Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Key, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 7:03PM Monday October 14, 2019 9:02 PM EDT (01:02 UTC) Moonrise 6:57PMMoonset 7:07AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ870 Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 To 60 Nm- 855 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Rest of tonight..North winds around 5 knots then becoming southeast around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds around 15 knots then becoming north around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Thursday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 855 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis..High pressure stretches across the peninsula with light east southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon. Dry and benign weather will continue for the next couple of days before rain chances return ahead of a cold front expected to move through early Thursday. Southerly flow from a disturbance in the central gulf of mexico will draw deep moisture north bringing additional rainfall through the upcoming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Key city, FL
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location: 28.66, -83.73     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 150006
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
806 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Aviation
[through 00z Wednesday]
vfr MVFR conditions along with light rain expected through much of
the overnight hours at area terminals. By sunrise, winds will
turn southeast over much of the region and rain showers will
diminish for the first part of Tuesday. However, as southerly flow
increases expect widespread MVFR ifr CIGS to move in, especially
at inland terminals like dhn and aby. As a front moves into the
region overnight Tuesday, expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms along with MVFR ifr conditions near and ahead of the
front. An isolated storm could become strong or severe.

Prev discussion [305 pm edt]
Near term [through tonight]
With a ridge aloft over the gulf of mexico, upper level flow will
remain out of the west overnight tonight. Satellite and water vapor
imagery shows that increased moisture will filter into the region
overnight with this flow. This increase in moisture, in conjunction
with the frontal boundary which is draped across the western fl
panhandle and southern ga al, will increase pops for the northern
portion of the CWA tonight. Lows will only drop into the upper 60's
and low 70's tonight due to the increase in cloud cover.

Short term [Tuesday through Wednesday night]
On Tuesday, a departing upper low over the northeast states will
have a cold front strung out south of it, across the western
atlantic and then laid west to east across southern ms, al and ga.

An elongated ridge of high pressure aloft will be stationed over
the gulf with near zonal flow over the local area. The stationary
front should have showers ongoing at the start of Tuesday. Winds
at the surface will start shifting to the south as a weak llj
ramps up in response to upper shortwaves along the frontal
boundary. A pretty distinct boundary will set up at the surface
anywhere from around tallahassee (gfs) to our northern border
(nam) especially between 15-21z. Instability increases as the
profile saturates with pw values around 2.2 inches and sbcape
around 1500 j kg. Also, with the LLJ nearby, 0-6km shear will be
around 40 knots with 15-20 knots of 0-1km shear. Given the wind
profile, a few rotating updrafts are possible near and just south
of the frontal boundary. The lift is messy at best so thinking
tomorrow will be clusters of showers with a few more organized
thunderstorms toward early afternoon that could produce gusty
winds. A few rotating showers may have to be monitored as well and
this was mentioned in spc's discussion when they placed us in a
marginal risk for Tuesday.

By 00z, the boundary pushes north with south-southeast flow
areawide. But with the continued shortwaves aloft, plenty of
moisture around and some shear, showers and a few thunderstorms will
be ongoing Tue night. The front should move through Wed morning
through Wed evening, clearing out the rain and bringing much drier
air in its wake. A few post frontal showers are possible as the
drier air moves in.

Highs Tuesday will be cooler to the north under the rain, in the mid
70s to the upper 80s along the coast. Similar conditions expected
on Wednesday ahead of the front. Lows Tue night will be warm, in
the lower 70s, and drop to the lower 50s north and lower 60s south
on Wed night.

Long term [Thursday through Monday]
The story for Thursday is the much cooler temps with highs dropping
into the 70s and maybe a deg or two cooler for Friday. The last time
tallahassee had a high temp in the 70s was april 24 2019 when the
high hit 79 degrees. Lows on Thu night may hit the 40s in SE al and
parts of SW ga with the rest of the area in the mid 50s. Temps start
to rise for the weekend and be back in the upper 80s by Monday.

An upper low will be moving northward in the gulf with a surface low
forming along the coast on Saturday. This will bring additional rain
to the area and have upped the model blends to scattered pops for
sat- mon. Rain will hang around until another front clears it out
mid week.

Marine
Southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots shift slightly to the west
on Tuesday and will continue there until a frontal passage
Wednesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
across the waters Tuesday through Wednesday night. Behind the
front, winds are more northerly. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible again for the weekend.

Fire weather
Active weather pattern with elevated rain chances the next 2 days
will keep fire weather concerns low through Wednesday. A
stationary front will be stationed across SE alabama and southern
georgia on Tuesday leading to a chance of showers and
thunderstorms along and south of the front with low dispersions
expected north of the front. Front pushes through the area
Wednesday afternoon with increased dispersions expected in the
afternoon hours. Widespread dense fog is not expected but
increased moisture content over the region will lead to patchy fog
the next few days.

Hydrology
An end to the dry weather will be coming soon with light showers
ongoing through Tuesday. Heavier rain will impact mostly areas
north of tallahassee Tue Wed with around 1-2 inches forecast and
localized heavy rain possible. Along the coast, around half an
inch to an inch is possible. Additional prolonged rainfall looks
likely from Saturday through Wednesday but will be dependent on
the track of an upper low in the gulf. Flooding will not be a
concern.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 72 85 72 85 57 10 70 60 60 10
panama city 74 85 75 85 59 10 60 60 50 10
dothan 68 80 69 79 51 40 80 80 50 0
albany 69 79 70 80 52 50 80 80 50 0
valdosta 71 83 72 82 55 10 70 60 60 0
cross city 71 88 72 85 63 0 30 60 60 20
apalachicola 73 84 75 83 62 0 50 60 60 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Hp
short term... Ln
long term... Ln
aviation... Dobbs
marine... Ln
fire weather... Dobbs
hydrology... Ln


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42036 - W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL 43 mi43 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 81°F 1017.6 hPa74°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 50 mi63 min W 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 1017.1 hPa (+0.4)69°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport, FL69 mi70 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds78°F68°F71%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKV

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3NE3E3E4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE4E5CalmCalmE6E6NW7W6NW6CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmE5E3SE3SE3E3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm5E544Calm4S3CalmN4NW4N4Calm
2 days agoE7NE6NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4Calm--CalmN5W55W8W5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Key, Way Key, Florida
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Cedar Key
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Mon -- 02:27 AM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:58 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:07 PM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:05 PM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.43.83.73.32.61.810.40.10.41.11.92.83.53.73.63.12.41.71.10.91.11.7

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:21 AM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:57 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:02 PM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.13.43.432.41.60.90.40.30.51.11.92.73.33.53.42.92.21.510.811.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.