Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Smyrna Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 8:27PM Monday July 6, 2020 5:36 PM EDT (21:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:00PMMoonset 6:45AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ570 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 20-60 Nm- 316 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 316 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis..South to southwest wind flow backing to the southeast to south in the afternoons will continue this week with the ridge axis to the east and weak low pressure developing over the northeast gulf states. Deep moisture will continue across east central florida, keeping high chances for showers and Thunderstorms reaching the atlantic coastal waters each afternoon from the interior.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday, july 5th. 44 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Smyrna Beach, FL
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location: 29.02, -80.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 062006 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 406 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

DISCUSSION. This afternoon-Tonight . Another active afternoon across east central FL. Temperatures had a chance to climb to the lower 90s and with PWAT values of around 2 inches, afternoon convection had the necessary ingredients to get going. As storms pushed generally towards the east coast, the sea breeze as it was moving westward, encounter these and several outflow boundaries enhancing the storms over the coastal counties. As of 345 pm, these storms were stretching from Volusia to St Lucie county, progressing towards the Atlantic waters. Additional activity is still being observed on radar west of Osceola that will continue to move east bringing more showers and storms to Brevard, Orange and consequently the Atlantic waters through late afternoon. As these showers dissipate or move offshore, mostly cloudy skies will then be observed with light rain lingering through the evening. After midnight, skies will thin out and low temps will drop to the lower-mid 70s.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion (modified) .

Tuesday-Wednesday . Subtropical ridge axis, currently over south FL, will lift slightly northward into Tuesday, but should remain near to south of Lake Okeechobee through mid-week. An area of low pressure over southern Georgia will move to the northeast and reach the coast of the Carolina and mid-Atlantic in the next few days. These two features will maintain a local offshore flow pattern, focusing greatest coverage of showers and storms toward the eastern side of the Florida peninsula each afternoon. Deep moisture (PWAT ~2 inches) will maintain higher rain chances for Tuesday, around 60 percent. Then some drier mid level air and influence of ridge aloft may decrease storm coverage slightly across central and southern portions of the area on Wednesday, with PoPs falling to around 50 percent.

Still, storm coverage will remain near to above normal, with a few strong storms expected each day, especially toward the east coast later in the afternoon as storms and outflow boundaries interact with the east coast sea breeze. Frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts up to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches will continue to be the main storm threats. Highs will reach the low 90s for most locations with overnight lows in the 70s.

Thursday-Sunday . Models continue to show surface low moving just offshore of the Carolinas early Thursday, and then shifting N/NE along to just offshore of the eastern U.S. seaboard from late week into the weekend. A lingering frontal boundary will be left in the wake of this low, remaining nearly stationary north of Florida. This feature combined with a reinforcing trough across the eastern U.S. will keep ridge axis south of the area and an continued offshore flow pattern across the region.

Deeper moisture will gradually build back southward across central Florida during this timeframe, with higher rain chances of 60-70 percent expected each day, as scattered to numerous afternoon storms continue to develop and push eastward across the area and offshore into early evening. An increase in W/SW low level winds through late week and into the weekend may be enough to limit or prevent east coast sea breeze development, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s each day before convection and cloud cover increases across the area.

AVIATION. Ongoing showers and storms along the I-4 corridor are pushing eastward towards the Atlantic. Additional showers and storms will be moving in from the west coast, heading towards the east and to the Atlantic waters. Included MVFR conditions in a TEMPO group due to reduced visibilities and lowering cigs as SHRA/TSRA will affect most of the terminals starting from the inland/northern sites (KLEE, KMCO, KSFB, KISM, and KDAB)starting at 18Z then moving southward towards the coastal sites and Treasure Coast. SHRA/TSRA are expected to dissipate after sunset. SW winds 5-10 kt for the inland sites and SE winds 5-10 kts for the coastal sites through this evening. VFR conditions expected outside of convection through the TAF period. Tomorrow variable winds to start off with, then becoming SW at 5-10 kt in the late morning with coastal sites getting a SE/SSE seabreeze around 17Z. Included VCTS for KLEE starting at 15Z.

MARINE. This afternoon-Tonight . Outside thunderstorm activity or passing outflows that will increase winds and seas locally through the evening, winds will be from the south at 10-15 kt and returning from a south to southwest flow later tonight. An Atlantic ridge extending towards south FL today will slightly lift north tonight but will retreat south again by Tue morning as a low pressure over northwest FL shifts east.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion (modified) .

Tuesday-Friday . Ridge axis near or south of Lake Okeechobee will remain in place through the work week, with S/SW winds Tue-Wed becoming S/SE in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops. Winds may then remain more offshore, especially north of the Treasure Coast into late week as an increase in low level W/SW flow develops. Wind speeds forecast to remain below 15 knots with seas 1-3 feet, potentially increasing to 4 feet offshore by late week.

Main threat to boaters will continue to be scattered to numerous offshore moving storms producing frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds, mainly from mid afternoon through early evening each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 74 91 75 91 / 50 70 20 60 MCO 75 93 76 93 / 30 70 10 50 MLB 76 90 77 91 / 50 60 20 50 VRB 75 91 75 92 / 50 60 30 50 LEE 76 92 76 92 / 30 70 10 60 SFB 75 93 76 93 / 30 70 20 60 ORL 76 93 77 93 / 30 70 10 50 FPR 75 92 75 93 / 50 60 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

Negron/Combs/Watson/Leahy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 45 mi48 min S 14 G 19 82°F 85°F1019.9 hPa
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi111 min E 1.9 75°F 1019 hPa74°F
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 47 mi40 min 83°F2 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 52 mi36 min SSE 18 G 19 85°F 85°F1017.9 hPa (+0.7)76°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL4 mi49 minSSE 60.75 miThunderstorm Rain73°F71°F94%1019 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL14 mi43 minSSE 45.00 miThunderstorm Rain Fog/Mist75°F73°F96%1017.9 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL22 mi46 minNE 67.00 miThunderstorm77°F62°F61%1017.6 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL24 mi43 minENE 710.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain75°F71°F88%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEVB

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5SE8S8SW8SW8----------------S4SW4SW6SW6W6SW6SE7SE12SE12S15
G29
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1 day agoW7SW3S3SW4Calm----------------SW5SW4SW4SW6SW4W5N6E8SW12
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE3------------------------NW3NW4E5NE7NE7E7E7S7

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub)
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.