Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Otter Creek, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:02PM Sunday January 26, 2020 5:54 AM EST (10:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:43AMMoonset 7:49PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 316 Am Est Sun Jan 26 2020
Today..North winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..North winds around 5 knots then becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Monday..South winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northeast winds around 5 knots increasing to around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots diminishing to around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Thursday..North winds around 10 knots diminishing to around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 316 Am Est Sun Jan 26 2020
Synopsis..High pressure over the northern gulf slides off to the east, resulting in northerly winds to gradually shift to the northeast on Sunday. A weak sea breeze will allow for an onshore component during the afternoon. An approaching weak surface low on Monday will shift winds to the south and bring some isolated showers over the waters. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected for the next 5 days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Otter Creek, FL
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location: 29.2, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 260814 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 314 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

DISCUSSION. Cool, fairly calm, and dry are the big words to kick off Sunday. Surface high pressure remains in control as a subtle upper-level ridge axis continues its eastward propagation. This will lead to the continuation of fair weather conditions leading into Monday.

The upper-level pattern is fairly zonal across much of the Southeast, and really won't change all that much over the next few days. However, a couple shortwave perturbations will propagate eastward, and this will aide in keeping our weather pattern at least mildly interesting for the first half of the work week. These shortwave troughs will provide a concentrated zone of ascent, aiding in the development of showers and possibly thunderstorms. The big question yet to be completely resolved is will these systems hold together long enough to provide us rain.

Late Monday has the greatest chance for that to take place, but it is still fairly week. Convection is quick to fire off over the warm and moist central Gulf, but the rapid weakening of the shortwave trough, and the fairly hostile environment that the convection will be moving into, really only yield the opportunity for some scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm favoring SW Florida. A similar story is playing out for Wednesday too, but favoring the Nature Coast instead.

Late week is when things become much more interesting. Details are still fuzzy this far out, and model guidance differs significantly, particularly in timing. However, conditions are favorable ahead of a much deeper trough axis for a low pressure system to develop that will bring unsettled weather for the weekend. In the wake of this front, cooler and breezier conditions can be expected with high pressure again in control.

AVIATION. VFR conditions prevail with generally light northerly winds. The light flow could briefly prompt a weak seabreeze near the coast that could turn winds more northwesterly in the afternoon before winds turn back northerly and become almost calm overnight.

MARINE. Pleasant boating conditions continue through Sunday. Several weather systems throughout the week could lead to rounds of showers beginning on Monday and continuing off and on through the rest of the work week, but conditions are expected to remain otherwise benign for boating with northerly winds turning southerly as the next system approaches and then northerly again once it passes.

FIRE WEATHER. With a dry high pressure system in control, dewpoints will likely drop across much of the region below 35 percent for a couple hours this afternoon. ERCs also creep into the upper 20s to around 30 for some counties as well. However, winds are expected to remain light. As such, no red flag conditions are expected at this time. Humidity values will improve towards the evening and will begin to rebound further heading into Monday as a weak low pressure disturbance moves toward the Florida coastline, potentially bringing with it a few showers. No further fire weather concerns exist through the remainder of the forecast period.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. TPA 66 52 70 55 / 0 0 20 10 FMY 70 54 73 59 / 0 0 30 10 GIF 67 51 72 53 / 0 0 20 10 SRQ 68 50 72 55 / 0 0 30 10 BKV 67 42 71 46 / 0 0 20 10 SPG 66 56 70 58 / 0 0 30 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. Gulf waters . None.

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER . Flannery DECISION SUPPORT . Hubbard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 20 mi55 min N 2.9 G 4.1 51°F 1019.4 hPa (-1.0)42°F
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 65 mi55 min N 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 1019.8 hPa (-0.9)39°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ocala International Airport - Jim Taylor Field, FL23 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair40°F39°F97%1019.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCF

Wind History from OCF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S6S7S10SW7S3SW13
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2 days agoN6N6N7N7N5N7N6NE55E7E74E4E5E5E4NE5E3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Withlacoochee River entrance, Florida
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Withlacoochee River entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:54 AM EST     3.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:36 AM EST     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:04 PM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:04 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:49 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:22 PM EST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.93.12.92.51.91.10.4-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.10.71.72.52.82.72.31.81.30.90.60.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Florida Power, Florida
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Florida Power
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:44 AM EST     3.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:11 AM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:54 PM EST     3.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:04 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:49 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:57 PM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.43.63.32.71.91.10.3-0.3-0.6-0.40.31.32.333.232.51.81.20.70.60.91.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.