Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ponce Inlet, FL
March 28, 2024 5:26 AM EDT (09:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:16 AM Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 9:58 PM Moonset 7:58 AM |
AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 417 Am Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
.small craft should exercise caution through early afternoon - .
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight - .
Today - West winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then, becoming north 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 11 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tonight - North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters.
Friday - North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Sunday - Southwest winds 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night - South winds 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 417 Am Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
Synopsis - A cold front will cross the waters this morning and early afternoon, with showers and isolated storms developing ahead of this boundary and pushing offshore. A fresh to strong northwest to north breeze will develop behind this passing front, producing hazardous boating conditions across the waters, with seas building through tonight. North to northeast winds will gradually diminish through tomorrow, but continue to produce poor to hazardous boating conditions through at least Friday night.
Gulf stream hazards - Winds becoming northwest today and increasing to 20 to 25 knots, with occasional gusts to 35 knots this afternoon. Seas building up to 6 to 8 feet this afternoon.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, march 26th.
52 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 25 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 7 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, march 26th.
52 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 25 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 7 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 280900 CCA AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Today-Tonight...Cold front will push across the area today, with scattered to numerous showers initially moving into areas northwest of I-4 through early this morning along and ahead of this boundary. This activity will break up some as it shifts southeastward, becoming more scattered in coverage through late morning before shifting offshore by mid afternoon. Overall instability remains rather low through early morning, but isolated thunderstorm development is still possible. Strengthening southwest winds aloft up to 30-40 knots from 925mb-700mb, and cold temps aloft around -10C at 500 mb may still allow for a few strong storms to develop, with the main threats being gusty winds up to 40-45 mph and small hail. However, better potential for this to occur would primarily be south of a line from Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee where a brief window of increasing instability will develop toward mid morning through early afternoon before this activity shifts offshore.
Drier conditions and clearing skies will rapidly build in behind the front, with breezy to windy conditions developing from mid morning through the afternoon. W/SW winds will become NW behind the front with speeds between 15 to 25 mph occurring, and gusts up to 35 mph at times possible. Despite the frontal passage, temps are still forecast to reach the upper 70s to low 80s into the afternoon.
Winds diminish past sunset out of the north, but still remain breezy along the immediate coast/barrier islands through the evening and much of the overnight. Clears skies and cooler conditions are forecast tonight, with lows falling to the low to mid 50s for much of the area.
Friday-Sunday...High pressure (~1024mb) is forecast to build over the Deep Southeast and move east over northern Florida Friday afternoon, before moving offshore over the western Atlantic Saturday morning. As this occurs, north-northeast winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph will weaken and veer onshore from the east-southeast Saturday at around 10mph with generally light and variable winds well inland. Cooler and drier air (PWATs in the 0.40-0.75" range) will filter in with northeast flow across the region Friday with dew points expected to drop into the 40s Friday afternoon and the low to mid 50s Saturday. Friday will start off chilly with lows in the low 50s to near 60 degrees, before reaching the low to upper 70s for highs under sunny skies. Lows are forecast to reach the upper 40s to low 50s inland west of I-95, as well as across coastal Volusia Saturday. Highs are forecast to reach near-normal with the upper 70s to low 80s and plenty of sunshine Saturday. Sunday will be much like Saturday but a little warmer with lows in the low 50s to near 60s degrees and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Poor to hazardous conditions will continue over the local Atlantic and at the beaches Friday.
Monday-Wednesday...Flow will veer offshore into Monday as high pressure works its way farther downstream over the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, the mid/upper level ridge is forecast to build over the Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South Monday and the Deep Southeast, including the state of Florida Tuesday, with 500mb heights reaching 588dm across north-central Florida. Guidance then shows a cold front stretching across the eastern seaboard from low pressure located over the Midwest, before the front tracks east-southeast across central Florida into the day Wednesday. Global models are in good agreement on timing but differ in strength. The ECMWF shows the strongest solution with the GFS and CMC indicating a setup similar to the past few cold fronts with the front weakening as it enters central Florida.
However, the majority of ECMWF ensemble members also show a weaker setup. Regardless, dry conditions are forecast through Tuesday with PWATs below 1". Rain chances then return Wednesday with PoPs rising to 20-40%, in addition to increasing southwest winds at 15-20mph ahead of the cold front.
