Friday, January22, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Otter Creek, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:00PM Friday January 22, 2021 10:02 AM EST (15:02 UTC) Moonrise 1:10PMMoonset 2:00AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 259 Am Est Fri Jan 22 2021
Today..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers. Areas of sea fog in the late evening and overnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Areas of sea fog.
Saturday night..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Areas of sea fog.
Sunday..East winds around 10 knots then becoming west around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Areas of sea fog.
Sunday night..East winds around 10 knots then becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Areas of sea fog.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Areas of sea fog.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Areas of sea fog early in the evening.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 259 Am Est Fri Jan 22 2021
Synopsis.. A weak pressure pattern over the state will produce light winds untill the weekend when high pressure builds north of the state producing offshore winds. Expect winds to be stronger and onshore near the coast each afternoon producing choppy surf.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Otter Creek, FL
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location: 29.2, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 221333 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 833 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

UPDATE. Showers in the vicinity of the nearly stationary boundary across the Deep South and north Florida could move south into Levy county this afternoon and possibly down to around the Interstate 4 corridor later tonight and Saturday. For now have bumped PoPs up slightly for Levy county this afternoon, but will wait to see what 12z model guidance indicates for tonight and Saturday before changing. Remainder of forecast looks ok at this time with no changes planned.

AVIATION. Mainly VFR conditions are expected into early tonight, then some areas of MVFR/local IFR conditions could develop. South to southwest winds at 6 to 11 knots are expected today diminishing and becoming light tonight.

Prev Discussion. /issued 247 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021/

DISCUSSION . Models are pretty consistent since yesterday. A trough over the Southwestern states will kick out and fill as it moves east. In its place a deeper trough will build over the southwest building a deep layer ridge over Florida. This ridge will translate into some unseasonably warm temperatures next week with areas over the southern interior seeing widespread mid 80s and maybe even a few upper 80s. 80 degree temperatures are possible as far north as inland Levy County by mid next week. Water temperatures are still in the lower and mid 60s so do not expect 80s in you live anywhere near the coast.

There is a boundary of sorts (although I really cannot find any discernible difference in the air mass on either side of it, Valdosta is 60 degrees with a 59 TD and Tampa is 60 degrees with a 56 TD) across North Florida that the models are insisting will bring a shower or two to Levy County. The bigger impact is that the col associated with the boundary will bring light onshore winds Saturday morning blowing mid and upper 60s dew point air over low and mid 60s water temperatures. I will introduce some sea fog to the forecast for Saturday. Sunday the surface ridge builds to the north and the winds turn offshore so sea fog should not be an issue again until Tuesday when the wind switches to onshore ahead of an approaching front.

That front which will impact us late in the forecast period is the result of the longwave trough over the southwest kicking out to the east through the Ohio Valley. That in turn will lower surface pressures over South Georgia and then eastward into the Atlantic. The surface low will tap Gulf Stream energy and deepen pulling cold air southward in its wake. Yesterday it looked like the axis of the maximum of cold advection would be a couple hundred miles east of the state. Today it is starting to look like a cold air damming/backdoor cold front event setting up for a week from today. For those of us that do not like cold wx it does not look like it will last too long as the system is very progressive. I have also learned to take models seven days out with a grain of salt, but it is something to watch.

MARINE . Very light winds and warm weather will make for great boating all week. There may be some sea fog issues Saturday morning and again starting Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER . Humidities will be increasing and dispersion decreasing the next few days. The next shot of dry air should be in about a week.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. TPA 73 62 73 60 / 0 10 10 0 FMY 75 60 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 76 61 72 60 / 0 10 10 0 SRQ 73 62 74 60 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 74 58 71 55 / 0 10 10 0 SPG 71 62 71 61 / 0 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. Gulf waters . None.

UPDATE/AVIATION . Close PREV DISCUSSION . Sobien UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT . Carlisle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 20 mi63 min SW 5.1 G 8 61°F 1016.4 hPa (+1.5)61°F
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 53 mi129 min Calm G 2.9 61°F 1016.1 hPa
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 65 mi63 min S 6 G 7 61°F 1015.8 hPa (+1.3)61°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ocala International Airport - Jim Taylor Field, FL23 mi72 minSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F61°F100%1016.8 hPa
Crystal River Airport, FL23 mi68 minSW 510.00 miOvercast64°F61°F88%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCF

Wind History from OCF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE34W75SW4SW8W9W6CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4
2 days agoE8NE56E7E63S3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmN3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Withlacoochee River entrance, Florida
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Withlacoochee River entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:00 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:05 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:13 AM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:55 PM EST     1.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:03 PM EST     2.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.90.60.40.30.40.71.11.41.71.91.81.71.61.51.41.51.822.22.32.32.11.9

Tide / Current Tables for Florida Power, Florida
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Florida Power
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:00 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:40 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:03 AM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:30 PM EST     1.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:53 PM EST     2.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.80.50.30.30.50.91.31.722.12.11.81.61.41.41.622.32.62.72.62.42.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station



Gulf Stream Current



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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.