Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ponce Inlet, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Current-Tonight...A strong cold front over north FL early this afternoon is poised to move through ECFL tonight. It will be preceded by a broken band of strong to potentially severe lightning storms. While the storms will be dropping from the north/west, individual storms within this band will be moving rapidly off toward the northeast at 35 to 45 mph. We will also need to monitor for any discrete cells out ahead of this line, esp the Treasure Coast. If a sea breeze is able to develop southward it will be likely pinned near/at the (Treasure) coast. This could allow for a few strong pulse (severe) storms here.

Primary storm threats with any storms this afternoon/evening include occasional to frequent lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts to around 60 mph locally, hail to quarter-size, torrential downpours, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. 500 mb temps remain -11.5C to -12.5C providing moderate instability. PWATs will be modest at 1.45-1.65 inches. Surface dewpoints will be well into the 60s to around 70F out ahead of the convection. Timing for the band of (main) precip approaching from the north/west will be mid afternoon across the I-4 corridor, late aftn into early evening south through Osceola/Brevard counties, and early to mid evening for Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. The overall flood threat is lower today, but if multiple rounds occur where heavy rain fell on Sun, then we could see some minor urban flooding. Precip averages today anywhere from 0.25" to 1.00", with isolated spots potentially a bit higher (up to 2-3" in repeated rounds).

You'll want to have multiple ways of receiving weather warnings.
Consider checking the Wireless Emergency Alert feature in your phone's settings, and make sure weather alerts are enabled.

Even with the increasing cloud-cover, afternoon temps are forecast in the L80s north of I-4 and M-U80s southward. South winds veering SW will increase to around 20 mph sustained with frequent higher gusts (25-35 mph) providing for windy/gusty conditions.

The majority of precipitation will gradually end (north to south)
late aftn/early evening (north) and exiting the Treasure Coast by mid to late evening. The cold front will follow the precip and expect a sharp wind shift to W/NW behind it with NW winds this evening/overnight 10-15 mph with frequent higher gusts. Clouds are forecast to linger, with gradual improvement across the I-4 corridor late overnight. Much cooler air will still filter down the peninsula with min values Tue morning in the L-M40s N/W of I-4, U40s to L50s south toward Lake Okee and the Brevard coast, with M-U50s further across the Treasure Coast. Lowest wind chills late overnight into early Tue morning will be in the M-U30s N/W of I-4, U30s to L40s coastal Volusia, L-M40s thru Osceola and interior Brevard, and generally L-M50s southward thru Okeechobee County and much of the Treasure Coast.

Tue-Tue Night...Much chillier start to the day, with aforementioned low temps and NW/N winds still 10-15 mph and gusty early in the period. Max temps forecast in the U50s to L60s I-4 northward & coastal Volusia, with L60s continuing to Lake Okee, Brevard coast and interior Treasure Coast. M-U60s possible for immediate Treasure Coast. Even then, northerly winds will make it feel cooler throughout the day. Much of the area will also remain with considerable cloudiness. A few light (20%) showers will be possible across coastal St. Lucie and Martin counties. Colder temps persist Tue overnight with L-M40s N/W of I-4 and M-U40s extending down to Lake Okee. M-U40s for coastal Volusia and north Brevard. U40s to L50s for south Brevard - Indian River counties and L-M50s for St.
Lucie & interior Martin counties, with U50s for coastal Martin.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Slightly Modified...

Wed-Next Weekend...Due to some discrepancies in the guidance, we will continue to carry low (< 30%) rain chances over the Treasure Coast on Wed, perhaps lingering along the coast south of the Cape into Thu and Fri as well. However, recent trends continue drier.

Florida will be stuck between strong high pressure to the north and an old surface trough from the Bahamas to the NW Caribbean Sea. This will cause winds to turn northeasterly, ending the cold advection and slowly warming our temperatures in time. Temperatures return closer to normal by Fri, then jump further as we move into the weekend. There is now a 70-80% chance of reaching 80 deg F + by Sat and Sun under plentiful sunshine.

MARINE
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Boating conditions worsen and become hazardous as a strong cold front approaches the local Atlantic. Offshore-moving showers and lightning storms early-mid afternoon (Treasure Coast) will precede the front with an additional band of showers/storms moving in from the west later this afternoon and evening. The potential exists for gusty winds, coin-size hail, and frequent lightning strikes with storms. South-southwest winds turn northwesterly and freshen tonight. The cold front stalls in the southern Bahamas by mid-week as high pressure moves over the mid Atlc states. Moderate to fresh onshore winds will result, building seas once again later in the week.

Small Craft Advisories go into effect areawide this afternoon. Seas 3-6 ft, building to 6-9 ft by early Tue in the Gulf Stream. Seas diminish to 4-6 ft on Wed, but some 7 ft seas return to the Gulf Stream on Thu as onshore winds increase due to the former front located to the south and high pressure building in from the north.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA are developing across ECFL ahead of an approaching squall line/frontal boundary, prompting adjustments to timing of TEMPOs. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA will increase across the area until the squall line/front sweeps through, and many terminals could see multiple rounds of TSRA between discrete cells and the line. +TSRA with convective wind gusts greater than 35 kts and hail possible. Clearing southward between 23Z and 05Z, then dry conditions. SW winds 15-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts veer NE- NNE behind the front and decrease a bit to 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, before gradually decreasing to 10 kts or less Tuesday afternoon (sooner at a few terminals). MVFR CIGs settle over KVRB- KSUA tonight into Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Numerous showers with scattered lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening ahead of a strong cold front. While wetting rains are forecast for many places, lightning may still spark new fires. Much cooler and drier air filters over the district on Tuesday. RH minima on Tuesday fall to upper 20s to near 40% near across the I-4 corridor and possibly as far south as central Osceola County. North winds around 10-15 mph will combine with the dry air to produce fire-sensitive conditions. RH values recover slightly on Wednesday and Thursday, then fall into the 35-40% range again on Friday over the interior.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 44 60 43 66 / 30 0 0 0 MCO 48 61 46 68 / 30 0 0 0 MLB 51 63 49 70 / 50 10 0 10 VRB 54 65 51 70 / 60 10 0 10 LEE 44 61 42 69 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 47 63 44 68 / 30 0 0 0 ORL 48 63 46 69 / 30 0 0 0 FPR 55 65 51 71 / 60 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-570-572- 575.