Temperatures will warm above average each day with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s and highs in the low to upper 80s Monday. Lows are expected to reach the low to mid 60s Tuesday and the mid 60s to near 70 degrees Wednesday. Afternoon highs are forecast to rise into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday with partly cloudy skies Tuesday becoming cloudy Wednesday.
MARINE
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Today-Tonight...Poor boating conditions this morning will become hazardous across the coastal waters as winds increase with a passing cold front over the area. W/SW winds up to 15-20 knots early this morning will become N/NW around 20-25 knots into the afternoon.
Occasional gusts up to gale force will be possible over the offshore waters during the afternoon and evening hours. Seas will build from 4-6 feet this morning up to 6-8 feet offshore through the afternoon, and up to 7-10 feet across the waters into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect offshore by late morning and expands to include all of the waters at 2PM this afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory will then continue across the entire coastal waters into tonight.
Friday-Monday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions will gradually improve into the weekend. Northeast winds at 15-20kts are expected to veer onshore Saturday and Sunday at 8-12kts, before veering south- southwest Monday. Seas will range from 5-7ft nearshore and up to 7- 9ft offshore over the Gulf Stream Friday, then subside to 3-4ft nearshore and up to 5 ft offshore Saturday, and 2-4ft over the local Atlantic (0-60nm) Sunday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Today...A cold front will cross the area this morning and early afternoon, with scattered showers and isolated storms developing with this boundary and shifting offshore. Breezy to windy NW winds between 15 to 25 mph will develop behind the front, with gusts up to 35 mph possible at times through this afternoon. Much drier air will quickly filter in behind the front, with Min RH values falling as low as the upper 30s to low 40s across the interior, and high dispersion values developing through the afternoon. This will lead to increase in fire sensitivity today, with control problems possible with any new or existing brush fires.
Friday-Sunday...Fire sensitive conditions are expected late week and into the weekend. Northeast winds at 8-12knots are forecast Friday, before veering onshore with light and variable winds well inland Saturday. Winds are then forecast to veer south-southwest inland at 5-10kts and onshore along the coast into Sunday afternoon. Minimum RH values are expected to drop into the upper 20s to low 40 Friday and Saturday afternoons, then the mid 30s to mid 40s Sunday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Some mixing is occurring in spots allowing for breezy winds to already develop early this morning, especially around the Orlando metro area. MVFR cigs are already beginning to move ahead of an approaching cold front, with localized IFR cigs possible, especially with any showers or isolated storms that begin to move into areas northwest of I-4 toward daybreak and through early this morning.
MVFR cigs and tempo IFR/MVFR visibilities in passing showers and isolated storms will continue to shift southward across east central Florida with the front through the morning and early afternoon hours.
Drier air will rapidly fill in behind the front leading to clearing skies and VFR conditions from north to south across the area this afternoon. Breezy to windy NW winds will develop behind the front, with speeds around 15-20 knots and gusts between 25-30 knots. Northerly winds diminish tonight to around 5-10 knots across the interior, but will remain breezy along the immediate coast, especially from KMLB southward up to around 13-15 knots with gusts to 20-22 knots.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Increasing N/NW winds behind the passing cold front today, are currently forecast to allow river levels along the St. Johns River at Astor to rise to or just above Action Stage of 2.0 feet late this week. River levels should then fall below Action Stage into this weekend, as winds decrease and become onshore.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 53 71 51 / 70 0 0 0 MCO 80 55 75 53 / 60 0 0 0 MLB 80 56 74 56 / 40 0 0 0 VRB 83 57 75 55 / 40 0 0 0 LEE 78 54 76 52 / 70 0 0 0 SFB 80 54 75 53 / 70 0 0 0 ORL 80 56 76 55 / 60 0 0 0 FPR 82 55 75 54 / 40 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ552.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572-575.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Today-Tonight...Cold front will push across the area today, with scattered to numerous showers initially moving into areas northwest of I-4 through early this morning along and ahead of this boundary. This activity will break up some as it shifts southeastward, becoming more scattered in coverage through late morning before shifting offshore by mid afternoon. Overall instability remains rather low through early morning, but isolated thunderstorm development is still possible. Strengthening southwest winds aloft up to 30-40 knots from 925mb-700mb, and cold temps aloft around -10C at 500 mb may still allow for a few strong storms to develop, with the main threats being gusty winds up to 40-45 mph and small hail. However, better potential for this to occur would primarily be south of a line from Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee where a brief window of increasing instability will develop toward mid morning through early afternoon before this activity shifts offshore.
