Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jones Creek, TX

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Chances for showers/storms continue into Friday mainly for areas north of I-10 as another embedded shortwave passes through the area.
PW values will still generally be near the 90th percentile (~1.60"), so we could see some locally heavy downpours as we have seen over the past few days. However, going into late Friday, we'll begin to see mid to upper level ridging build in that'll prevail into early next week. This will take rain chances on a decreasing trend and temperatures on an increasing trend heading into the weekend...especially with 850mb temperatures trending towards the 90th percentile going into the weekend/early next week. So, that means we'll go from high temperatures in the upper 80s on Friday and add a degree or two each day going into early next week. That'll take us with plenty of locations around or above the 90°F mark on Monday.

Rain chances do look to return around the middle part of next week as an upper level trough approaches from the western CONUS and pushes the ridge axis eastward. This next system may have another frontal boundary nearby with plenty of moisture to work with, so we'll have to monitor for another round of heavy rain potential...just keep in mind there's still a lot uncertainty. The increasing rain chances does trim down temperatures a bit. Speaking of temperatures, expect low temperatures to range from the upper 60s to low 70s through the weekend and in the low to mid 70s early next week.

Batiste

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

MVFR ceilings will steadily fill in from south to north over the next few hours. A few spots (SGR/LBX/CXO) may see intermittent decreased visibilities due to patchy fog, but upper level cloud cover streaming in from the west may inhibit its development.
Speaking of that, we are monitoring a line of strong thunderstorms over Central Texas currently that is anticipated to move into Southeast Texas later this morning. The timing remains uncertain as high-resolution model guidance is unsure on if we get a line of storms from the west, from the northwest, or a combination of both...so take the timing of the PROB30s in the TAFs with a grain of salt.

Based on radar trends and synoptic flow aloft, we are leaning towards the western line of storms being the main show later this morning into the afternoon hours. Winds will be locally higher around these storms, but prevailing winds will be southeasterly around 8-12kt in the morning and afternoon. Scattered showers/storms may linger behind the main line, but there's also potential for all of the energy to be taken out of the atmosphere leaving nothing behind the line of storms. So, to say that uncertain is high would be an understatement. MVFR ceilings are expected to fill in again late Wednesday night from south to north...and those decreased ceilings may linger along the coast throughout the day.

Batiste

MARINE
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Latest runs of high resolution model guidance shows a cluster of thunderstorms moving into Southeast Texas and off the coast on Wednesday late morning/afternoon. Exact timing is still a bit uncertain at the moment, but strong winds, locally higher seas, frequent lightning, and heavy rain will be possible with these storms as they push into the bays and off the coast. Outside of that, light to occasionally moderate southeasterly winds will persist throughout the week. Around and after midweek, an extended southeasterly fetch develops across the Gulf leading to an increase in winds and wave heights potentially reaching caution flag criteria. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist throughout most of the week as Gulf moisture interacts with various upper level disturbances, but will generally decrease each day after today.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 82 69 87 69 / 70 20 60 10 Houston (IAH) 82 70 86 71 / 70 10 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 73 82 73 / 60 10 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.