Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ponce Inlet, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Rest of Today-Tuesday...A glance at a loop of GOES-East visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows an upper level low locked over the Florida peninsula, evident in the cloud motions. Deep moisture, with PWATs over 2" and upper level support have allowed for isolated to scattered showers and a few storms to develop prior to 2 PM. Expect coverage to increase over the next few hours along the sea breeze, mainly south of Cape Canaveral. Prevailing onshore flow will progress this activity inland and to the west coast later this afternoon and into this evening. PoPs decrease accordingly towards sunset. Until then, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of wind gusts to 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3". A few showers and storms will be possible again overnight along the coast, as a few cells drift inland along continued onshore flow.

Similar conditions are forecast through early this week. The upper level low persists over the Florida peninsula on Monday, before moving NE and merging with an approaching upper level trough on Tuesday. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.2") will support scattered to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms in the afternoons. Activity looks to develop along the sea breeze by early afternoon, then drift inland along the dominant east coast sea breeze into the evening hours. Isolated strong storms will remain possible, though 500 mb temperatures look to warm from near -8 C today to -6 C Tuesday. Late night/early morning showers and storms may continue to drift into coastal areas, as scattered to numerous convection persists over the Atlantic waters overnight. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and high humidity will support peak afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.

Wednesday-Sunday...An upper level trough drops SE out of the Great Lakes region mid-week, moving offshore. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure system off of the US east coast drifts NE over the western Atlantic. These features are forecast to stack and deepen off of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday and Friday, then meander offshore of New England into the weekend. Locally, a surface cool front attached to this low looks to drop southward into the Florida peninsula Wednesday. The front is forecast to weaken, slowing as it approaches the local area, where it lingers through the end of the work week and finally moves south of the forecast area by the weekend.

Little change to the sensible impacts Wednesday and Thursday compared to earlier in the week. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3")
persists over the area, while the presence of the front maintains enough lift for numerous (60-70%) showers and storms, especially in the afternoons. Will also see chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms (20-30%) persist along the coast during the overnight hours, as NE flow continues. Winds remain around 10 mph or less Wednesday, before a tightening pressure gradient behind the front increases winds to 10-15 mph (gusts 20-25 mph) from Melbourne northward through the day Thursday. Gusts near 30 mph are possible along the Volusia County coastline by the evening hours Thursday, with sustained winds 25-30 mph just offshore. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s continue.

As the front moves into south Florida Friday and into the weekend, drier air (PWATs below 1.5") will begin to filter into northern portions of the forecast area. Thus, PoPs diminish from north to south, becoming isolated to scattered (20-50%). Breezy NE flow continues, especially on Friday, with winds 10-15+ mph and gusts 20- 25 mph in the afternoons. Drier air and onshore flow will allow for high temperatures to drop a few degrees to the mid to upper 80s.
However, the main difference will be the drier air leading to lower max heat indices.

MARINE
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions persist into mid-week this week, as NE winds remain around 10 kts or less. However, will see scattered to numerous showers and storms persist each day, especially overnight. A few strong storms will be possible, capable of wind gusts near 40 kts and lightning strikes. Seas 1-3 ft. A cool front is forecast to move through the local waters into Thursday, increasing NE winds to 20-25 kts north of Cape Canaveral by the evening hours. Conditions look to deteriorate progressively southward into Friday, with seas building to 6-9 ft.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Scattered showers and lightning storms are ongoing along the coast, mainly from MLB southward, and across the interior, mainly around the Orlando Metro. Additional showers and storms are forecast to form this afternoon as activity shifts westward in the onshore flow and the diffuse east coast sea breeze pushes inland.
Have maintained TEMPOs and PROB30 for everywhere, except DAB, starting at 18Z for MVFR TSRA conditions. A few stronger storms will be possible. Any lingering convection will diminish or move out of the area by 00Z. While mostly dry conditions are forecast overnight, isolated showers and storms may brush along the coast at times. E/NE winds this afternoon generally below 10 KT will become light and variable overnight before becoming E/NE and increasing to 5-9 KT by mid-morning on Monday. Have included VCSH starting along the coast at 15Z on Monday and at 17Z for MCO.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 88 74 88 / 10 40 20 60 MCO 73 90 73 91 / 10 60 20 70 MLB 74 87 74 88 / 20 50 30 60 VRB 73 88 73 88 / 20 60 40 70 LEE 73 90 73 90 / 20 60 20 70 SFB 73 89 73 90 / 10 60 10 70 ORL 74 89 74 90 / 10 70 10 70 FPR 72 88 72 88 / 20 70 30 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.