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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 349 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. A dominant period 8 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Hazy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. A dominant period 8 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Hazy in the morning. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 349 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis..Hazardous boating conditions will continue into mid-week, as brisk northeasterly winds and elevated seas remain over the open atlantic. Isolated to scattered showers and a few lightning storms are forecast. Another frontal boundary is forecast to enter the region late week bring a switch to northerly winds.
Gulf stream hazards..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots and seas up to 7 to 9 feet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, september 30th.
46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 27 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 18 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 031910 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 310 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION

Currently-Tonight...Breezy northeast flow wl continue all areas through dusk, with a noticeable dropoff in winds inland after nightfall. Increasing returns of shower activity over the marine area indicates the expected increase in moisture and the overnight forecast increases the chc of showers over the marine and coastal sections. Additionally some degree of haze will continue to be present at least into early Wednesday, however the level of influence should diminish compared to what occurred earlier today.
There will be a developing chc of thunder over the Atlc late tonight, possibly a storm or tow nearing the coast early Wednesday. Low temps will be milder with L-M70s expected. The Coastal Flood Advisory will be allowed to expire at 4 PM today.

prev disc...

Wed-Wed Night...The Florida peninsula remains sandwiched in between weak low pressure aloft over the western Atlc and high pressure over the NW GoMex. This is promoting northerly winds in the mid-levels (H500) overhead. At the surface, high pressure keeps a firm grasp across the eastern CONUS and centered just north of the mid Atlc. Lower pressures continue across the FL Straits and thus our fairly tight pressure gradient will give us one more day of breezy (15-20 mph) NERLY winds across ECFL. Wind speeds will slowly diminish thru the evening and overnight. Enough coastal convergence/ample moisture will remain present for SCT (30-40pct) onshore-moving showers to continue in the forecast. The trend decreases (15-30pct) further into the interior. Afternoon temperatures will remain near-normal, with highs in the L80s for the immediate coast and M80s (perhaps a few U80s) further inland.
The deep onshore flow will keep overnight mins slightly above normal, in the M70s at the coast and U60s to L70s interior.

Thu-Tue...Surface high pressure holds on across the eastern U.S.
into Thu, then is forecast to weaken and forced seaward with the approach of a cold front and accompanying upper trough. This weakening surface boundary is still forecast to slide south across the FL peninsula this weekend. High pressure behind this latest front will move into the area late into the weekend and early next week, though on a weakening trend. Over the last 24 hours, PoPs have decreased in the extended across much of the area. For the moment will keep chances at 20pct or less Thu-Sun, and 20-30pct into early next week. Even with the front this weekend, this system will remain moisture-starved with only minimal upper support this far south.

A slight bump up for highs on Thu-Sat (pre-frontal), M-U80s, then post-frontal on Sun maxes will be knocked back down into the U70s to L80s - north of the Treasure Coast. Highs on Mon areawide in the U70s to L80s and then a slight trend back upward on Tue (L80s). Overnight lows in the U60s to L70s (M70s barrier islands), then a majority of ECFL may fall into the 60s for lows Sat-Mon overnight periods, with the immediate Space/Treasure coasts remaining in the L70s.


MARINE
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Currently-Tonight...Seas 6 to 9 ft continue with a slow period of reduction in seas pending tonight as winds abate from stronger gusts over the past 24h. Winds 15 to 20 knots over the open waters with higher gusts at times will continue overnight and the SCA remains in effect for all local waters.

Wed-Sat...Hazardous boating conditions continue areawide thru Wed, then perhaps only for offshore legs into early Thu, as seas remain slow to subside, 5-7 ft near shore and 6-8 ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in place. A period or two of Cautionary Statements likely after the SCA ends. Seas 3-5 ft late Thu-Sat.
Wind speeds begin to diminish Wed overnight into the extended.
ISOLD-WDLY SCT shower chances. Can't rule out an ISOLD lightning storm, especially over the Gulf Stream. A weakening "cool" front does approach the local waters late on Sat.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

IMPACTS: -MVFR VIS/CIGs due to smoke are improving -Showers developing through the period, especially at the coast

Primary aviation hazard continues to be compromised slantwise and vertical visibility due to Canadian wildfire smoke. VIS from 4-8SM are common over our Orlando area terminals along with CIG obscuration above 4KFT. These values have lifted significantly from just a couple hours ago, and continued improvements should work inland through early evening as E/NE flow continues, with occasional 25 KT gusts through sunset.

Shallow showers are arriving now at the coast and the chance for spotty rain will be with us through much of the TAF period. Highest rain coverage will be near the coast after 9Z through Wednesday morning.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

The St. Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain within Moderate Flood Stage into late week as breezy northeast winds continue.

In addition, runoff from successive days of heavy rainfall, combined with breezy northeast winds and above normal tides will lead to further rises along the Saint Johns River above Lake Harney and Sanford, with river levels forecast to reach Action Stage of 6.0 feet above Lake Harney and 4.2 feet at Sanford later this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 83 74 84 / 20 30 10 20 MCO 73 86 72 88 / 10 30 10 10 MLB 75 85 74 86 / 50 40 20 10 VRB 75 86 74 87 / 40 40 20 20 LEE 71 86 70 87 / 0 10 0 10 SFB 72 86 72 87 / 20 30 10 10 ORL 74 86 72 88 / 10 30 10 10 FPR 74 86 74 87 / 50 40 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ141- 154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575.

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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
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Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:04 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:26 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida, Tide feet

Daytona Beach (Ocean)
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Tue -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:39 AM EDT     5.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:05 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida, Tide feet

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