 10 20 10 10 Kingsville 78 93 77 92 / 10 20 10 30 Navy Corpus 79 89 80 90 / 10 30 10 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1200 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Key Messages:
▶ Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorm tonight and tomorrow
▶ Medium to high chance of moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts tomorrow
A warm and sunny afternoon will continue before cloud cover and rain chances increase this evening into tonight. A few hi-res models led by the HRRR are showing convection developing this evening over Mexico and crossing the border into the Rio Grande Plains this evening after sunset. While chances are low that this activity will make past the Brush Country, included a 20% chance of precipitation tonight across the Coastal Plains into the Coastal Bend. As these storms cross the border, there is a low chance that these storms could become strong to severe, thus prompting SPC to highlight the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country under a Marginal Risk of severe weather. A shortwave will sweep across the Southern Plains tomorrow ejecting a weak cold front into Texas. Nevertheless, storms are expected to develop along the front as it moves southward with models showing an MCS moving into our CWA and impacting the Victoria Crossroads, where SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe weather for tomorrow afternoon. While storms develop north of of the CWA and move southward, there is also a low chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front across the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend.
Daytime highs tomorrow are going to be highly dependent of the development of precipitation and cloud cover. If cloud cover is less than expected, then warmer temperatures can be felt, while if cloud cover is more then highs will be lower. Along with the warm temperatures expected tomorrow, dew points in the upper 70s to lower 80s will lead to miserable heat indices tomorrow across the southern Coastal Plains, southern Coastal Bend and the Brush Country with a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. Overnight lows will remain mild with only a slight cool down into the mid to upper 70s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Key Messages:
- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of Severe Storms Friday across the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend.
- A moderate to major risk of heat related impacts Monday through Wednesday across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country.
Models are in good agreement with a long wave trough tracking eastward across western portions of Texas on Friday and pushing a dryline/surface trough into S TX. The surface trough will provide strong low level convergence across the area. CAPE is forecast to be up to 4400J/kg across the Coastal Bend along with deepening moisture with PWATs of 1.8 to 2 inches across the northern Coastal Bend. The upper level energy ahead of the upper trough will increase through Friday as a 105-110 knot upper level jet nudges across the area and increases the upper level diffluence across S TX. The combination of these features will be conducive for strong, possibly severe storms on Friday. Therefore, the Storms Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe weather on Friday across the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads.
The uncertainty is how strong the cap will be and how long it will take to weaken across the northeastern CWA Across the south and west portions of the CWA, it is expected to be drier and more capped, thus a much lower chance of severe storms across those areas.
Overall, the chance of any storms developing Friday is low to medium (20-30%), mainly eastern CWA
Behind the trough, a ridge will build across TX leading to drier conditions and increasingly hot temperatures. In the low levels, the humidity is progged to increase early next week leading to Heat Index values approaching 110 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains and western Brush Country by Monday and continuing through the middle of next week. This could lead to a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country.
Heat Advisories may be needed across the western CWA Mon-Wed.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
The TAF forecast tonight is deceptively tricky. Model guidance is not handling the cloud cover very well. Observations show that VFR ceilings currently prevail over the area, but satellite imagery definitely hints at MVFR cloud cover developing at or shortly after 06Z across South Texas. While confidence is low, there is a chance that IFR visibility could develop for VCT and ALI so have left a TEMPO in the TAF for these sites. By midday Thursday, expect VFR conditions to prevail. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads, so have the mention of VCTS for CRP, ALI, and VCT. Some of these storms could be strong to severe.
MARINE
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Moderate onshore flow tonight around 15-17 knots will increase to moderate to strong levels tomorrow between 17-19 knots before decreasing back to weaker levels under 15 knots tomorrow night.
There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms across the local waters tomorrow with the best chances across the northern bays and offshore waters. If a storm does develop, there is a low chance they can become strong enough to produce gusts to 34-40 knots. A low chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through the weekend, with periods of more moderate flow expected early next week across the southern bays and nearshore waters.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 78 92 78 92 / 10 30 0 20 Victoria 72 89 73 87 / 10 60 20 20 Laredo 78 102 77 98 / 10 0 10 20 Alice 77 94 75 94 / 10 30 10 30 Rockport 78 87 78 88 / 10 40 10 20 Cotulla 77 97 74 96 / 10 20 10 10 Kingsville 78 93 77 92 / 10 20 10 30 Navy Corpus 79 89 80 90 / 10 30 10 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| VCAT2 | 0 mi | 55 min | SSE 13G | 79°F | 81°F | 29.73 | ||
| PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX | 17 mi | 55 min | ESE 16G | 79°F | 82°F | 29.75 | ||
| SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX | 17 mi | 55 min | ESE 8.9G | 80°F | 83°F | 29.72 | ||
| MBET2 | 21 mi | 55 min | S 13G | 79°F | 81°F | 29.72 | ||
| AWRT2 | 30 mi | 55 min | SE 11G | 80°F | 82°F | 29.72 | ||
| EMAT2 | 37 mi | 55 min | SE 9.9G | 79°F | 82°F | 29.76 | ||
| RCPT2 - 8774770 - Rockport, TX | 49 mi | 55 min | SE 13G | 81°F | 85°F | 29.69 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPKV CALHOUN COUNTY,TX | 4 sm | 17 min | SE 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 75°F | 89% | 29.76 | |
| KPSX PALACIOS MUNI,TX | 20 sm | 19 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 75°F | 73°F | 94% | 29.76 | |
| KVCT VICTORIA RGNL,TX | 22 sm | 21 min | E 04 | 8 sm | Overcast | 73°F | 72°F | 94% | 29.76 |
Tide / Current for Port Lavaca, Lavaca Causeway, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Port Lavaca, Lavaca Causeway, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Seadrift, San Antonio Bay, Texas, Tide feet
Corpus Christi, TX,
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