Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Otter Creek, FL

NEAR TERM
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

High pressure will remain over the region tonight and gradually move to the east on Monday. Aloft, cirrus-level moisture will begin to move into the region tonight, especially northwest of FL Big Bend.
This may complicate the overnight temperature forecast, with thicker cirrus moving over portions of Eastern FL Panhandle, SE Alabama, and Southwest GA at times. But the transient nature of the cirrus, along with a dry air mass and light winds, should contribute to another night of decent longwave "radiational" cooling. The latest NBM was blended with some of the colder MOS guidance for, lows mainly in the middle to upper 30s, except some lower 30s in the colder locals of the FL Big Bend and along/northwest of the Flint River Valley.

Clouds will continue to increase on Sunday, but the weather will remain dry, with highs in the middle and upper 60s.

SHORT AND LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

A quick moving and deamplifying shortwave looks to move across eastern CONUS from the central Plains to the Northeast Sunday night into Monday. It'll do this as it rides over the top of an upper- level ridge who's associated surface high pressure will be over the western Atlantic. The two of these features acting together will allow southerly flow to pull moisture-rich air poleward. PWATs look to increase to around 1 to 1.5 inches across the eastern half of the area and around 1.5 to 1.9 across the western half. This narrow corridor will allow for the region to receive a good amount of precip as forcing quickly heads north.

This moisture-rich air though gets hung up across the region as the shortwave departs. An approaching deep trough coming off the rocky mountains looks to push this moisture further north before it plows through the region on Wednesday. As PWATs remain elevated and instability increases, primarily along the FL Panhandle and SE Alabama, we could see increased chances for thunderstorms there with decreasing chances to the east. With an LLJ around 30 kts some isolated organized convection could be possible Tuesday afternoon ahead of the trough. There is currently a slight risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday afternoon across the western half of the area.

Expect temps to warm up ahead of the trough as warm southerly flow dominates. High temps are expected to be in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s. Post-frontal Wednesday through Friday, expect daytime highs to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Calm winds overnight with a broken deck of high cirrus moving in from the west during the overnight hours affecting the DHN and ABY terminals into the day tomorrow. High clouds will cover the region by tomorrow afternoon but, expected to remain VFR through the end of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 225 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Easterly winds turn southerly by Monday and may lead to the formation of some sea fog in Apalachee Bay early next week. Another cold front is forecast to sweep through Wednesday and turn winds out of the north-northwest and increase to advisory level conditions behind the front.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 225 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Minimum afternoon RH values on Sunday are forecast in the upper 20s to lower 30s, which would be an improvement compared to those on Saturday. The air mass moistens early next week as much needed rain overspreads much of the region northwest of FL Big Bend. Widespread low dispersions are expected on Sunday with high pressure overhead.
Dispersions will slowly improve on Monday to modest levels by the early afternoon, with some pockets of low values still possible.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 225 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

A wet pattern unfolds beginning Monday when a frontal boundary orients itself from SW to NE across the Lower MS/TN Valley. This stagnating front will serve as focus for multiple rounds of rainfall (heavy at times) through Wednesday. The front's exact position will play a key role on where the heaviest rain sets up.
Dry weather returns the second half of the work week.

Most models currently favor greater rain over parts of the FL Panhandle, SE AL, and SW GA, particularly the Wiregrass Region.
Notably aggressive solutions are the NAM & ECMWF/ECENS. The 6Z deterministic Euro shows an extensive swath of 4-6" (i.e., reasonable worst case) along a DeFuniak Springs to Albany line while its ensemble counterpart depicts 2-4". By contrast, the 12Z GFS/GEFS are passive with 1 to nearly 2" NW of Tallahassee. Probabilistic Precipitation Portal guidance gives a 25-60% chance (increases from SE to NW) of at least 1" Monday-Tuesday over SE AL & the western FL Panhandle. Our official forecast storm-total amounts are 1-3+ inches along/NW of a Ocilla-Chattahoochee-Mexico Beach line. Locations elsewhere Values are subject to change as the event draws near.

Given all the aforementioned talking points, the threat for nuisance and/or flash flooding exists the first half of next week. However, since much of the Tri-State area outside of the I-75 corridor is experiencing abnormally dry to "low-end" drought conditions, the upcoming rain should prove more beneficial than harmful. This morning's Flash Flood Guidance implies ~2-4" in 1-3 hrs are required to induce flooding. Looking at area rivers, there are no immediate flooding concerns. Any near-future riverine issues will be contingent on where the axes of heaviest precipitation falls.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 36 68 51 72 / 0 0 0 20 Panama City 44 69 57 74 / 0 0 10 40 Dothan 38 66 51 71 / 0 0 10 60 Albany 34 66 48 70 / 0 0 0 40 Valdosta 36 69 50 75 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 33 71 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 46 67 59 72 / 0 0 0 20

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.