Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Smyrna Beach, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Today-Tonight...Quasi-zonal flow aloft is forecast across the Florida peninsula today as troughing begins to organize in the mid- levels across the central U.S. A weak ridge axis establishes itself across the area, with light southwest winds present prior to the development of a weak sea breeze thanks to temperatures warming into the mid 80s. The sea breeze is anticipated to remain fairly pinned along the coast, and isolated shower development cannot be ruled out as the west coast sea breeze moves across the peninsula and interacts with the pinned east coast breeze.
Maintain a 20% chance of rain primarily from Orlando to the Cape and areas southward. If activity manages to develop, there is a low chance (20%) for storm development. Sufficient daytime heating will support greater instability, with steep low level lapse rates present and DCAPE values exceeding 800 J/kg based on model soundings. Wind gusts to 40 mph and lightning strikes will be the primary concerns with any storm activity that manages to develop.
Showers and storms then move offshore into the overnight hours, with mostly dry conditions forecast. Patchy fog development will be possible across the interior west of I-95 late tonight. Lows fall into the mid 60s.

Sunday-Monday...Mid-level troughing strengthens across the central U.S., with an area of low pressure developing near the Ohio Valley on Sunday, with its attendant cold front extending southward towards the Ark-La-Tex region. The low will gradually lift northeastward as the trough extends farther south towards the southeast U.S., pushing the cold front closer to the Florida peninsula. Locally, ahead of the front, isolated to scattered shower development and isolated storm development will be possible. Ample daytime heating will lead to sufficient instability, with MUCAPE forecast to exceed 1200 J/kg across much of east central Florida. Modeled soundings also indicate modest low level lapse rates and DCAPE values of 850 J/kg and greater areawide. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas north of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather on Sunday. Any storms that manage to develop may be capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 mph as well as frequent lightning strikes. 500 mb temperatures are also forecast to be in the -10 to -9C range, so hail also cannot be fully ruled out if storms are able to get that tall. Shower and storm activity is anticipated to begin up north and expand southward as the front approaches the area, moving across the peninsula late Sunday into Monday.

Drier and cooler air then filters in across east central Florida on Monday, with rain chances dropping to near 0%. Winds pick up out of the north behind the front, with winds of 10 to 15 mph forecast. Gusts to 20 mph will be possible. Afternoon temperatures in the 80s on Sunday take a steep dive on Monday, with highs only reaching the 60s to 70s. Monday night, the coldest temperatures of the season thus far are forecast, with lows falling into the mid 30s to low 40s. Windy conditions will also make it feel cooler than it is, with wind chill values falling into the upper 20s to mid 30s areawide.

Tuesday-Friday...The mid-level trough swings northeastward and exits the area on Tuesday, with quasi-zonal flow forecast aloft through the remainder of the forecast period. At the surface, an area of high pressure is forecast to strengthen across the southeastern U.S. behind the cold front, keeping conditions dry through the end of this week and into the weekend. Temperatures will continue to remain well below normal for this time of year on Tuesday. Afternoon highs are forecast to only reach the mid 50s to mid 60s, with the highest temperatures focused across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Lows Tuesday night fall into the upper 30s north of the I-4 corridor and into the 40s southward, with wind chill values in the upper 30s across much of the interior. A warming trend then begins as the high sets up across the area, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s Wednesday and in the 70s to low 80s through the remainder of the week. Lows in the 40s to 50s Wednesday and Thursday, with 50s areawide on Friday.

MARINE
Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through this weekend deteriorate on Monday behind a cold front that passes across the local Atlantic waters Sunday night into Monday. Light southwesterly winds veer to out of the north and increase to 20 to 30 knots Monday through Tuesday. Seas respond and quickly build, increasing to 8 to 12 feet across the Gulf Stream waters and 5 to 8 feet across the nearshore waters, peaking on Tuesday. Winds and seas then subside as high pressure builds across the local Atlantic waters, with a return of favorable boating conditions towards mid week.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible today and again on Sunday out ahead of the cold front. Any storms that manage to develop may be capable of producing gusty winds and lightning strikes. Locally higher seas near stronger storms cannot be ruled out. Dry conditions are then forecast behind the front and through the remainder of next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 552 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Generally VFR, but will likely see some patchy fog, locally dense in places early this morning which should burn off ahead of mid- morning. ISOLD showers possible this afternoon, but low coverage and confidence so keeping "Vicinity" wording out of TAFs at this time. Light/variable winds becoming SWRLY 5-10 kts, transitioning onshore along the coast in the (mid/late) afternoon with sea breeze formation. This evening, possible ISOLD convection from near KTIX southward along the coast with activity either dissipating or moving off of the coast by mid to late evening.
Will monitor trends and update with TEMPO groups as applicable.
Perhaps a better shot at some patchy (dense) fog development overnight into early Sun morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 84 67 83 55 / 10 10 20 0 MCO 87 68 84 59 / 20 10 30 0 MLB 84 68 85 62 / 20 20 20 10 VRB 86 67 86 63 / 20 20 20 10 LEE 85 67 83 55 / 20 10 30 0 SFB 86 67 83 57 / 20 10 30 0 ORL 86 69 83 59 / 20 10 30 0 FPR 86 68 86 64 / 20 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.