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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 933 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Tonight..South winds 5 knots, becoming west late in the night. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 933 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis..A cold will sag into the local waters early Monday morning. The front will push into south florida Monday night, with high pressure building over the local waters through early week. A secondary surge of fresh northerly winds will reach the local waters Wednesday into Thursday as low pressure develops off the mid atlantic and northeast u.s. Coasts.

Gulf stream hazards..None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday, december 3rd.
43 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 040311 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1011 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION

UPDATE
Issued at 918 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

KMLB radar imagery shows isolated showers over the local Atlatic waters. This is well ahead of a cold front across the eastern CONUS and northern Florida which will cross the Penisula Monday.
Current temperatures are in the upper 60s to low 70s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Isolated showers are forecast overnight and into Monday morning over the local Atlantic waters, as well as north of I-4. Patchy dense fog is also forecast within a few hours leading up to sunrise and shortly after. Visibilities will have the potential to drop to below one mile in spots, especially across portions of Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange and Lake counties.
If you encounter patchy dense fog while driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. Any fog that develops should burn off by around 9am. Expect overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

MARINE
Issued at 918 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Current-Monday... A cold front will cross the local waters Monday afternoon. Isolated showers are forecast through Monday afternoon.
West-southwest winds around 8-14kts will build seas to 1-2ft with up to 3-4 ft in the offshore waters (20-60nm).

Tuesday-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The aforementioned cold front will stall across South Florida's waters and the Keys early Tuesday before diminishing. Behind the front, conditions dry out as an area of high pressure builds across the southeastern US. Expect northwest winds on Tuesday, with speeds generally between 10 to 15 knots. On Wednesday, a reinforcing frontal boundary will push southward across the Florida peninsula and local Atlantic waters, resulting in the northwesterly winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots across the local Atlantic waters. Winds will veer to out of the northeast on Thursday and decrease back to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet on Tuesday, increasing to 4 to 8 feet on Wednesday due to the winds, and then decreasing slightly to 3 to 7 feet on Thursday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 918 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

TAFs start off VFR. IFR CIGs are forecast overnight into Monday morning at KDAB, KLEE, KMCO, KSFB, and KLEE. Patchy fog is also possible, especially across the interior. Cloud cover will gradually decrease into the afternoon behind a cold front that will cross the Penisula Monday. Expect west to southwest winds at 5-10kts.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 918 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Tonight/Mon...The cold front remains well to the west near TLH late this aftn but there is a pre-frontal trough or outflow boundary pushing into northern sections sparking scattered showers and isolated storms and a temporary wind shift out of the W/NW.
This activity will continue to push E/SE into this evening into Osceola and Brevard counties and offshore. A brief downpour and gusty wind up to 40 mph is possible with the stronger cells. The front will slide into central FL overnight and early Monday and bring isolated showers. The HRRR shows stratus and fog expanding from the FL Gulf coast reaching southern and interior sections late tonight. The low clouds could linger much of Monday morning and even when they diminish, considerable mid and high clouds will keep skies mostly cloudy. Not a lot of cooling immediately behind this front. Max temps will range from the upper 70s Lake and Volusia to the lower 80s south with a few mid 80s possible.

Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The aforementioned cold front is progged to stall across South Florida and the Keys early Tuesday before diminishing, with the Euro showing a faster decay of the boundary than the GFS. At the surface, a high pressure system over the central US will gradually strength and shift eastward across the southeastern US behind the front. Locally, northerly winds will help filter in the drier, cooler airmass into east central Florida. Thus, rain chances will be less than 10 percent with lower relative humidities as well.

Afternoon highs on Tuesday will fall closer to climatological normal for this time of year, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s across east central Florida. Overnight lows on Tuesday in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday-Saturday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Dry conditions are forecast across east central Florida through the remainder of the period. A mid-level trough will sweep across the southeastern US on Wednesday, pushing a reinforcing frontal boundary across the peninsula at the surface, with even drier and cooler air forecast to push in behind the front. As a result, clearing skies are forecast across the area Wednesday through Wednesday night. As the surface high shifts eastward towards the Atlantic, onshore flow will return Thursday into Friday, leading to some increasing moisture across the area and therefore increasing cloud coverage.

Coolest temperatures are forecast on Wednesday as a result of the reinforcing boundary, with afternoon highs in the low 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the low 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures will then gradually warm through the remainder of the week into the weekend, with afternoon highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s on Thursday and in the low 70s to low 80s Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows in the mid 40s to upper 50s on Thursday and in the low 50s to mid 60s Friday and Saturday nights.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 231 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023 The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to continue a very slow decline this week. The river is forecast to remain within Minor Flood Stage through mid week, but could fall into Action Stage later in the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 79 54 71 / 20 20 0 0 MCO 69 80 57 72 / 10 20 0 0 MLB 68 82 58 75 / 10 20 0 0 VRB 67 83 58 76 / 20 20 0 0 LEE 67 78 54 70 / 20 20 0 0 SFB 68 80 55 72 / 10 20 0 0 ORL 70 81 57 73 / 10 20 0 0 FPR 67 83 58 77 / 10 20 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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