Drier conditions and clearing skies will rapidly build in behind the front, with breezy to windy conditions developing from mid morning through the afternoon. W/SW winds will become NW behind the front with speeds between 15 to 25 mph occurring, and gusts up to 35 mph at times possible. Despite the frontal passage, temps are still forecast to reach the upper 70s to low 80s into the afternoon.
Winds diminish past sunset out of the north, but still remain breezy along the immediate coast/barrier islands through the evening and much of the overnight. Clears skies and cooler conditions are forecast tonight, with lows falling to the low to mid 50s for much of the area.
Friday-Sunday...High pressure (~1024mb) is forecast to build over the Deep Southeast and move east over northern Florida Friday afternoon, before moving offshore over the western Atlantic Saturday morning. As this occurs, north-northeast winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph will weaken and veer onshore from the east-southeast Saturday at around 10mph with generally light and variable winds well inland. Cooler and drier air (PWATs in the 0.40-0.75" range) will filter in with northeast flow across the region Friday with dew points expected to drop into the 40s Friday afternoon and the low to mid 50s Saturday. Friday will start off chilly with lows in the low 50s to near 60 degrees, before reaching the low to upper 70s for highs under sunny skies. Lows are forecast to reach the upper 40s to low 50s inland west of I-95, as well as across coastal Volusia Saturday. Highs are forecast to reach near-normal with the upper 70s to low 80s and plenty of sunshine Saturday. Sunday will be much like Saturday but a little warmer with lows in the low 50s to near 60s degrees and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Poor to hazardous conditions will continue over the local Atlantic and at the beaches Friday.
Monday-Wednesday...Flow will veer offshore into Monday as high pressure works its way farther downstream over the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, the mid/upper level ridge is forecast to build over the Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South Monday and the Deep Southeast, including the state of Florida Tuesday, with 500mb heights reaching 588dm across north-central Florida. Guidance then shows a cold front stretching across the eastern seaboard from low pressure located over the Midwest, before the front tracks east-southeast across central Florida into the day Wednesday. Global models are in good agreement on timing but differ in strength. The ECMWF shows the strongest solution with the GFS and CMC indicating a setup similar to the past few cold fronts with the front weakening as it enters central Florida.
However, the majority of ECMWF ensemble members also show a weaker setup. Regardless, dry conditions are forecast through Tuesday with PWATs below 1". Rain chances then return Wednesday with PoPs rising to 20-40%, in addition to increasing southwest winds at 15-20mph ahead of the cold front.
Temperatures will warm above average each day with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s and highs in the low to upper 80s Monday. Lows are expected to reach the low to mid 60s Tuesday and the mid 60s to near 70 degrees Wednesday. Afternoon highs are forecast to rise into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday with partly cloudy skies Tuesday becoming cloudy Wednesday.
MARINE
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Today-Tonight...Poor boating conditions this morning will become hazardous across the coastal waters as winds increase with a passing cold front over the area. W/SW winds up to 15-20 knots early this morning will become N/NW around 20-25 knots into the afternoon.
Occasional gusts up to gale force will be possible over the offshore waters during the afternoon and evening hours. Seas will build from 4-6 feet this morning up to 6-8 feet offshore through the afternoon, and up to 7-10 feet across the waters into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect offshore by late morning and expands to include all of the waters at 2PM this afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory will then continue across the entire coastal waters into tonight.
Friday-Monday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions will gradually improve into the weekend. Northeast winds at 15-20kts are expected to veer onshore Saturday and Sunday at 8-12kts, before veering south- southwest Monday. Seas will range from 5-7ft nearshore and up to 7- 9ft offshore over the Gulf Stream Friday, then subside to 3-4ft nearshore and up to 5 ft offshore Saturday, and 2-4ft over the local Atlantic (0-60nm) Sunday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Today...A cold front will cross the area this morning and early afternoon, with scattered showers and isolated storms developing with this boundary and shifting offshore. Breezy to windy NW winds between 15 to 25 mph will develop behind the front, with gusts up to 35 mph possible at times through this afternoon. Much drier air will quickly filter in behind the front, with Min RH values falling as low as the upper 30s to low 40s across the interior, and high dispersion values developing through the afternoon. This will lead to increase in fire sensitivity today, with control problems possible with any new or existing brush fires.
