Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Smyrna Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:55PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 8:07 AM EDT (12:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:19PMMoonset 7:50AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ570 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 20-60 Nm- 351 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 11 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..North winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..North winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 351 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge offshore the southeast u.s. Will gradually weaken today and Wednesday. A weak cool front will move into central florida Wednesday night, then stall across central to south florida through late week. Light winds will increase out of the southeast and south today, then shift to the southwest on Wednesday ahead of the front. Moderate long-period swells will continue to subside through mid week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday october 15th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 21 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Smyrna Beach, FL
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location: 29.02, -80.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 150749
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
349 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Discussion
Today-tonight... Weak high pressure that has been offshore of the se
u.S. Coast will remain more or less in the same spot with the ridge
axis draped roughly across CAPE canaveral. There will be a light
ssw flow to the north and a light SE wind to the south before winds
become E ese this afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves
inland.

Satellite-derived precipitable water shows that moisture has
increased across the area since yesterday. Values range from 1.8"
nw of i-4 to around 1.4-1.5" across the treasure coast, and forecast
soundings for today indicate that most of this is above 600 mb
(15000 ft agl) with drier air in the lower levels, most notably
a significant warm and dry pocket between roughly 6000 ft and 15000
ft.

There will be more mid and high level cloudiness today with
the increase in moisture at those levels (already occurring across
northern areas), but the warm dry layer will make prospects of
rainfall hard to come by again. Rain chances are at or below 10
percent across the board, but if a shower or two were to develop the
most favored area would be NW of i-4 late this afternoon with
lake sea breeze interactions and the higher moisture. MAX temps mid
80s for the coast and upper 80s near 90 across the interior.

Primarily dry conditions for the tonight period, but a subtle
disturbance aloft and weak isentropic lift may result in some shower
development north and west of the i-4 corridor well after midnight.

Overnight lows upper 60s to low 70s across the area.

Wed-thu... A developing sfc low north of the state early wed
morning wl move off the mid atlc coast by Wed aftn. Ongoing
showers and perhaps a storm during the morning hours across n
central fl, largely ascd with some mid-level energy transiting
the SE will develop swd into the region during Wed as a frontal
boundary apchs the area Wed night. Earlier timing of this initial
disturbance will limit rain chcs to sct coverage. The boundary wl
settle over central fl by Wed night and moisture pooling along and
s of the feature coupled with marginal instability will keep a
chc of showers in the fcst for Thu with an isold storm or two in a
pseudo warm sector which looks to reside over the southern half
of the area.

Extended... Potential will exist for showers and a few storms fri
as a little more energetic disturbance takes form over the central
to eastern gulf late Fri and into sat. Wl keep sct rain chcs in
the forecast through at least the weekend as well as Monday, with
uncertainty on any favored area for measurable daily rains due to
placement of sfc features. Considerable cloud cover should keep
temp ranges near to slightly below normal.

Aviation
Settling of smoke from a smoldering nearby brushfire may again give
kmlb some reduced visibilities through 14z or so before winds
increase. Otherwise,VFR conditions with an increase in mid and
high level cloudiness through the TAF period.

Marine
Today-tonight... Light ssw winds north of CAPE canaveral and SE winds
to the south will back to the ese this afternoon as the sea breeze
develops. A few 4 foot seas may linger offshore and in the gulf
stream this morning but otherwise are expected to be 2-3 feet
nearshore and 3 feet offshore.

Winds will veer S ssw tonight ahead of a cool front and increase to
around 10 knots south of CAPE canaveral and 15 knots to the north.

A cautionary statement may be needed tonight for the volusia county
nearshore and offshore waters if wind guidance trends any higher.

Seas continue generally 2-3 feet but will build to 4 feet over the
offshore volusia waters overnight.

Wed-thu... Local winds will veer to more sly component and
increase somewhat during wed. Seas average 3-4ft with slightly
higher seas offshore. Sfc boundary moving near the marine area
past mid week should continue mostly favorable conditions with no
headlines for wind or seas expected. Seas around 3 ft by wed
night and 2-3 ft into thu. Winds 12 kt or less expected.

Extended... Saturday shows changing conditions with onshore winds
initially veering to S as an upstream disturbance over the gulf
moves closer to the area. Headlines are not anticipated this
weekend, however winds and seas may be briefly higher near showers
and a few lightning storms.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 86 72 89 70 10 20 40 20
mco 90 73 89 72 10 10 40 20
mlb 86 72 91 72 0 0 30 20
vrb 86 71 88 72 10 0 20 20
lee 88 73 87 72 10 20 40 20
sfb 88 72 88 72 10 10 40 20
orl 88 73 89 73 10 10 40 20
fpr 86 70 89 70 10 0 20 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Combs
long term... .Pendergrast


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 45 mi49 min N 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 82°F1019.4 hPa
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi82 min SW 1 72°F 1019 hPa70°F
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 47 mi37 min 80°F2 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 52 mi37 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 79°F 81°F1018.5 hPa67°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL4 mi80 minN 010.00 miFair72°F68°F88%1018.6 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL14 mi74 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1018.2 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL22 mi77 minN 010.00 miFair72°F71°F100%1018.3 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL24 mi74 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds72°F69°F91%1018.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEVB

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE5E6E7E7E7E7E7E7E5SE4Calm----------------CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmE6E7SE5SE5SE5E5SE8E9SE7SE7SE4SE5SE4----------------CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmN3N4CalmNE6E6E6E6E6SE10SE10SE10SE8SE6----------------CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub)
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.