Monday, February17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Samsula-Spruce Creek, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 6:15PM Monday February 17, 2020 6:59 AM EST (11:59 UTC) Moonrise 2:23AMMoonset 1:05PM Illumination 37% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 405 Am Est Mon Feb 17 2020
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 5 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..East winds 5 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 7 to 10 feet. Showers likely.
Friday..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 9 to 12 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 405 Am Est Mon Feb 17 2020
Synopsis..Expect favorable boating conditions through mid week. Light winds today and tonight will allow seas to continue to subside. Winds increase slightly out of the southeast and south Tuesday then the pressure gradient collapses Wednesday resulting in lighter winds. A cold front is forecast to cross the waters on Thursday quickly followed by a surge of strong north to northeast winds with gale force gusts Thursday night and Friday.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday, february 17th. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Samsula-Spruce Creek, FL
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location: 29.1, -81.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 170919 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 419 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

DISCUSSION.

. Much Above Normal Temperatures Through Mid Week . . Significant High Seas and Surf Event Likely Late Week .

Current . An inverted surface trough continues to extend NNE from central FL to offshore the SE CONUS early this morning. Precip from yesterday's fast moving disturbance has exited not only the state, but the local Atlantic waters as well. Areas of multilayered clouds continue over the peninsula, with some breaks noted on GOES IR and RGBNTM imagery.

Today-tonight . Flow aloft remains flat over the next 24h as a mid level ridge begins to build north toward SOFL. Surface/low level flow remains slack as a weak trough lingers overhead. Deep layer PWAT will decrease quite a bit today, however lingering low level moisture coupled with local sea/lake boundaries may be enough to produce a few diurnal showers. Slightly better chances expected near the coast from early-mid afternoon and thereafter over the interior. Coverage could be a tad higher around Lake O given the potential for Lake breeze enhancement. Temperatures will remain well above normal for mid-February . L-M80s for maxes and L-M60s for mins.

Tuesday-Wednesday . A mid level ridge centered over the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba will result in deep layer westerly flow across the FL peninsula. In the lower levels, Atlc ridge axis across central FL will produce warm southerly flow Tue and SW flow Wed. Low level moisture will produce a cu field but drier air in the mid levels will limit shower coverage. Isolated showers should be focused across northern sections Tue then all of EC FL Wed. Prospect for thunder looks too low to mention both days. There will be a more discrete east coast sea breeze boundary on Wed but forecast model soundings show warming mid level temps. Temperatures will be much above normal with highs in the mid 80s both days across the interior. Slightly cooler along the coast with the onshore flow but a delayed sea breeze Wed will produce some mid 80s close to the coast. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Thursday-Sunday . Amplifying mid level short wave trough over the eastern CONUS will push a cold front through central FL on Thu. A strong (1045 mb) sfc high over the midwest will build SE and produce a post-frontal surge of N/NE winds Thu night and Fri. Windy conditions expected along the coast with 20-25 mph and gusts to 35 mph. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken over the weekend allowing winds to decrease. Will likely need a High Surf Advisory late this week for large breaking waves producing beach erosion especially around the times of high tide.

Rain chances associated with the frontal passage on Thu will be 30-40 percent. Then rain chances increase along the coast in the post-frontal air mass Thu night-Fri with 50-60 percent PoPs, decreasing inland to 20-30 percent. As the onshore winds decrease this weekend, so too will the rain chances but will hold onto chance PoPs (30-40 percent) on Sat and slight chance (20 percent) on Sunday.

Based on the frontal timing, expected a wide range in max temps Thu with low to mid 70s north to low to mid 80s south. Cooler maxes Fri . low 60s north to low 70s south. Have stayed above GFS MOS for min temps Fri night especially along the coast, given the strength of the onshore winds. Over the weekend, max temps in the upper 60s/lower 70s Sat and low to mid 70s Sunday.

AVIATION. Patches, perhaps areas of IFR stratus continue to occasionally impact many of the local aerodromes, however its areal coverage is difficult to discern using GOES Fog/RGBNTM products due to obscuration by high clouds. Have opted for TEMPO groups through 13-14Z for now, but may get a better feel if the high clouds can thin some more. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs BKN015-030 in diurnal CU/SCU 14Z-18Z, rising to VFR CIGs by 18Z, and breaking up around 00Z

MARINE. Today-tonight . Favorable boating conditions expected in presence of surface trough. Light winds become SE 5-10KT late tonight. Seas 3-5FT early, subsiding to 2-4FT through tonight.

Tuesday-Friday . High pressure ridge axis across central FL Tue will weaken and nudge southward Wed. This will result in a southerly flow 10-15 knots Tue and SW 10 knots or less Wed, turning onshore in a sea breeze near the coast. Seas 3-4 ft Tue, dropping back to 2-3 ft Wed/Wed night.

A cold front will push south across the waters Thu with a north wind shift of 10-15 knots spreading southward. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly Thu aftn and Thu night as strong high pressure builds over the area, producing a surge of sustained N-NE winds around 25 kt with gusts to Gale force. Seas will build rapidly Thu night into Fri, reaching 8-10ft near shore and up to 16ft in the Gulf Stream. While this event will not likely be a true Gale, we may issue a Gale Warning for frequent gusts to Gale force at least for the offshore waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 77 62 81 66 / 20 10 20 20 MCO 83 64 85 67 / 20 0 10 10 MLB 79 67 81 68 / 10 0 10 10 VRB 82 66 83 68 / 10 0 10 10 LEE 81 64 86 68 / 20 0 20 10 SFB 82 63 85 67 / 20 10 20 10 ORL 83 65 85 69 / 20 10 20 10 FPR 82 67 83 66 / 10 0 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.



SHORT TERM . Cristaldi LONG TERM . Kelly AVIATION . Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 39 mi74 min NNW 4.1 61°F 1019 hPa60°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 53 mi59 min NNW 8 G 8.9 60°F 62°F1018 hPa (+0.9)
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 55 mi65 min 66°F 70°F1018 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL7 mi66 minNNW 38.00 miOvercast65°F64°F100%1017.3 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL23 mi66 minWNW 31.75 miFog/Mist63°F62°F97%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAB

Wind History from DAB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS5S9S6S6E7SE9
G16
SE86E5SE4W5
G21
N4N5N9SE4N7CalmE3CalmN4N4N3
1 day agoNE14
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NE13NE14NE11NE13NE11NE9E5E4NE4E5NE3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN9N9N14
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Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.