Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ponce Inlet, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

Current-Tuesday... High pressure across the western Atlantic will continue to push eastward through tonight as a low pressure system in the Gulf shifts eastward, pushing a weak cold front across east central Florida tonight and into Tuesday. Increasing moisture across the local area this afternoon out ahead of the front, with forecast PW values ranging from 1.3-1.6", will support rain chances this afternoon into the evening hours. There is a medium to high (30-60 percent) chance of showers late this afternoon from central Brevard/Osceola counties northward. Rain chances increase and expand into tonight with a medium to high (30-70 percent)chance of showers occurring across much of east central Florida, with a low (20 percent) chance of showers across southern Treasure Coast/Okeechobee counties. Conditions do not favor heavy rainfall, nor lightning storm development at this time. HRRR 90th percentile 24-hour QPF continues to barely exceed a quarter of an inch in the "highest" spots up north. Rain chances will diminish by early Tuesday morning as high pressure and a cool, dry airmass filters down across east central Florida behind the front, brining dry conditions once again to the local area. Onshore winds generally 10 mph or less this afternoon will become northeast and increase to 10-15 mph on Tuesday, with the higher speeds occurring along the coast.

Temperatures this afternoon will have a fairly large range across east central Florida due to thick cloud cover across the north, mainly from Brevard to Osceola northward. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s north of the I-4 corridor, upper 60s to low 70s southward into Brevard and central Osceola county, and upper 70s to low 80s southward where the greatest amount of daytime heating will occur as skies remain partly to mostly sunny. Overnight lows tonight range from upper 40s to low 50s across the north, to upper 50s to low 60s across the south. Temperatures on Wednesday will remain below normal for this time of year with highs in the low 60s across the north to upper 60s to 70 degrees across the south.
Overnight lows on Tuesday will drop into the low to mid 40s across the north to low to mid 50s across the south.

Wednesday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Pretty good model agreement in the overall pattern going into the mid portions of the forecast period, which for us is mostly zonal flow aloft, but there are some discrepancies in shortwaves traversing the pattern and local impacts they could produce. Generally speaking, high pressure over the south is reinforced by another slug of arctic air, keeping us cool and mostly dry. However, disagreements between the position and strength of a shortwave traversing the deep south, as well as the position and strength of the surface high, which brings uncertainty on whether or not another weak disturbance from the Gulf will move across Florida Thursday into Friday. The GFS model run has the low pressure crossing south Florida and out into the adjacent waters, which brings a wetter solution across the southern Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee counties Thursday night, with the ECMWF staying dry.
Have stayed close to NBM guidance for this afternoon package, which has trended closer to the GFS solution. Thus, have a low (20 percent) chance for showers across the southern Treasure Coast/Okeechobee Thursday night. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail. Lightning storm development does not look favorable at this time. Temperatures will stay just below normal, with highs in the 60s and lows dropping back into the U30s-40s across most of the area (coastal Martin can hang on to lows around 50), with the chilliest conditions Thursday night into Friday morning. There is some potential for patchy frost, mainly late in the week if the center of the low does indeed move towards Florida. But confidence was not high enough to include it in the forecast at this time.

Friday-Sunday...(Previous Discussion) Model disagreement continues to increase. Another big weather maker for much of the US is on the table going into the weekend, but timing and intensity are big question marks. Went with a blend of NBM, GFS, and ECM, which calls for a warming trend and return of rain chances Sunday as the cold front of the aforementioned large weather system to the north is dragged across the area, but wouldn't place any bets what time we could see rain, and how strong the convection might be just yet.

MARINE
Issued at 303 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

Current-Wednesday... Poor to hazards boating conditions developing tonight into Wednesday. Northerly winds will increase to 15-20 KT across the Volusia waters tonight and expand southward across the rest of the waters through the overnight hours. Winds will remain elevated through mid week. Seas of 2-3ft this afternoon will build 2-4 ft tonight, before building to 4-6ft across the nearshore waters, and 5-7ft in the offshore waters on Tuesday. Seas will slowly subside to 4-6ft on Wednesday. Small craft should exercise caution in the Volusia and Brevard waters tonight. Have issued a Small craft advisory for the Volusia waters starting at 7 AM on Tuesday, expanding to all the offshore waters at 11 AM. Further adjustments to the SCA may be needed in later packages. There is a medium to high (30-60 percent) chance of showers late this afternoon from Cape Canaveral northward. Rain chances increase and expand into tonight with a medium to high (30-70 percent)chance of showers occurring from northern Treasure coast waters northward, with a low (20 percent) chance of showers across the southern Treasure Coast waters. Lightning storm developing is not favorable. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions through mid week.

Thursday-Friday... Improving boating conditions and mostly dry conditions through the period as high pressure continues to build over the local waters. Confidence remains low for the potential of another weak disturbance to develop in the Gulf and move over the Florida peninsula and into the local waters. The GFS model guidance has the low shifting southward into the Florida Straits and into the Bahamas, with the ECMWF showing the low remaining in the Gulf.
Northerly winds around 10-15 KT Thursday morning will back to the northwest by the afternoon, becoming light and variable Friday. Seas 3-5 ft. Have introduced a low (20 percent) chance of showers on Thursday night across the Treasure Coast waters as increased moisture moves across that areas due to a low pressure system that is forecast to move over South Florida on Thursday night. Confidence is not high this will occur as there remains model disagreement on placement and strength of this low pressure system. But for now, have introduced these isolated showers.



AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1245 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

VFR conditions to become IFR/LIFR at times as a front sinks south thru the terminals. CIGs will continue to lower thru 00z Tue., becoming IFR thru at least 12z Tue. A 4-6 hour period of -SHRA/VCSH is forecast for all sites, with decreasing -SHRA chances from MLB southward into Tue. morning. Periods of MVFR VIS are also possible, especially across northern terminals. Gradual improvements to CIGs will occur toward the very end of the TAF period from MCO/TIX northward.

NE winds around 10 kt will gradually back to a northerly direction behind the front, generally after 03z-06z across the north, and finally from 09z-12z from VRB-SUA. Gusts may approach 20 kt at times during the day on Tue., mainly at the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 50 60 44 59 / 70 0 0 0 MCO 54 63 46 63 / 70 0 0 0 MLB 56 66 50 65 / 50 10 0 0 VRB 59 69 54 68 / 40 10 0 0 LEE 50 63 43 62 / 70 0 0 0 SFB 52 63 44 62 / 70 0 0 0 ORL 53 63 45 63 / 70 0 0 0 FPR 60 69 53 68 / 30 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ550- 570.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ572- 575.