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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 1026 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
This afternoon..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 1026 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis..A cold front will sag across the local waters from late morning through early evening, reaching south florida tonight. Behind the front, high pressure will build over the local waters through Tuesday. A secondary surge of fresh northerly winds will reach the local waters Wednesday into Thursday as low pressure develops off the mid atlantic and northeast u.s. Coasts, producing poor to hazardous boating conditions, especially well offshore.

Gulf stream hazards..None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday, december 3rd.
43 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 041609 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1109 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1110 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

No significant changes to current forecast. Cold front is oozing SE across central FL this morning. Pesky low clouds are slow to lift/dissipate and even when they do, considerable high cloudiness will persist. Isolated showers should develop across central/southern sections where sufficient heating and instability will develop ahead of/along the front. Max temps will remain above normal reaching the upper 70s Lake and Volusia to some mid 80s south of Orlando. There will be a chance to equal a record high at Vero Beach (84F in 1994).

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Lingering IFR/MVFR CIGs will lift to VFR by 17Z or so. W to W/NW winds around 10 knots becoming NW tonight. No fog/stratus will occur tonight or early Tue as low level dry air moves in.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 313 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Today-tonight...Mid level ridge over Cuba/SE Bahamas flattens as the base of a large eastern CONUS trough drops across Florida, causing winds aloft to veer more westerly. At the surface, a slow- moving cold front over NOFL will reach the northern CWA by early afternoon, then push south through the central/southern CWA a little more quickly, getting south of Lake Okeechobee by mid evening. Potential for precip remains limited given continued dearth of forcing of consequence. Kept 15-20 PoPs for much of the CWA to account for potential of a few showers. Clouds increase from N-S with maces ranging from the U70s north to L80s central and south. Turning cooler behind the front with mins in the L50s north to U50s south (L60s along the Martin SLCO barrier islands).

Tuesday-Wednesday...Quasi-zonal flow will develop aloft on Tuesday across the peninsula. At the surface, an area of high pressure begins to develop across the central US on Tuesday, with northwest winds locally helping drier air filter across the area. Conditions remaining dry on Tuesday, with skies remaining partly cloudy due to lingering moisture in the upper levels. On Wednesday, a mid- level trough sweeps across the southeastern US, with a reinforcing frontal boundary pushing southward across the peninsula. The surface high will then shift eastward towards the southeastern US, causing winds to veer to north-northwest and eventually north Wednesday night. Wind speeds are forecast to increase across the area on Wednesday behind the boundary, with some occasional gusts possible. Dry conditions will persist, with skies clearing due to the drier airmass moving into place.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be closer to climatological normals for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the 70s. Overnight lows slightly cooler, with temperatures dipping into the upper 40s near and north of the I-4 corridor and remaining in the low 50s elsewhere. Wednesday, noticeably cooler as the cooler, drier airmass moves in behind the reinforcing boundary, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows in the low to upper 40s west of I-95 and in the upper 40s to low 50s along the immediate coast.

Thursday-Sunday...The surface high will remain in place across the southeastern US through the remainder of the work week before slowly drifting eastward out across the Atlantic. This will result in dry conditions persisting through Saturday, with winds gradually veering from the north on Thursday to out of the southeast on Saturday. The southeasterly flow will begin to advect moisture northward across the peninsula on Saturday, with increasing rain chances on Sunday as the next frontal system begins to approach Florida. Temperatures generally on a warming trend through the long term, with highs on Thursday in the mid 60s to low 70s increasing to the low to mid 70s on Friday and then mid 70s to low 80s this weekend. Low temperatures are forecast to follow a similar warming trend, with overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 60s Thursday and Friday night, and then in the low 60s to low 70s Saturday night.

MARINE...
Today-tonight...West winds 10-15kt today ahead of the cold front will gradually veer to NW and slacken a tad to around 10kt as the front oozes south across the local waters. Seas 2-3ft, building up to 4ft well offshore tonight. Isolated showers.

Tuesday-Friday...Generally favorable boating conditions on Tuesday will deteriorate on Wednesday behind a reinforcing frontal boundary, with northwesterly winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots across the local Atlantic waters. This will lead to seas increasing from 2 to 3 feet on Tuesday to 4 to 6 feet across the nearshore waters and 6 to 8 feet across the offshore waters on Wednesday. Winds will weaken on Thursday out of the northeast to 10 to 15 knots, with seas subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Conditions continue to improve on Friday, with seas 2 to 4 feet, with occasional 5 foot seas across the offshore waters.
Dry conditions are forecast through the period thanks to an area of high pressure across the southeastern US.

FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air behind the front will produce fire sensitive weather through mid week, with minimum RH values on Tuesday falling into the mid to upper 30s to low 40s near and north of the Orlando metro, with low to mid 40s southward. Wednesday, minimum RH values will generally be in the mid 30s to low 40s across east central Florida before increasing to upper 40s to low 50s area wide on Thursday. Northwest winds will prevail through midweek, with wind speeds near 10 mph on Tuesday before increasing to 10 to 15 mph on Wednesday with higher gusts possible.

HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to very slowly decline below minor flood stage this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 54 71 47 / 20 0 0 0 MCO 81 57 73 51 / 20 0 0 0 MLB 83 58 75 51 / 20 0 0 0 VRB 83 59 76 50 / 20 10 0 0 LEE 78 54 71 48 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 81 55 72 49 / 20 0 0 0 ORL 81 57 73 51 / 20 0 0 0 FPR 84 60 77 50 / 20 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida, Tide feet

Daytona Beach (Ocean)
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Mon -- 12:37 AM EST     3.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:31 AM EST     1.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:38 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:52 PM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:22 PM EST     0.91 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida, Tide feet

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