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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 925 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Wednesday night...
This afternoon..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 4 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 5 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 925 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis..High pressure will build over the local atlantic today, followed by a secondary surge of fresh northerly winds overspreading the local waters Wednesday and Wednesday night, as low pressure develops off the eastern u.s. Coast. This will produce hazardous boating conditions, especially well offshore. Boating conditions are then forecast to improve only slightly starting Thursday as high pressure builds into the southeast u.s.

Gulf stream hazards..None today. Northwest winds increasing to 20 knots with seas building to between 5 and 6 feet late tonight north of sebastian inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday, december 3rd.
43 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 051419 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 919 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 844 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Morning Cape sounding shows considerable dry air in the low levels up through 700 mb with moisture in the upper levels. Some altocumulus and especially cirrostratus will stream rapidly eastward across the area in fast flow and maintain partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be more seasonable with max temps ranging from the lower 70s across LEE/DAB to near 80F Martin county. Current forecast is on track with no significant changes needed.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 844 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR with W to NW flow up to 10 knots thru tonight. Then NW flow increases 12-15 knots Wed with gusts 20-24 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 844 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Today-Tonight...Dry conditions are forecast across east central Florida today into tonight as the frontal boundary stalls across south Florida and an area of high pressure builds across the southeastern US. Drier air will continue to filter in across the area from the north, with higher moisture aloft keeping skies partly cloudy through most of today into the overnight hours. Northwest winds will persist, generally around 10 mph. A temperature gradient will exist across the peninsula this afternoon, with highs across the northern half of the forecast area in the low to mid 70s and in the mid 70s to low 80s across the southern half. Overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday-Friday...Sharp mid level along the length of the eastern CONUS pushes offshore into the Atlantic during the afternoon with a transient flat ridge rebuilding over FL late Thu-Thu night. This ridge will push east of Florida through Fri night as weak rippled of vorticity stream ENE across the SE CONUS and FL. At the surface a NW- N wind surge will push even cooler air Wed-Wed night. The cool shot will be "one and done" as winds quickly veer onshore/ENE early Thu, veering to east and briefly slackening through Thu night as a high pressure ridge settles along the SE seaboard. Winds continue to veer SE and begin to freshen Fri-Fri night as the ridge shifts east and strengthens over the western Atlantic. This allow temps to rebound after a cool start to the mid-week.

While conditions are forecast to remain dry through the end of the work week, an active subtropical jetstream continues overhead. Some transient drying aloft allows high clouds to thin Wed-Wed night, however increasing H50-H20 RH fields portend high clouds returning Thu, thickening through Fri. Temps Wed-Wed night L60s/L40s north to U40s/U60s south, except L50s along the immediate coast as winds start to veer N-NNE. WCIs in the U30s north of I-4 away from the metro areas. Maxes U60s-L70s on Thu with mins U40s-L50s interior, 55- 60F closer to the coast. For Fri, L70s north/M-U70s central and south with mins U50s interior north to M60s Treasure Coast.

Saturday-Monday...High amplitude northern stream trough digs into the central CONUS Sat, become negatively tilted as it cross the MS Valley Sun, then lifts NE through the eastern CONUS and into the Great Lakes Sun night. In its wake, broadly cyclonic zonal/ WSW over the SE CONUS/FL gradually flattens through Mon night. Will need to monitor trends as there may be potential for strong/ severe storms (especially north) along/ahead of the front on Sun.
Models show S-SW H85 winds increase 30-35kt (ECM 35-45kt), with favorable bulk shear values reaching 40-50kt north of Orlando-Cape Canaveral.

Weekend temps U70s north/L80s south. Sat night mins in the 60s, falling back to 50s-L60s (U40s far NW) Sun night. Quite a bit cooler for Mon with maxes U60s NW of I-4 and L-M70s to the south with mins similar to Sun night.

MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots across the local Atlantic waters today into the early overnight hours will keep seas between 2 to 4 feet. Late tonight, winds begin to increase to 15 to 20 knots across the northern waters as an area of low pressure develops across the Atlantic and a reinforcing boundary begins to move across the local waters. This will lead to seas increasing to 4 to 6 feet late tonight, with further increases in both winds and seas expected into Wednesday across the local Atlantic waters. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect after 09Z across the Volusia and Brevard waters.

Wednesday-Saturday...Hazardous winds/seas spread south across the Treasure Coast waters after sunrise, as NW-N winds increase to 20-25kt with seas building to 5-7ft near shore and 7-9ft well offshore during the day and continue into Wed night. NW winds drop back to 15-20kt early Thu morning and 8-12kt by evening as they veer easterly. A lingering swell will keep seas elevated (4-6ft) into early evening, before dropping back to 3-5ft late Thu night-Fri. Gradual freshening of SE winds to 12-17kt Sat will maintain 3-5ft seas Sat morning, building up to 6ft well offshore in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...
Much drier air behind a cold front will produce fire sensitive conditions Wednesday, with minimum RH values dropping into the Low-mid 30s with NW winds 15 mph/gusty at times. Min RH values quickly recover starting Thursday in developing onshore flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 48 63 48 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 74 51 64 47 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 77 51 67 52 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 77 50 69 53 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 71 48 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 74 49 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 74 51 65 47 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 79 50 68 53 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ555-575.

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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
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Tue -- 12:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:32 AM EST     3.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:30 AM EST     1.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:43 PM EST     3.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:09 PM EST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida, Tide feet

Ormond Beach
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Tue -- 12:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:25 AM EST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 05:23 AM EST     0.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:41 PM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:40 PM EST     0.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ormond Beach, Halifax River, Florida, Tide feet

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