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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 908 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. A dominant period 8 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Hazy. A slight chance of showers in the evening. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. A dominant period 8 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Hazy in the morning. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 908 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis..Hazardous boating conditions will continue into mid-week. Brisk northeasterly winds and elevated seas will remain over the open atlantic, before improving lateweek. Isolated to scattered showers and a few lightning storms are forecast. Winds will switch out of the north as another frontal boundary is forecast to enter the region late week and into the weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and seas up to 7 to 9 feet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, september 30th.
46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 27 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 18 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 040134 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 934 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION, HYDROLOGY

UPDATE
Issued at 903 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Currently-Tonight... Visibilities and air quality have began to improve this evening and into the overnight hours as conditions become less favorable for haze/smoke across the region into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, local radar imagery continues to remain somewhat active this evening as onshore northeasterly flow persists across east central Florida. Analysis charts show high pressure continuing to build across the northeastern CONUS.
Additionally, PWATs have actually risen today into the 1.2-1.5" range which has proved enough to generate isolated to scattered showers across the local Atlantic waters, as well as locations near the coast.

Isolated showers will remain possible into the overnight hours, before chances increase Wednesday morning. Some of these showers will be capable of wind gusts up to 30-40mph. Gusty showers will have the potential to drift onshore into the overnight and early morning hours, especially along and to the south of Melbourne.
Expect skies to become partly cloudy. Overnight low temperatures are on track to reach the low to mid 70s.

MARINE
Issued at 903 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Currently-Tonight... Choppy and hazardous boating conditions continue through the overnight hours with northeast winds around 15 to 20kts. Seas build up to 6 to 9 feet. Isolated showers are forecast off and on into the overnight which will have the potential to produce gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall at times.

Wed-Sat (previous discussion)...Hazardous boating conditions continue areawide thru Wed, then perhaps only for offshore legs into early Thu, as seas remain slow to subside, 5-7 ft near shore and 6-8 ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in place. A period or two of Cautionary Statements likely after the SCA ends.
Seas 3-5 ft late Thu-Sat. Wind speeds begin to diminish Wed overnight into the extended. ISOLD-WDLY SCT shower chances. Can't rule out an ISOLD lightning storm, especially over the Gulf Stream. A weakening "cool" front does approach the local waters late on Sat.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 903 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Visibilities have improved as smoke continues to dissipate across the region through the overnight hours. Potential for slight reductions to visibility (especially near the Treasure Coast) due to smoke from distant wildfires in Quebec, Canada, although confidence isn't high enough to keep it in the TAFs.
Winds remain in the 6-12kt range from the northeast. VCSH at most terminals into the early overnight hours, then returning by Wednesday morning as onshore flow persists.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 903 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Wed-Wed Night...The Florida peninsula remains sandwiched in between weak low pressure aloft over the western Atlc and high pressure over the NW GoMex. This is promoting northerly winds in the mid-levels (H500) overhead. At the surface, high pressure keeps a firm grasp across the eastern CONUS and centered just north of the mid Atlc. Lower pressures continue across the FL Straits and thus our fairly tight pressure gradient will give us one more day of breezy (15-20 mph) NERLY winds across ECFL. Wind speeds will slowly diminish thru the evening and overnight. Enough coastal convergence/ample moisture will remain present for SCT (30-40pct) onshore-moving showers to continue in the forecast. The trend decreases (15-30pct) further into the interior. Afternoon temperatures will remain near-normal, with highs in the L80s for the immediate coast and M80s (perhaps a few U80s) further inland.
The deep onshore flow will keep overnight mins slightly above normal, in the M70s at the coast and U60s to L70s interior.

Thu-Tue...Surface high pressure holds on across the eastern U.S.
into Thu, then is forecast to weaken and forced seaward with the approach of a cold front and accompanying upper trough. This weakening surface boundary is still forecast to slide south across the FL peninsula this weekend. High pressure behind this latest front will move into the area late into the weekend and early next week, though on a weakening trend. Over the last 24 hours, PoPs have decreased in the extended across much of the area. For the moment will keep chances at 20pct or less Thu-Sun, and 20-30pct into early next week. Even with the front this weekend, this system will remain moisture-starved with only minimal upper support this far south.

A slight bump up for highs on Thu-Sat (pre-frontal), M-U80s, then post-frontal on Sun maxes will be knocked back down into the U70s to L80s - north of the Treasure Coast. Highs on Mon areawide in the U70s to L80s and then a slight trend back upward on Tue (L80s). Overnight lows in the U60s to L70s (M70s barrier islands), then a majority of ECFL may fall into the 60s for lows Sat-Mon overnight periods, with the immediate Space/Treasure coasts remaining in the L70s.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

The St. Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain within Moderate Flood Stage into late week as breezy northeast winds continue.

In addition, runoff from successive days of heavy rainfall, combined with breezy northeast winds and above normal tides will lead to further rises along the Saint Johns River above Lake Harney and Sanford, with river levels forecast to reach Action Stage of 6.0 feet above Lake Harney and 4.2 feet at Sanford later this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 83 74 84 / 30 30 10 20 MCO 73 86 72 88 / 30 30 10 10 MLB 75 85 74 86 / 40 40 20 10 VRB 75 86 74 87 / 40 40 20 20 LEE 71 86 70 87 / 20 10 0 10 SFB 72 86 72 87 / 20 30 10 10 ORL 74 86 72 88 / 20 30 10 10 FPR 74 86 74 87 / 40 40 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575.

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Titusville
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Wed -- 03:07 AM EDT     4.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:23 AM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:21 PM EDT     4.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:48 PM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:21 PM EDT     4.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Titusville, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet

Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:09 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:55 PM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:20 PM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida, Tide feet

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