Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 1:20 PM   Moonset 1:51 AM

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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 906 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - Winds becoming north to northeast around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Showers ending this evening.Friday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, easing to around 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, easing to smooth in the late morning and afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Saturday - East winds around 5 knots, backing to northeast around 5 knots late in the morning, veering to southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Sunday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 906 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
a thin band of storms will continue pushing off the coast this evening. Wind gusts to 40 knots and chaotic seas can be expected in and near the stronger cells. Another disturbance is expected to move up the coast from the southwest in the mid morning and early afternoon hours and provide another chances of showers and Thunderstorms. Any stronger cells with this activity will probably be in the gulf waters rather than the bays. Light offshore winds should transition back to the southeast this weekend.

FXUS64 KCRP 162328 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 628 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) of Severe Storms across the Victoria Crossroads through tonight.

- A Marginal to Slight Risk of Severe Storms on Friday with the Slight Risk being across the eastern portions of South Texas.

- A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across the Victoria Crossroads tonight.

Models are having trouble with timing of embedded short waves aloft ahead of an approaching long wave trough. There is also uncertainty with the timing of a cold front or outflow boundary from ongoing convection currently moving into the Hill Country and whether it will stall north of S TX or across S TX by Friday. These features will dictate where, when and how strong storms become. What is known is that the environment is very unstable and there is ample moisture in place across the region, but there is also a strong capping inversion.

Mainly showers have occurred across S TX today due to the cap inhibiting deeper convection, along with the fact that there currently is little to no low level forcing. That will change once the cold front/outflow boundary sinks southward toward S TX. This will also coincide with an embedded short wave tracking northeast across the region.

It is expected that there will be two rounds of storms with the first round late this afternoon into evening hours, mainly across the Victoria Crossroads due to the cap weakening across that area allowing for deeper convection. A few hours of generally quiet weather is expected behind those storms through overnight. The second round, based on short range models, is progged to develop across Mexico southwest of the area around 09-12Z and move northeast as another embedded short lifts to the northeast. In addition, the main trough will also be nearing the area leading to increasing upper level diffluence as a 105-110kt upper jet sinks southward across the area. The boundary is forecast to stall across S TX (if it can get this far south) between 09-18Z Friday. This boundary will provide strong low level moisture convergence where ever it stalls.

Most models prog that convection will shift from southwest to northeast with the embedded short wave, but the models differ on when it will move into the Rio Grande Plains with models ranging anywhere from 09Z to 15Z and exiting the region to the northeast between 18-23Z Friday afternoon. Rain chances range from low to medium (20-50%) across the Victoria area tonight and low to medium (20-40%) across S TX on Friday.

The overall time frame is this afternoon through Friday afternoon.
Given the instability and abundant moisture combined with the upper and lower support, some storms could become strong to severe with damaging wind being the main threat and hail being the secondary threat. The threat of tornadoes is very low (<5%), but can not be ruled out. The Storms Prediction Center has placed the Victoria Crossroads in a Slight Risk of severe weather through tonight and the eastern half of S TX on Friday with a Marginal Risk across the west.

The Weather Prediction Center has placed the Victoria Crossroads in a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall through tonight. Rainfall totals are expected to be one inch or less, but some locations, mainly across the Victoria Crossroads, could have up to 2-3 inches leading to localized flooding of low lying and urban areas.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Temperatures trend warmer through Tuesday

▶ A Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts from dangerous heat next week across much of South Texas

As an upper level disturbance moves east of Texas, this will allow for ridging to build over the state, ushering in drier conditions aloft. The lack of moisture combined with subsidence will preclude any rain/storm chances throughout the long term period as we remain under strong mid-level ridging and a dry vertical profile. The synoptic pattern is going to remain quasi zonal and quiet as most disturbances stay in the higher latitudes.

PWAT's of around 1.25" (GEFS mean) are progged to remain below the normal value (~1.50" for mid May) through the first half of next week but will steadily rise to near or slightly above normal in response to weak to moderate onshore flow helping to promote an increase in low level moisture. As moisture and surface temperatures both increase so does the heat index and the risk for heat related illness. Tuesday looks to be the peak with a Heat Index around 110- 115 degrees across much of the region except northeast where a more modest 105 degrees is expected. The rest of the work week, look for heat indices around 105-110 across the CWA Regardless, these conditions will result in a Moderate to Major risk for heat related illnesses. This level of heat can affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Please be prepared for the heat and take proper precautions to stay cool and hydrated.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

MVFR conditions are expected across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads through the period, largely due to haze. It is possible that the haze could reach COT and LRD, but have left this out of the TAF due to uncertainty and low chances. MVFR ceilings will develop overnight for all. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Plains this evening and tonight. A few of these could be strong to severe. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected around dawn and could persist into the afternoon. A few of these could be strong to severe as well.



MARINE
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Moderate onshore flow will decrease to under 15 knots tonight, then becoming light by Friday. There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms across the bays and nearshore waters tonight, mainly north of Port Aransas. If a storm does develop, there is a low chance they could become strong to severe. There is a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms continuing into Friday.
Rain chances decrease Friday night, followed by drier conditions Saturday. Weak onshore flow may be variable at times veering northeast briefly Saturday before returning to onshore flow. Flow increases to weak to moderate early Monday and prevails through the work week. Chances for rain or thunderstorms during the period is extremely low, less than 10%.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 76 91 75 95 / 10 30 10 0 Victoria 72 86 69 94 / 70 30 10 0 Laredo 74 95 74 102 / 10 30 0 0 Alice 74 90 71 97 / 10 40 10 0 Rockport 76 87 75 91 / 30 40 10 0 Cotulla 73 93 72 100 / 10 20 20 0 Kingsville 75 91 74 96 / 10 40 10 0 Navy Corpus 79 89 78 91 / 20 30 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Port Lavaca
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Thu -- 02:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:12 AM CDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:17 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:28 PM CDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM CDT     Sunset
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Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Port O'Connor
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Thu -- 02:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:16 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:38 PM CDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:10 PM CDT     Sunset
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Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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