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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 1032 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
This afternoon..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east late. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of sprinkles.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of sprinkles.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 1032 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis..Onshore winds this afternoon will freshen tonight and Saturday as high pressure moves farther offshore. Winds and seas will then increase Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, as will chances for showers and lightning storms. Winds and seas remain elevated early next week as a stout area of high pressure moves in behind the front.
Gulf stream hazards..None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, december 8th.
48 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 081543 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1043 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION

UPDATE
Issued at 1040 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

High pressure over the west Atlantic will continue to shift slowly offshore, producing low level winds out of the E/SE across the area today. Airmass will gradually moisten through the day, with the morning sounding at the Cape (XMR) only showing a PW value around 0.67", but model guidance showing an increase to around 1.2-1.3" this afternoon. The combined onshore flow and increase in low level moisture may lead to some isolated shower development across the coastal waters, with some of this activity potentially moving onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast this afternoon and into this evening. Higher cloud cover may also produce some light precip as it continues to build in from the west. However, much of this will either fall as virga or sprinkles as it mostly evaporates due to the much drier air between 850-500mb. Therefore mostly dry conditions still expected for today. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

MARINE
Issued at 1040 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Today-Tonight...High pressure over the west Atlantic will keep winds out of the E/SE up to 10-12 knots today, increasing up to 10-15 knots tonight. Seas will range from 3-5 feet. Isolated showers will develop across the Atlantic this afternoon and into tonight.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Mainly VFR today into tonight. Skies will be mostly cloudy, but any cigs will remain VFR. Higher clouds will continue to build in from the west with cigs at or above 15kft, and some lower cigs will continue to occur around 4-5kft, especially along the coast.
Winds becoming ESE/SE this afternoon and tonight around 5-10 knots.

Isold -SHRA may affect the KVRB-KSUA corridor late this afternoon and tonight. SHRA CHCs only expected around 20 percent. Could also see a few sprinkles later today and tonight for northern terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 447 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Saturday-Monday... Mid/upper level ridge builds over the western Atlantic through the weekend. High pressure will slide east- northeast over the western Atlantic ahead of an approaching cold front Sunday into Monday. By Sunday, low pressure will track across the Northeastern CONUS and drag the previously mentioned cold front across the Deep Southeast and the state of Florida Sunday evening into early Monday. Onshore southeasterly flow and PWATs ~ 1.5" will keep isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms in the forecast over the local Atlantic waters Saturday with isolated showers forecast over land. On Sunday, a 30-40kt southwesterly LLJ coupled with conditionally unstable mid-level lapse rates, 500mb temps ~ -10/-11C, low instability, and bulk shear up to 50-60kts will support the potential for strong to marginally severe storms by the late afternoon into early Monday morning.

The greatest potential for strong storms exists along and to the north of I-4. The main hazards will be wind gusts up to 50-60mph, heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Expect southeasterly winds Saturday to veer southwest Sunday with gusts up to 25-30mph, then veer north Monday with gusts up to 20-25mph. The cold front will move out of central Florida by mid Monday morning with drier air moving in behind it. Partly cloudy skies Saturday will become cloudy Sunday, then mostly sunny Monday. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the upper 60s to low 80s through the weekend.
Much cooler behind the front with the low 60s to low 70s for highs on Monday.

Tuesday-Thursday... High pressure will build over the midsouth and Ohio Valley through midweek. Flow veers east-northeast into Tuesday.
Guidance signals that a weak trough will develop along the east coast of Florida with moisture increasing from the south through midweek. PWATs rise between 1.3-1.8" Wednesday and Thursday.
Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop Wednesday and Thursday with the highest chances towards the Treasure Coast (PoPs ~30-50%). Breezy conditions are forecast with wind gusts up to 20-30 mph each afternoon, especially Thursday along the coast. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s to the north of Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne with the mid to upper 70s to the south. Lows will drop into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 61 78 65 / 10 10 20 10 MCO 75 62 79 65 / 10 10 20 10 MLB 77 64 79 68 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 78 64 81 68 / 10 20 20 20 LEE 75 60 79 64 / 10 10 10 10 SFB 75 61 80 65 / 10 10 20 10 ORL 75 62 80 66 / 10 10 20 10 FPR 77 64 80 68 / 10 20 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:35 AM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:00 AM EST     0.83 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:26 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:37 PM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:15 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida, Tide feet

Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:06 AM EST     3.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:18 AM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:26 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:14 PM EST     3.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:20 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida, Tide feet

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