Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Surfside Beach, TX

FXUS64 KHGX 291727 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 719 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Ridging across the Southern Plains/SE/E CONUS continues to shift eastward today as closed low approaches from the Desert Southwest.
Subsidence and dry mid-lower levels should work to suppress rainfall today, though modest PWs and weak impulses preceding the low will keep rain chances from being zero. This especially during the afternoon hours as daytime heating destabilizes the environment.
Warm conditions are still on the tap for today with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s/70s. The tightening pressure gradient from the approaching disturbance should keep breezy southeasterly winds in place through mid week. Paired with the partly to mostly cloudy skies, this should make for fairly comfortable weather.

Wednesday should start to see more active weather as the aforementioned low/upper level trough pushes into the Southern Plains/Texas. A 25-30 knot LLJ sets up over SE Texas, with the jet axis positioned north/northeast of our area. Parameter space for this environment shows overall lower CIN than the day prior with greater instability. HRRR has ML CAPE ranging from 1300-2200 J/KG with SFC CAPE around 1500-2700 J/KG. 0-6KM Shear climbs above 35 knots, though cloud-layer shear remains rather low. Midlevel lapse rates range from 7.0-7.5 DegC/km, though the freezing level and WBZ level are rather high. HRRR model updraft helicity paint balls greater than 25m2/s2 largely keep north of our CWA, with only a few individual models showing clusters near the Brazos Valley/Piney Wood area. Besides shortwaves impulses, a weak cold front will also be approaching SE Texas late Wednesday night.
Interestingly enough, the 06z HRRR places this boundary further south than currently depicted in the current NBM/HRRR. Broader models trends suggest that it'll slow/stall, with convection petering out through the early morning hours of Thursday, though it's exact positioning is less certain for the moment.

The Storm Prediction Center has areas north of I-10/US-59 under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of Severe Weather. These areas are also under a Slight (level 2/4) to Marginal (level 1/4) risk for Excessive rainfall on Wednesday. These storms could produce damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall, as well as large hail to a slightly lesser degree. Still, the severe risk is overall not very large given the lack of forcing available, so it's likely that we may only see scattered showers/storms with only a few stronger storms pulsing up. The heavy rainfall threat now looks more credible given the potential for the weak cold front to stall out over our northern counties.

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