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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 415 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers early this morning. Patchy fog early this morning.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 415 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis.. Areas of sea fog will continue to linger along the coast this morning, mainly from around the tampa bay and to the south. The fog should lift out by later this morning, with a few showers possible as well. Winds will increase Tuesday night and Wednesday, with small craft exercise caution of small craft advisory headlines possibly being needed before subsiding Wednesday night and Thursday.

FXUS62 KTBW 041133 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 633 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Early morning IR and water vapor satellite imagery is showing a band of cirrus clouds streaming across northern Florida associated with a slow moving cold front. As this front gradually works south, moisture pooling to the south of the boundary has allowed both sea fog and land based fog to develop across much of the area this morning. This fog is forecast to lift out by mid morning. Moisture over running the front is also causing stratus over the northern half of the forecast area, which is forecast to linger through the morning before clearing out by early afternoon. Otherwise, some isolated showers will be possible along the frontal boundary today, but heavy rain is not anticipated.

Cooler air will fill in behind the front, with lows ranging from around 50 north to the low 60s south tonight and mid 40s to around 60 Wednesday morning. As a deep upper level trough digs into the southeastern US during the middle of the week, a secondary cold front push will enhance the cold air advection, leading to increasingly cool temperatures Wednesday and Wednesday night under breezy northwest winds. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to only top out in the low 60s north to around 70 south, with Thursday morning lows in the mid to upper 30s over the Nature Coast, and 40s to low 50s from around the Tampa Bay south. Winds will turn to northeasterly on Thursday and start to subside, allowing for temperatures to moderate Thursday through Saturday under mostly sunny skies.

By Sunday, another strong upper level trough is forecast to be swinging through the eastern US, dragging a strong cold front into Florida. While it's too early to nail down the exact timing of the front, global models are in good agreement with showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the frontal passage on Sunday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

A warm, humid SSW flow favors the continuation of IFR/LIFR impacts this morning at area terminals through 14-16Z from a combination of land fog, sea fog, and low clouds. By late morning, daytime heating should lift CIGs to MVFR, but not unlike yesterday, CIGs are unlikely to completely lift to VFR until the afternoon. Later today, a cold front is expected to sweep through, with a shift to a northerly wind flow and improving conditions that last through the work week.

MARINE
Dense sea fog will continue to be possible through mid morning along and south of a frontal boundary moving south through the waters, mainly from around the Tampa Bay south. Winds will turn to out of the northwest and north behind the front today and Tuesday, generally remaining less than 15 knots. A secondary cold front push late Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring wind speeds up to around Small Craft Exercise Caution or perhaps Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds will turn to northeasterly and subside Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds in north of the waters.

FIRE WEATHER
No humidity concerns. Areas of dense fog will be possible through mid morning today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 60 73 57 / 20 0 0 0 FMY 82 61 78 56 / 20 0 0 0 GIF 81 57 73 51 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 80 60 74 58 / 20 0 0 0 BKV 78 52 71 48 / 20 0 0 0 SPG 76 62 70 59 / 20 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters.

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Chassahowitzka
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Mon -- 02:03 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EST     0.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:44 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:12 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:11 PM EST     0.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chassahowitzka, Chassahowitzka River, Florida, Tide feet

Chassahowitzka
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Mon -- 05:18 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:56 AM EST     0.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:44 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:15 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:24 PM EST     0.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chassahowitzka, Chassahowitzka River, Florida (2), Tide feet

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