Wednesday, October28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Key, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 6:50PM Wednesday October 28, 2020 1:00 AM EDT (05:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:40PMMoonset 4:04AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ870 Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 To 60 Nm- 837 Pm Edt Tue Oct 27 2020
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening, then a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning.
Wednesday..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming south around 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..West winds around 15 knots then becoming northwest toward morning. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..North winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 837 Pm Edt Tue Oct 27 2020
Synopsis..Interaction between tropical storm zeta near the yucatan peninsula and broad high pressure over the eastern seaboard will continue to produce gusty east-southeast winds around 15 knots over the gulf coast waters over the next couple of days. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible through the end of the week. Gusty winds, dangerous lightning and rough seas can be expected in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. A long period sw-w swell around 3-6 feet will propagate from tropical storm zeta as it moves through the central gulf of mexico on Wednesday. A cold front moves through the eastern gulf waters on Friday bringing a good chance of showers and storms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Key city, FL
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location: 28.66, -83.73     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 280016 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 816 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

UPDATE.

Forecast is on track. No updates required.

PREV DISCUSSION [740 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday].

As Zeta moves west of the area, increased moisture from the Gulf will continue to result in scattered areas of showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two through this evening. Rain coverage will diminish overnight with the best rain chances on Wednesday across the western third of the area closer to Zeta's influence. Lows tonight will be quite warm for this time of year with low to mid 70s. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in the 80s.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night].

By Wednesday night, Zeta is expected to be making landfall or just inland along the eastern Louisiana coastline as a Category 1 hurricane. This complex track where Zeta recurves around a subtropical ridge over the Florida Peninsula, but merges with an upper level cut-off low over Texas and Arkansas region has been honed by model guidance over the last few cycles. Once Zeta makes landfall, it is expected to move quickly to the northeast through central Alabama and into north Georgia.

Overall the major impacts expected from Zeta across our area besides the expected beach hazards of high surf and rip currents are the threat of tropical storm force winds in our western most counties, as well as a tornado threat across much of the western and central areas of our CWA.

Hazardous marine and beach conditions - swells will produce large wave heights, rough surf, and a high risk of rip currents. Tropical storm conditions are also possible over our far western waters and coastal communities.

Winds - tropical storm force winds (at least 39 mph) are possible across the western row of counties in the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama as the center of Zeta moves through the central zone of Mobiles CWA. Based off of CAM and global model solutions, a few gusts of 50-60 mph can't be ruled out for Coffee, Dale, and northwest Walton counties as the center of Zeta makes its closest approach to these counties.

Severe Weather - A strong southerly to southeasterly LLJ associated with the eastern side of ZETA is expected to move over the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning/afternoon. This LLJ will enhance the shear significantly across our region, especially as Zeta expands its windfield as it merges with the midlatitude upper level trough and associated wind field. This will translate to large looping hodographs in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere. Given the amount of shear, the slightest amount of low level instability over the area will allow for the enhancement of any out rain bands that may develop across our region Wednesday night into Thursday. Currently SPC has a slight/marginal risk on Wednesday, and a marginal risk on Thursday. As greater CAM model guidance comes into agreement, these risk categories and the threat for tornadoes may increase by tomorrow.

Overall, the weather is expected to deteriorate over the next 24-36 hours, especially across our western counties. As this warm moist airmass enters the region, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s across the region Thursday, and lows will fall into the mid 70s Wednesday night.

LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday].

Cooler/drier conditions are expected to return after the passage of Zeta and the upper level trough that is expected to clear the region Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Deep upper level ridging in conjunction with a surface high over New England will lead to a few cooler days compared to the previous week; however, the temperatures expected are close to climatology for this time of the year. An upper level trough is expected to swing through the mid-atlantic states early next work week, which will bring a dying cold front into the region. This cold front is expected to bring some of the coldest temperatures of this fall season thus far with lows in the mid to upper 40s expected across the region Tuesday night. In general, highs behind the front will be in the low 70s to upper 60s, and lows will remain mostly in the 50s for the region.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Thursday]

Showers and isolated thunderstorms currently throughout the Tri- State region will continue a general northward movement with coverage decreasing from south to north through the evening hours. Overnight, low cigs will build throughout the area in so much as each TAF will contain MVFR and some IFR cigs after midnight through mid morning with a return to VFR by late morning. Later in the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms could move into our far western Florida and southeast Alabama counties associated with TC Zeta.

MARINE.

Boating conditions are expected to continue to deteriorate through Wednesday and Thursday as swells from Zeta bring large seas and wave heights to our waters. Winds are also expected to increase starting tonight, and are expected to quickly ramp up to tropical storm force across in shore and near shore waters west of St. George island. A small craft advisory has been issued across all our waters except our farthest eastern Big Bend coastal waters. This advisory is in effect through overnight Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER.

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.

HYDROLOGY.

Increasing chances of of rain has returned today, and is expected to continue through over the next several days due to the passage of Zeta to our west. Overall, precipitation amounts across SE Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle are expected to accumulate to around 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts possible. For regions farther east, these amounts drop off to around 0.5-1 inch, and lesser amounts across our farther eastern regions. These totals are not expected to have any impact on any of our local rivers.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 74 86 75 83 56 / 10 10 20 60 10 Panama City 74 85 75 82 56 / 10 30 50 70 0 Dothan 71 84 73 81 51 / 30 30 70 70 0 Albany 71 86 74 83 55 / 40 20 30 70 0 Valdosta 71 87 73 84 57 / 30 20 10 60 20 Cross City 72 89 74 86 61 / 30 10 10 50 60 Apalachicola 75 82 76 82 57 / 10 20 20 60 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Wednesday to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-South Walton.

Tropical Storm Watch for Central Walton-Holmes-North Walton.

High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

High Surf Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Thursday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

High Surf Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 6 PM CDT Thursday for South Walton.

GA . None. AL . Tropical Storm Watch for Coffee-Geneva.

GM . Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday to 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.



UPDATE . Montgomery NEAR TERM . DVD SHORT TERM . Bunker LONG TERM . Bunker AVIATION . Bunker MARINE . Bunker FIRE WEATHER . Bunker HYDROLOGY . Bunker


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42036 - W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL 43 mi30 min E 12 G 14 1017.3 hPa
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 50 mi60 min ESE 15 G 17 78°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.5)75°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport, FL69 mi67 minESE 610.00 miOvercast78°F73°F87%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKV

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6SE8CalmE4E6E5E8E7E9SE9SE10SE11SE8SE10SE7E7E6NE9E8E8E7E6E6E6
1 day agoE5E4NE4NE3NE6NE4NE6NE4E10E9E7E8E9E7E8E9NE9E10E8E8E8E7E10E7
2 days agoE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5CalmCalm5NE5NW7NW5N5NW9NW6NW4CalmCalmNE4E4E4

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Key, Way Key, Florida
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Cedar Key
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:37 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:48 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:51 PM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:08 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.33.12.61.91.20.80.60.91.52.22.93.43.53.32.82.21.510.70.91.322.8

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:32 AM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:55 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:01 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:12 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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332.72.31.71.20.90.70.91.31.92.533.232.62.11.510.80.91.31.92.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current



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