Friday-Sunday...Fire sensitive conditions are expected late week and into the weekend. Northeast winds at 8-12knots are forecast Friday, before veering onshore with light and variable winds well inland Saturday. Winds are then forecast to veer south-southwest inland at 5-10kts and onshore along the coast into Sunday afternoon. Minimum RH values are expected to drop into the upper 20s to low 40 Friday and Saturday afternoons, then the mid 30s to mid 40s Sunday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Some mixing is occurring in spots allowing for breezy winds to already develop early this morning, especially around the Orlando metro area. MVFR cigs are already beginning to move ahead of an approaching cold front, with localized IFR cigs possible, especially with any showers or isolated storms that begin to move into areas northwest of I-4 toward daybreak and through early this morning.
MVFR cigs and tempo IFR/MVFR visibilities in passing showers and isolated storms will continue to shift southward across east central Florida with the front through the morning and early afternoon hours.
Drier air will rapidly fill in behind the front leading to clearing skies and VFR conditions from north to south across the area this afternoon. Breezy to windy NW winds will develop behind the front, with speeds around 15-20 knots and gusts between 25-30 knots. Northerly winds diminish tonight to around 5-10 knots across the interior, but will remain breezy along the immediate coast, especially from KMLB southward up to around 13-15 knots with gusts to 20-22 knots.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Increasing N/NW winds behind the passing cold front today, are currently forecast to allow river levels along the St. Johns River at Astor to rise to or just above Action Stage of 2.0 feet late this week. River levels should then fall below Action Stage into this weekend, as winds decrease and become onshore.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 53 71 51 / 70 0 0 0 MCO 80 55 75 53 / 60 0 0 0 MLB 80 56 74 56 / 40 0 0 0 VRB 83 57 75 55 / 40 0 0 0 LEE 78 54 76 52 / 70 0 0 0 SFB 80 54 75 53 / 70 0 0 0 ORL 80 56 76 55 / 60 0 0 0 FPR 82 55 75 54 / 40 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ552.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572-575.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
41069 | 15 mi | 79 min | NNW 7.8G | 67°F | 66°F | 29.83 | 65°F | |
41070 | 15 mi | 87 min | 66°F | 4 ft | ||||
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL | 42 mi | 102 min | S 1 | 65°F | 29.89 | 62°F | ||
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL | 51 mi | 57 min | SSW 9.9G | 72°F | 77°F | 29.82 | ||
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL | 55 mi | 87 min | NNW 4.1G | 67°F | 64°F | 29.84 | 67°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KDAB DAYTONA BEACH INTL,FL | 9 sm | 33 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 68°F | 66°F | 94% | 29.84 | |
KDED DELAND MUNISIDNEY H TAYLOR FIELD,FL | 19 sm | 11 min | N 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 68°F | 64°F | 88% | 29.84 |
Tide / Current for Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida, Tide feet
Daytona Beach (Ocean)
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:39 AM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:58 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 10:34 AM EDT 3.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:33 PM EDT 0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:40 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:57 PM EDT 4.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:58 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:39 AM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:58 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 10:34 AM EDT 3.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:33 PM EDT 0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:40 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:57 PM EDT 4.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:58 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida, Tide feet
12 am |
3.6 |
1 am |
2.7 |
2 am |
1.7 |
3 am |
0.9 |
4 am |
0.3 |
5 am |
0.3 |
6 am |
0.6 |
7 am |
1.3 |
8 am |
2.2 |
9 am |
2.9 |
10 am |
3.4 |
11 am |
3.4 |
12 pm |
3 |
1 pm |
2.3 |
2 pm |
1.5 |
3 pm |
0.7 |
4 pm |
0.2 |
5 pm |
0.2 |
6 pm |
0.7 |
7 pm |
1.5 |
8 pm |
2.4 |
9 pm |
3.3 |
10 pm |
4 |
11 pm |
4.2 |
Melbourne, FL,
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