Victoria, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Victoria, TX

June 17, 2024 8:43 AM CDT (13:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM
Moonrise 3:37 PM   Moonset 2:06 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ237 Expires:202406172230;;164934 Fzus54 Kcrp 170903 Cwfcrp
coastal waters forecast for texas national weather service corpus christi tx 403 am cdt Mon jun 17 2024
middle texas coastal waters from baffin bay to matagorda ship channel out to 60 nautical miles. Seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz236-237-172230- copano, aransas, and redfish bays- san antonio, mesquite, and espiritu santo bays- 403 am cdt Mon jun 17 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through Tuesday morning - .

Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to around 20 knots late. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Hazy.

Tonight - Southeast winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Hazy.

Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy to occasionally rough. Hazy in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely.

Tuesday night - East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy to occasionally rough. Thunderstorms likely. Showers.

Wednesday - East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy to occasionally rough. Showers, Thunderstorms.

Wednesday night - East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy to occasionally rough. Showers, Thunderstorms.

Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Thursday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.

Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 403 Am Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024

Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
moderate to strong onshore winds will develop this afternoon becoming strong Tuesday and continue through Thursday. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible Wednesday through Thursday. Wave heights are expected to increase to 8-13 feet across the coastal waters this week, especially if a tropical depression or tropical storm develops in the southwestern gulf of mexico. The national hurricane center has a high, 70% chance of development in the next 7 days. Regardless of tropical development, deep moisture will move into the area resulting in a 50-90% chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Victoria, TX
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Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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FXUS64 KCRP 171129 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 629 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Key a close eye on the Tropics

Overall, today will be hot and muggy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly along the coast and over the gulf waters as gulf moisture begins to surge into the region. Radar was already picking up scattered showers along the coast reflective of the 2 inch PWAT lurking just off the coast. Heat Indices will range from 105 to 109. Winds will steadily increase over the marine areas as the pressure gradient tightens from the approaching gulf disturbance. Have been observing occasional gusts near 25 knots already this morning. Have hoisted SCA's for this afternoon when winds should be more steady above 20 knots, but this may need to be initiated sooner if observations indicate. Due to increasing winds and swell period over 9 seconds expect a high risk of rip currents to begin tonight with steadily increasing water levels, which could approach adisory thresholds overnight.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Tropical development probability holding at 70% - Development likely.

- Heavy rain potential increasing - Moderate ERO for Wednesday/Wednesday night.

- Moderate to high chance of coastal flooding and dangerous rip currents by early to mid-week.

We are continuing to monitor for potential tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico this week. NHC puts the probability of development at 60% in 48 hours and 70% for the 7 day period. There is still considerable uncertainty with how this evolves and where exactly landfall would be, but regardless of this, we are most likely to be on the wet side of this system with several inches of rain possible Tuesday through the end of the week. P-ETSS guidance indicates the potential for 3FT MSL which would equate to around 2FT of inundation Wednesday into Thursday. This would potentially warrant a coastal flood warning down the road.

Circling back around to rainfall, the amount of moisture pushing into Texas is impressive with PWAT values on a couple of models topping out around 3" - for context, the CRP PWAT climatology (from SPC's website) indicates 3" is an all-time record value, with the second highest at 2.86. QPF maxs have drifted back toward our forecast area for the mid-week period, and a widespread heavy rain event is looking more likely. An area average 3-5 inches seems reasonable at this point with more like 5-8 inches near the coast.
Isolated amounts even higher than this are possible within some of the banding features. The period with the greatest potential for heavy rain looks to be Tuesday night through Wednesday night at this time. Flash flooding and river flooding will be a growing concern.
In terms of the excessive rainfall outlooks, we have a slight risk for Tuesday/Tuesday night along the coast. For Wednesday/Wednesday Night, eastern and northern portions of the area are in a moderate risk with a slight risk over the rest of the area.

While not the greatest concern with this system, the wind field does look to spread pretty far north of the center and we could see winds of 30kts with gusts to around 40 kts (~35G45mph) over the waters and areas near the coast.

As mentioned, there is still plenty of uncertainty in how this evolves. All of the parameters mentioned above could change with time, so continue to monitor the latest forecasts and outlooks.

Conditions improve late in the week as the disturbance moves west of the area. One other thing to note - if the current expectations hold, temperatures will be well below normal mid-week, and only rebound slightly late in the week. High temperatures are currently forecast in the 80s for Wednesday/Thursday, sneaking back up into the lower 90s for late in the week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Expect VFR conditions across the region today with isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms streaming in across the Coastal Bend from the gulf. Winds will increase from the southeast with gusts around 25 knots along the coast this afternoon.
Diurnal winds will gust near 30 knots along the Rio Grande impacting the LRD-COT terminals this evening. Winds decrease overnight and become more easterly. Expect showers to continue along the coast through daybreak Tuesday with VFR conditions continuing.

MARINE
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Onshore winds will becoming moderate to strong this afternoon and Tonight with SCAs likely. Strong onshore winds expected to develop Tuesday and continue through Thursday. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible Wednesday through Thursday. Wave heights are expected to increase to 8-13 feet across the coastal waters this week, especially if a tropical depression or tropical storm develops in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has a high, 70% chance of development in the next 7 days. Regardless of tropical development, deep moisture will move into the area resulting in a 50-90% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 93 79 91 77 / 30 30 60 70 Victoria 92 76 89 74 / 50 10 50 50 Laredo 101 78 98 77 / 0 0 20 20 Alice 97 76 93 75 / 20 10 50 50 Rockport 93 82 91 79 / 50 40 70 70 Cotulla 102 79 99 78 / 0 0 10 10 Kingsville 96 78 91 76 / 30 20 60 60 Navy Corpus 91 83 90 80 / 50 50 70 80

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for TXZ245-342>345-347-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
VCAT2 23 mi55 minSSE 15G17 83°F 85°F29.77
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 32 mi55 minESE 8G12 85°F 86°F29.77
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 40 mi55 minE 17G19 84°F 87°F29.79
AWRT2 42 mi55 minSSE 12G15 85°F 86°F29.77
MBET2 44 mi55 minS 18G20 85°F 87°F29.76


Wind History for Port Lavaca, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KVCT VICTORIA RGNL,TX 5 sm52 minSE 0810 smClear82°F75°F79%29.80
KPKV CALHOUN COUNTY,TX 20 sm28 minSSE 0710 smPartly Cloudy86°F79°F79%29.81
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Wind History graph: VCT
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Tide / Current for Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas
   
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Port Lavaca
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Mon -- 03:04 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:05 AM CDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:34 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:26 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet
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Tide / Current for Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port O'Connor
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Mon -- 03:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:29 AM CDT     0.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:02 PM CDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas   
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Corpus Christi, TX,




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