Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Otter Creek, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 8:31PM Monday July 13, 2020 6:26 AM EDT (10:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:30AMMoonset 1:18PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 342 Am Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Today..Southwest winds around 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds around 10 knots then becoming north around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..North winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest early in the afternoon, then increasing to around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming east in the late evening and overnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots early in the afternoon, then increasing to around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 342 Am Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Synopsis.. Westerly winds will continue through mid week with possible showers during the early morning hours. Weak winds return Wednesday with onshore sea breeze in the afternoon. Thursday through the weekend, east winds will favor showers and storms over the waters by late evening through the overnight hours. No headlines are anticipated through the period. The main threat will be associated with showers and Thunderstorms that will be capable of producing frequent lightning, locally gusty winds, and rough seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Otter Creek, FL
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location: 29.2, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 130728 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 328 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. At the start of the work week, a longwave upper level trough resides across the eastern half of the CONUS. Several embedded shortwaves will be lifting northeast out of the Central Appalachians, resulting in a deamplification of the broader trough. This troughing pattern extends to the surface along with a diffused front that had stalled out over the Peninsula yesterday. The subtropical high will be located near Bermuda with the ridge axis well south of FL - over Cuba.

DISCUSSION. As a result of the aforementioned low-level pattern, westerly flow in the 1000mb-700mb layer will be moderate to strong . This is the same as what we've been experiencing lately. However, much drier air (1.10-1.50 inch PWAT) will be in place across the I-4 corridor. This swath of drier air was already sampled on last night's 00Z sounding at KTBW with 1.39 inches and record low PWATs may occur on this upcoming 12Z sounding. This pocket of drier air will sag south through the day, suppressing convective activity along the way. A few showers and thunderstorms may be able to pop off across the southern interior counties out ahead of the drier air. Meanwhile, farther north across the Nature Coast, a much more moist and favorable environment will be in place so expect a better chance for late afternoon / early evening convection. Otherwise, it looks to be a warm and dry (with respect to rainfall - it'll still be humid) day tomorrow, especially for West Central FL. High temps in the low to mid 90s with heat indices up to 107 degrees.

Tuesday will be a similar set up as far as low-level flow pattern goes. Moisture recovery will result in higher PoP coverage with the early morning showers coming in off the Gulf, transitioning to convective activity favoring our inland counties through the remainder of the day. Temps will be very similar to Monday's - a degree or two above climatology .

Our pattern finally shifts by Wednesday as broad surface ridging sprawls across the southeast, weakening the flow over our area. A limiting factor to convective development will be less than optimal moisture. Depending on where this small pocket of lower PWATs resides will determine who has the best chance of rain. Decided to trim down PoPs compared to model blend to reflect this. Regardless, the greatest chance of precip will be well inland, across the eastern portions of our inland counties

Thursday will be a transition day of our low-level pattern as weak east to northeast flow will be in place, along with adequate moisture to support scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms. Moving forward into Friday through the weekend, rain chances will shift dramatically in our favor (i.e. the western half of the Peninsula) as strong east to southeast flow returns to the Sunshine State. Under this regime, the Tampa Bay area along with all of our coastal communities can expect late afternoon/evening storms, with outflow boundaries moving out over the waters around sunset. Overnight and early morning showers and storms will be possible over the waters while we are in this easterly flow . Same story for temperatures with highs in the low-mid 90s, and lows in the 70s through the remainder of the period.

AVIATION. (06Z TAF Cycle) Prevailing VFR through the period with westerly flow between 08-12 knots in the afternoon. Drier air will limit convection today across most of our TAF sites. However, VCSH will be in place for RSW and FMY through 15Z, becoming VCTS through 18Z before clearing is likely to occur. A caveat to the convective development across these southern TAF sites exists as there is some uncertainty on the southern extent of the drier air. This will be narrowed down in subsequent TAF cycles.

MARINE. Westerly winds will continue through mid week with possible showers during the early morning hours. Weak winds return Wednesday with onshore sea breeze in the afternoon. Thursday through the weekend, east winds will favor showers and storms over the waters by late evening through the overnight hours. No headlines are anticipated through the period. The main threat will be associated with showers and thunderstorms that will be capable of producing frequent lightning, locally gusty winds, and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER. Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be capable of frequent lightning and gusty winds from outflow boundaries. Otherwise, ample low-level moisture will preclude any major fire weather concerns through the period.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. TPA 92 80 91 79 / 10 20 40 10 FMY 92 78 93 77 / 30 10 20 10 GIF 94 77 94 76 / 10 10 50 20 SRQ 92 79 91 78 / 10 10 30 10 BKV 92 76 91 74 / 10 20 40 10 SPG 91 80 90 80 / 10 20 30 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. Gulf waters . None.

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER . 42/Norman DECISION SUPPORT . 69/Close


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 20 mi87 min WSW 8.9 G 12 84°F 1011.7 hPa (-0.0)73°F
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 65 mi27 min WNW 12 G 15 84°F 1011.9 hPa (+0.7)76°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ocala International Airport - Jim Taylor Field, FL23 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair72°F71°F97%1012.8 hPa
Crystal River Airport, FL23 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair70°F68°F94%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCF

Wind History from OCF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3CalmCalm34W75NW8W8W7SW7SW8W7S5W3CalmSW3CalmS3S5CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmSW3SW3W3NW8NW9NW83SW11SW9SW9SW12
G17
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2 days agoNW6NW4NW8W7W6W7W5W5W7W10W146SW5CalmNW8E7SE4SW7S3SW5SW4SW4W5W3

Tide / Current Tables for Withlacoochee River entrance, Florida
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Withlacoochee River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:24 AM EDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:03 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:55 PM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.41.21.31.522.52.82.92.92.72.42.11.81.51.31.21.41.622.22.42.42.2

Tide / Current Tables for Florida Power, Florida
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Florida Power
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:59 AM EDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:53 AM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:30 PM EDT     1.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:05 PM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.31.21.31.82.32.93.23.43.232.62.11.71.41.21.21.51.92.32.62.72.72.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.