Tuesday, September17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homosassa, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:34PM Tuesday September 17, 2019 6:39 AM EDT (10:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:51PMMoonset 9:08AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 416 Am Edt Tue Sep 17 2019
Today..North winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming east around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming west early in the afternoon, then then becoming northwest around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers in the evening.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Friday night..East winds around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Saturday..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 416 Am Edt Tue Sep 17 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure holds over the eastern gulf today and tonight with generally light winds and seas. Light winds and seas are expected for most of Wednesday, however, an approaching front from the northeast is likely to bring a round of late day showers and storms. These showers end Wednesday night, but easterly winds quickly increase to cautionary levels Thursday into Friday. A period of advisory level winds and seas is possible Thursday night. Mariners planning to boat on the eastern gulf later this week should Monitor the latest forecast for updates on these anticipated rough conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homosassa, FL
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location: 28.78, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 170710
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
310 am edt Tue sep 17 2019

Synopsis
07z water vapor and h4 rap analysis showing a highly amplified
northern stream upper level pattern over north america. Split flow
arriving over british columbia dives south into a sharp trough
along the pacific northwest coat before a rapid cyclonic turn
northward into a broad and amplified upper ridge extending over
the middle section of the conus, northward into central canada.

The flow then finally dives back to the southeast, carving out a
broad trough over new england and nova scotia. It is this slowly
amplifying trough that is expected to capture hurricane humberto,
now spinning of the southeast CONUS coast, and eject the system
northeastward into the north atlantic.

Closer to home, the florida peninsula resides under a deep layer
nw W flow between hurricane humberto and an area of upper ridging in
place across the NW caribbean SE gulf of mexico. The 00z ktbw
sounding profile still showed an appreciable pwat value over west-
central florida around 1.84" (right about normal for mid-september),
however, a much drier column will be arriving from the north nw
within the mean flow through the next 12 hours. The 00z ktlh
sounding from NWS tallahassee sampled this drier column not far to
our northwest with a pwat value of only 1.18".

At the surface, the pressure gradient is becoming rather light as
hurricane humberto continues to drift east NE away from the region,
and a weak ridge of continental high pressure attempts to build down
over the region and eastern gulf. The radar is very quiet early this
morning and with the drier air starting to arrive as we speak, think
this quiet nature will continue through the duration of the day.

Short term (today through Wednesday)
Today tonight... Benign weather day on tap for the region. A much
drier column airmass will be working southward through the florida
peninsula, with most reliable ensemble members showing pwats
dropping below 1.5" for all areas by early this afternoon (some
areas considerably below 1.5"). This drier air will keep the
forecast rain-free for all areas today and tonight. Not much in the
way of clouds will allow for maximum insolation through the
afternoon hours, and temperatures are going to respond, reaching the
middle 90s for most. Lower 90s can be expected close to the coast
where onshore flow develops after 12 1pm. Seasonable
temperatures... Mainly in the lower to middle 70s are in the forecast
for lows tonight.

Wednesday... Global guidance showing an interesting flow pattern
developing aloft during Wednesday. Stronger flow diving down the
eastern seaboard around the backside of hurricane humberto is shown
to propel a pseudo-backdoor frontal system across the region from ne
to sw. This frontal system should be exiting the fl west coast and
across the eastern gulf of mexico by later Wednesday night. Most
ensemble members are showing just enough moisture pooling (pwats
back up toward 1.7-1.8") and focus for ascent along this boundary,
especially when it interacts with the west coast sea-breeze, to
force a round of scattered late day showers. These shower chances
will be greatest near the coast within this enhanced convergence
zone. Shower chances then push westward into the gulf of mexico with
the boundary Wednesday night. A significant intrusion of drier
column air is then forecast to arrive in the wake of this boundary
for Thursday. More on this drier air in the long term discussion
below.

Long term (Thursday through next Monday)
A significant push of dry air arrives from the northeast on Thursday
in the wake of a frontal boundary. This airmass will again make rain
potential very low across the region. There may be just enough
moisture in the very lowest levels to support a few speed
convergence showers developing along the fl east coast and moving
inland, however, it is unlikely any of these make it far enough to
impact sumter, polk, highlands counties... And therefore have pops
10% or less for all areas. What may be most significant for us with
this airmass is that with good diurnal mixing during the day, we
will mix down some rather comfortable air for mid-september.

Dewpoints Thursday afternoon are likely to drop into the 60s for
many of us. These dewpoints would feel rather pleasant compared to
the humid summer air we have experienced for several months.

Friday into the weekend we watch a disorganized tropical wave slowly
migrate westward toward and through the florida straits. This system
will increase the moisture levels the most across south florida, and
rain chances will be highest well south of i-4. However, the trend
has been further north with the moisture return the past few model
runs, so have added at least low end rain chances for areas up into
tampa bay polk county for the weekend (especially in the
afternoon). This general pattern persists into Monday.

Aviation (17 06z through 18 06z)
Vfr conditions expected to prevail through the forecast period. Dry
air in place will keep rain chances very low. Light variable to
north flow through the morning hours becomes northwest 10-15 knots
in the afternoon early evening.

Marine
High pressure holds over the eastern gulf today and tonight with
generally light winds and seas. Light winds and seas are expected
for most of Wednesday, however, an approaching front from the
northeast is likely to bring a round of late day showers and storms.

These showers end Wednesday night, but easterly winds quickly
increase to cautionary levels Thursday into Friday. A period of
advisory level winds and seas is possible Thursday night. Mariners
planning to boat on the eastern gulf later this week should monitor
the latest forecast for updates on these anticipated rough
conditions.

Fire weather
Drier conditions this week in terms of rain chances and dewpoints
compared to what we have seen the past several months. A few late
day showers, especially near the coast on Wednesday, but otherwise,
very low rain chances the next several days. Relative humidity
during the afternoon hours will be lower than we have seen lately,
but still remain above critical levels, and no significant fire
weather concerns are anticipated the next several days.

No significant smoke or fog concerns through the middle of the week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 93 75 93 73 0 0 40 10
fmy 93 74 92 73 0 0 40 10
gif 95 73 93 72 0 0 30 0
srq 93 75 93 73 0 0 40 20
bkv 94 71 93 71 0 0 40 10
spg 93 76 93 74 0 0 40 20

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Mroczka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 24 mi106 min Calm G 0 83°F 1013.3 hPa
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 30 mi40 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 80°F 1013.7 hPa (-0.0)78°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 44 mi106 min Calm G 0 80°F 1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crystal River Airport, FL10 mi1.7 hrsN 07.00 miFair72°F71°F100%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKV

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3------NE8N6N54W8W11W12
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for Tuckers Island, Homosassa River, Florida
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Tuckers Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:37 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:43 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 PM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.40.71.11.41.61.51.10.80.40.2000.10.40.81.31.61.61.41.10.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Mangrove Pt., Crystal Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.