Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Key, FL

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Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:30PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 1:22 PM EDT (17:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:23PMMoonset 6:19AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ870 Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 To 60 Nm- 904 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
This afternoon..East winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest early in the afternoon, then then becoming west around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning.
Thursday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming north around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..North winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest in the late morning and early afternoon, then increasing to around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Scattered Thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming west late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 904 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure remains over the area producing pleasant boating conditions over the coastal waters. Winds remain 10 knots or less through the period with seas less than 2 feet. The only hazard will be with isolated storms and enhanced sea breeze winds along the coast each afternoon/evening. No other marine impacts expected.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Key city, FL
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location: 28.66, -83.73     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 171713
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
113 pm edt Wed jul 17 2019

Aviation
[through 18z Thursday]
vfr conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period with
winds less than 10kts predominantly from the sw. With afternoon
convection there exists possibility of isolated thunderstorms with
the greatest chance near tlh and vld. Any storms that do develop
are expected to dissipate shortly after sunset. Overnight wind speeds
will decrease to near calm conditions and cloud coverage being
limited to the upper levels.

Prev discussion [958 am edt]
Near term [through today]
Deep layer ridging and seabreeze convection will be the main
features of note in today's forecast. Drier air aloft over the
western half of the tri-state region will preclude anything more
than isolated storm development. Further east, typical moisture
levels will result in a more typical coverage of storms. Have
nudged pops upward in this region with the morning update. Didn't
make any changes to the MAX temp forecast though adjusting
dewpoints a bit slightly upped the MAX heat indices. Expect
widespread 105+ apparent temperatures across north florida and
between 100-105 elsewhere.

Short term [tonight through Friday]
Even with most storms diminishing after sunset, there is some
lingering isentropic lift along a weak backdoor front that may
keep thunderstorms going through 1-2am in the big bend region.

An upper trough positioned over the northeast will drop south
through the local area providing a convergence axis for higher
coverage of storms Thu and Fri in comparison to the last few days.

Like most summer days, additional storms will fire along outflow
boundaries by late in the afternoon. Thursday looks more favorable
for an isolated severe storm with mid level dry air contributing
to dcape around 1100 j kg as well as efficient mixing (inverted v
sounding) and high surface based instability. Pw values increase
to over 2", lessening the dcape and severe wind potential for
Friday. But with the lift and a deep CAPE profile, one or two
strong storms is always possible.

Highs Thursday will be back in the mid 90s and decrease to the lower
90s on Friday with increased cloud coverage. Heat index values thu
will be around 102-106 and lower on Friday.

Long term [Friday night through Wednesday]
Weak ridging aloft will be building in from the east through the
weekend and breaking down as we get into Monday afternoon. There is
less lift Sat Sun than previous days but a weak trough over the area
will continue to provide enough lift for scattered afternoon
thunderstorms.

The base of an upper trough will start to dip into the southeast
states on Monday but only scattered storms are expected Monday as
the trough remains just to the west. Upper vort maxes along the
upper trough and ahead of the surface front will increase
thunderstorm coverage tues into Wed with higher than normal
coverage overnight as well. The weak front will generally make it
through on Wednesday but only provide a wind shift to the
northwest and an increase in rain but no relief from the heat or
dew points. A strong storm can't be ruled out for any day in the
long term but sun-tue seem to have to the best chances. Highs will
be in the lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s.

Marine
Winds through the week and the weekend will generally be less than
10 knots with seas less than 2 feet with most days seeing seas of
1 foot or less. Thunderstorm chances will be higher than previous
days with isolated to scattered thunderstorms each morning into
the afternoon.

Fire weather
Aside from high dispersion values over portions of southeast alabama
and southwest georgia this afternoon, there are no fire weather
concerns.

Hydrology
A more seasonal summertime pattern of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms can be expected through the weekend. Higher chances of
heavy rainfall are still possible in the later half of next week.

Aside from the typical, localized poor drainage flooding from
heavier downpours, there are no other flooding concerns at this time.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 73 95 74 92 74 0 40 20 40 20
panama city 77 89 77 88 77 0 20 10 30 20
dothan 74 94 74 92 74 0 30 20 50 40
albany 75 96 75 92 74 0 50 40 50 40
valdosta 73 95 73 92 74 10 50 30 40 40
cross city 75 92 75 91 74 20 40 20 30 20
apalachicola 77 90 77 88 77 0 20 10 30 20

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Harrigan
short term... Ln
long term... Ln
aviation... Harrigan bowen
marine... Ln
fire weather... Barry
hydrology... Ln


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42036 - W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL 43 mi32 min NE 1.9 G 5.8 86°F 1 ft1021.4 hPa77°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 50 mi82 min S 2.9 G 4.1 86°F 1020.9 hPa (+0.6)78°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport, FL69 mi29 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds92°F75°F60%1021 hPa

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3E44CalmNE3W6W7NW4S13NE6CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE6S5--Calm
1 day ago--N4NW8W6NW7N7SE4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmE4E5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmS6S3SE4CalmCalm
2 days ago5CalmE4CalmNW7N6N5N3CalmCalmCalmE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S5S3SE35

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Key, Way Key, Florida
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Cedar Key
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:34 AM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:43 AM EDT     1.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:24 PM EDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:39 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.333.33.43.12.72.21.81.722.63.33.94.34.33.83.12.21.30.50-0.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:21 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:37 AM EDT     1.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:31 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:49 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.222.7332.72.21.81.51.51.72.22.83.33.63.73.32.821.10.4-0.1-0.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.