Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Belleview, FL

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 211 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025

Thursday...Cold High pressure builds to the Northwest of the area over the Central US and cold air advection will clear skies, but despite full sunshine, highs will remain well below normal in the lower 50s across SE GA and mid/upper 50s across NE FL. Brisk Northwest winds will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph and will continue through the afternoon hours.

Thursday Night...Cold high pressure builds closer to the region, but center remains to the NW of the local area over the SE US states, along with elevated North winds at 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the Atlantic Coast, this will set up more of an advective freeze situation with low temps well below normal and expect a Hard Freeze across inland SE GA with lows in the middle 20s, while lows in the upper 20s/around 30F are expected across coastal SE GA and most of inland NE FL with a Light Freeze expected. The north flow by sunrise Friday morning will keep the NE FL Coastal Counties/I-95 corridor and St. Johns River Basin to the south of Jacksonville likely just above freezing with lows in the 33-37F range. Another impact in this period will be the wind chill values, as they are expected to reach Cold Weather Advisory Criteria in the 15-20F range across all of SE GA and 20-25F range across most of NE FL, except for the Atlantic Coastal areas south of JAX.

Friday...Cold high pressure slides East into the Carolinas and surface flow becomes more Northeast and breezy at 15-20G25-30 mph along the Atlantic Coast and 10-15G20-25 mph over inland areas, but this will not modify temps much under Mostly Sunny skies as highs remain well below normal and only in the upper 40s/near 50F across SE GA and coastal NE FL and into the lower/middle 50s across inland NE FL.

Friday Night...The onshore flow will keep the Atlantic Coast and most of NE FL above freezing, but another Light Freeze with lows in the upper 20s/near 30F is expected across all of inland SE GA and likely southward into the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL, along with wind chill values in the upper 20s/lower 30s, likely just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025

Saturday...High pressure builds off the Carolinas and into the Western Atlantic, while a coastal trough develops over the local Atlantic waters with a few showers there, while over the land areas expect dry conditions to continue with a slight upward tick in Max temps into the 60s, but still below normal under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temps expected to remain above freezing Saturday night falling into the upper 30s inland SE GA and in the 40s elsewhere.

Sunday...Long range models still trying to push a mid level disturbance through the region from the North Gulf and into the Atlantic but confidence remains low in rainfall chances at this time, but for now the model blends are still supporting a slight chance of showers area-wide, with best chances across NE FL as disturbance appears to be trending southward with each run. Temps remain slightly below normal with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s inland SE GA and 40s elsewhere Sunday Night.

Monday...Models pushing a High pressure center pushing Eastward from the Gulf Coast region and settling across the Florida Peninsula. Expect a better chance of skies becoming Mostly Clear and with airmass source region not as cold, expect temps to rebound to near normal values with highs in the mid/upper 60s SE GA and upper 60s/near 70F across NE FL. Lows generally near 40F over inland areas and in the 40s near the Atlantic Coast Monday Night.

Tuesday...Next frontal boundary approaches the region from the Northwest across the SE US states, but appears to be much weaker and mainly dry when it reaches the local area on Tuesday Night.
West to Southwest flow ahead of this boundary will push Max Temps to above normal levels and warmest during the entire forecast period, back into the lower/middle 70s area-wide. Lows generally in the 40s for Tuesday Night.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025

No significant changes since the last forecast package as rain overspreads the region and ceilings and vsbys slowly lower.
Expecting IFR cigs and vsbys for all airfields by later this morning, with cigs forecast to drop if LIFR levels by this evening. There will be several modest shifts in wind direction through this afternoon and evening as low pressure moves almost directly across area terminals, in addition to an increase in wind speeds near or just above 10 kts for most or all sites.
Improvement in ceiling restrictions does not look to occur until just after the 12Z Thursday time frame at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 211 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025

Low pressure will move across area waters later today, with an associated cold front then passing through tonight. Widespread showers as well as breezy conditions will accompany the low today, with an increase in northwesterly flow tonight behind the front and low. Cool/dry conditions as well as a brisk flow will persist through the end of the week as high pressure builds into the region. Another chance for rain will occur this weekend as a mostly dry front pushes through the area, with weaker high pressure building in its wake towards the beginning on next week.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk will remain moderate today as low pressure passes over the area. Breezy flow generally along the shore will keep the risk moderate for Thursday as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 53 36 50 25 / 90 20 0 0 SSI 59 39 53 32 / 100 40 0 0 JAX 62 40 56 31 / 100 40 0 0 SGJ 67 44 59 36 / 80 40 0 0 GNV 66 43 59 31 / 70 40 0 0 OCF 73 47 61 32 / 70 30 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-237- 240-322-340-422-425-522.

GA...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for GAZ154-166.

Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ470-472-474.