Sunrise 6:59 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 3:32 PM   Moonset 3:55 AM

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GMZ870 Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 To 60 Nm- 807 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Saturday - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Saturday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Monday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - North winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wednesday - East winds around 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 807 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis - Light winds and seas continue through the weekend with an onshore flow developing each afternoon along the coast as a warm and dry airmass remains in place. The next cold front will move across the waters on Monday with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms, with the best chance across the northern waters. High pressure will build back over the region in the wake of the front on Tuesday.

FXUS62 KTAE 200137 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 937 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 936 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.
Areas of fog are possible early Saturday morning, mainly across the southern half of the area.

NEAR TERM
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A broad mid-level shortwave vorticity maxima is expected to enter the lower Mississippi valley late Saturday morning, and early Saturday afternoon. This mid level forcing combined with a weakening cold front that is expected to slowly eject southward into central Alabama and Georgia Saturday afternoon will lead to a scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across SE Alabama and SW Georgia in the late afternoon and early evening. Mid 60s dewpoints combined with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, and a slight lower of heights across the region will lead to around 2000 J/Kg of SBCAPE across the region. While instability will be moderately high for the region, the amount of upper level shear will be the limiting factor. This will especially be the case as 0-6km bulk shear is forecast to be around 20-25 knots.
This will keep storm mode as clusters that may lead to outflow dominant storms through the evening. With the amount of instability across the region, the potential for hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across the aforementioned regions.
Given this threat for severe weather SPC has issued a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for portions of SE Alabama and SW Georgia.

Initially in the morning hours, areas of fog and low stratus will once again develop across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and SE Alabama, which may limit daytime temperatures from reaching the low 90s as they were initially forecasted the last couple of days.
Due to this, high temperatures were reduced to the upper 80s for much of the region.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Storms will be diminishing into early Sunday morning with spotty showers likely continuing into the early hours of Sunday and then into much of the afternoon Sunday. There's likely to be a lull in activity overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning as the region will be between passing upper level systems. The next system moves through during Sunday afternoon as the main front begins to pass through.

The main forecast challenge for Sunday will be with temperatures, and possibly a low-end severe threat. Convection from Saturday afternoon storms will likely leave a outflow boundary that lingers. North of this boundary temperatures will be slow to recover in the afternoon, and it's likely some areas will not warm up much on the north side of this boundary thanks to cloudy/rainy conditions and cooler air advecting in from the north. Further south, away from the boundary, showers/storms will be slower to arrive so we'll likely see conditions warm up into the mid 70s to low 80s, with the warmest conditions across the southeast Big Bend. These warmer conditions, with the stronger wind shear in place could allow a isolated strong storm to develop in Florida, but warmer mid-level temperatures are likely to reduce the overall severe threat compared to what's possible on Saturday.

While conditions are not likely to be this cool on Sunday, some guidance does indicate temperatures not warming up much above the low 60s across our northwest counties in southeast Alabama due to the heavy cloud cover and increase rain chances. For now, forecast temperatures across southeast Alabama are in the upper 60s, but would not be surprised if they're too high.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The front moves through by Monday with quiet and cool conditions prevailing through the beginning of the week. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s as the upper level trough passes through.

Northwesterly flow aloft will lead to no appreciable rain chances through much of next week. With sunny skies and no significant cold air advection in the northwesterly flow, expect a quick warm up with temperatures back in the mid to upper 80s by Thursday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next few hours before low stratus and fog develops. The most likely locations for fog and low stratus are ECP and TLH where it appears LIFR conditions are likely, both vsbys and cigs. Farther north, fog and low stratus and consequent flight restrictions are more uncertain. For now, have the possibility of IFR/LIFR restrictions at DHN and VLD and not at ABY. After 14-15z, we should see an improvement back to VFR. Scattered TSRA will begin developing around 20-22z near DHN and ABY, which will continue past the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Mostly benign boating conditions expected through early Sunday. A frontal system will bring scattered showers and storms to our marine waters, mostly on Sunday afternoon. As this front moves through a period of elevated winds and seas is likely Sunday afternoon through Tuesday with some period of cautionary conditions possible as winds switch to become out of the north and northeast. Quieter conditions develop for Wednesday through Friday of the upcoming week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Fog and low stratus will initially develop towards the early morning hours across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and SE Alabama Saturday morning. This fog and low stratus looks to hang around through the late morning hours prior to lifting around noon. Westerly transport winds will eventually transition to southwesterly through the afternoon hours on Saturday, while remaining around 5-10 mph.
Mixing heights will be highest across SW Georgia where early morning fog and stratus is not expected, which will lead to slightly higher dispersions across this region. Minimum RH values will drop into the mid 40s to low 50s for most interior locations, and upper 70s across coastal areas. Overall, there are no fire weather concerns on Saturday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Rain chances begin to increase for Saturday through Sunday night.
The systems will be moving somewhat quickly with rainfall accumulations not expected to exceed 1.0 inches, although isolated higher amounts may be possible.

In addition to the St Marks, Withlacoochee, and Aucilla, remaining in flood, the Suwanee has now risen into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford. Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwannee with additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 64 87 67 80 / 0 30 10 60 Panama City 66 76 67 75 / 10 10 10 60 Dothan 64 85 64 67 / 0 60 20 70 Albany 65 85 64 71 / 0 60 30 70 Valdosta 65 88 67 81 / 0 40 20 60 Cross City 62 84 65 82 / 10 0 0 30 Apalachicola 66 74 68 76 / 10 0 0 50

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Saturday for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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Cedar Key
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:19 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:32 PM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:32 PM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cedar Key, Way Key, Florida, Tide feet

Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:33 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:39 PM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:48 PM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Suwannee River entrance, Florida, Tide feet

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