Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Otter Creek, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 828 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Forecast snowfall accumulations has expanded further south and west. Geneva County in Alabama, Washington and Holmes counties in Florida have been added to the Winter Weather Advisory. Further updates are possible when the full forecast package comes out later tonight.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 104 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Cold front currently located over southeast Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Winds behind the front of have turned northerly while southerly flow remains ahead of the front. Light rain and showers have developed in the Florida panhandle and Gulf waters early this afternoon. Overall, light showers will favor the Florida counties ahead of the front. The cold front will continue a slow progression east or nearly stalling for a little bit through the central portions of the service area. Further upstream, shortwave trough is moving through the flow in the central and southern Plains. Back in that region, surface temperatures in the 20s and 30s and dewpoints in the single digits.

Tonight, that shortwave trough makes a run towards and through the the area into Sunday. In addition to favorable jet dynamics and large scale lift, isentropic lift will aid in an increase in rain through southern Alabama/Florida panhandle and spreading east with time beginning later tonight and through the overnight hours. As the shortwave moves into the region, it will be accompanied by the anticipated colder air. Temperatures fall into the upper 30s in southeast Alabama and the western Florida panhandle after midnight and soundings become supportive of a wintry mix in the predawn hours. Here, a more narrow opportunity for a mix as compared to points east as rain is moving east. Further east into southwest Georgia, there is an opportunity for a little longer mix window and thus a higher probability of some accumulations. Thus, this is where the winter weather advisory is located. I did add a few counties from the previous shift, a little further west and south, adding Houston and Jackson counties, as well as Seminole and Decatur through Mitchell east to Berrien counties.

Accumulation expectations remain on the light side with minimal impacts, generally 1 inch or less. This accumulation should be relegated to grassy surfaces, elevated surfaces, and car/roof tops. High temperatures today will reach the upper 50s to mid 60s in the mix accumulation area and once the system passes by and precipitation quickly ends through early Sunday afternoon, clearing skies, sunny skies returning, and highs reaching the mid 40s, any accumulation should melt rather quickly.

Overall, confidence continues to increase on a brief transition from rain to a rain/snow mix as colder air filters in from the northwest while the area of rain transitions east. Highest confidence for accumulations are within the advisory area with perhaps a further extension this evening further west into the Florida panhandle or a few more Georgia counties if confidence increases. Would not be surprised to see a few wet flakes mix in from Gadsden/Leon counties as the rain moves out but the higher confidence is points west and north.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 104 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A hard freeze is likely for most inland areas Monday morning with lows 23-27F. Low temperatures in some locations have warmed slightly above criteria for this model cycle and will hold off on issuing a freeze product at this time but do anticipate the possibility on the next shifts as confidence increases.

Beyond this immediate system, a reinforcing cold front will sweep through the area early Tuesday. High pressure is quickly on its heels, diving into the southeast US later Tuesday then off the Atlantic coast Wednesday. The cool northerly flow will clock east, moderating our temperatures back into the mid 60s for highs late next work week. A weak low pressure system appears to bring the next chance for rain, though probs are low, into Thursday and early Friday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Light scattered rain showers will continue through the evening and overnight hours. At around 10-12z tomorrow morning, the rain will begin mixing and transitioning into light snow. This will mainly impact our northern terminals (DHN and ABY). However, all terminals may see a transition around this time, DHN and ABY can see accumulations. Cigs and Vsbys will be reduced to MVFR and IFR as the rain and snow is falling Sunday morning. Winds may be gusting up to 20 kts during the rain/snow mix for all TAF sites.
Rain and snow will clear out of the region during the afternoon, leaving clear skies by 18z for our western terminals, and continue clearing to the east by the end of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 104 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Cold front has entered our western waters with winds turning northerly throughout southern Alabama and buoy 42028. This front will slowly move east this afternoon and evening then gain momentum later tonight and Sunday. Strong post frontal northerly winds will envelope the Gulf waters with near gale force gusts, especially in offshore waters west of Apalachicola tonight into Sunday morning. Northerlies will slowly decrease from Sunday evening through late Monday, as a high pressure ridge expands out across the northern Gulf Coast. A reinforcing cold front Monday night will restrengthen the northerlies. High pressure moving off the North Carolina coast will cause winds to clock around easterly on Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 104 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A front will move south and stall out across the region later today and this evening. The front will accelerate across the rest of the region late tonight and Sunday morning, followed by gusty northwest winds. Many places will get a wetting rain of one-quarter inch or more. Locations north of I-10 could see a brief changeover to snow before precipitation ends later Sunday morning. A hard freeze is expected Monday morning. Cold and dry weather will continue through Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 104 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Rainfall amounts with this system today into Sunday will generally amount to around 0.25-0.75 inches with the higher amounts favoring east of Apalachicola and Flint rivers into the Florida Big Bend.
Once this system moves through, another cold front is on tap later this week. Amounts appear light with that system. Therefore, no flooding is expected over the next 7 days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 37 46 27 53 / 100 90 0 0 Panama City 35 48 32 55 / 100 70 0 0 Dothan 33 44 26 52 / 90 50 0 0 Albany 33 44 25 51 / 90 80 0 0 Valdosta 36 46 25 52 / 90 100 0 0 Cross City 41 53 26 56 / 70 90 0 0 Apalachicola 37 47 32 53 / 100 90 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM CST Sunday for FLZ009>011.

High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday for FLZ112-114-115.

GA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon EST Sunday for GAZ120>131-142>148-155-156.

AL...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM CST Sunday for ALZ067>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for GMZ730-755-765- 775.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ751-752-770- 772.