Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Homosassa, FL

UPDATE
Arctic airmass over the region produced numerous record low temps and dangerous wind chills this morning. Daytime temps very slow to increase with well below climate normals for today for a cold Veterans Day in FL. Very low humidity combined with gusty winds to produce hazardous fire conditions today and have expanding warned areas to N of I-4. This mornings hazards expiring shortly while latest grids and forecasts updated to highlight all expected hazards after 9am today.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue next 24 hrs as gusty northerly winds this morning decrease late in the day and tonight.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Highly amplified flow aloft with deep E CONUS trough and W CONUS ridge this morning coupled with a strong surface high centered over the S/Central U.S. and N Gulf enabling cold Canadian air mass to filter into the state via strong to occasionally gusty northerly winds. As has been advertised, potential for record lows this morning along with record low maximum daytime high temps this afternoon continues, with morning lows from the upper 20s far north to upper 30s/around 40 far south struggling to climb only into mostly the upper 50s/around 60 this afternoon area wide...
representing about a 15-25 degree departure below average. Given winds 10-15 mph with higher gusts through the morning, expect wind chills bottoming out in the 20s this morning north and central and lower/mid 30s elsewhere. While winds are expected to gradually diminish during the afternoon, a period of Red Flag conditions will be possible as relative humidities drop below 35 percent area wide before the winds diminish.

The pattern aloft de-amplifies through the remainder of the week, but not before another night of cold temps tonight/Wednesday morning as the surface high shifts east and settles over the area enabling strong radiational cooling as winds diminish further under clear skies. While low temps will be a few degrees warmer particularly along and south of I-4, some Nature Coast areas northward will once again approach freezing, accompanied by potential areas of frost. The air mass will continue gradually modifying with afternoon highs reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s Wednesday afternoon, with overnight lows through the remainder of the week warming through the 40s into the 50s by the weekend, while afternoon highs warm back into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Rain free conditions are expected to persist at least into the weekend with only a slight chance of a shower perhaps late weekend into early next week.

MARINE
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Continued hazardous boating conditions with strong northerly winds and associated elevated seas. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon with northerly winds of 20 to 30 knots with higher gusts. Winds will gradually diminish by this evening and generally remain 15 knots or less out of the northeast to north through the remainder of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Elevated fire threat today as very dry air continues filtering into the area with gusty northerly winds. RH values drop below critical levels by late morning while winds remain elevated leading to a period of RFW conditions through much of the afternoon, mainly confined to areas south of I-4. Winds diminish by evening lowering the overall threat, and remain below 15 mph through the remainder of the week although periods of critical RH values will remain possible during the next few afternoons.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 61 43 72 51 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 62 45 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 59 41 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 61 42 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 59 31 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 60 50 70 55 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.