Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Horseshoe Beach, FL

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Monday night)
Issued at 149 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

This beneficial rain that we have been receiving will continue through the rest of today. The heavier showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will be possible in the extreme SE Big Bend this afternoon and evening. Any stronger storms are expected to remain over the Gulf. An expected lull will take place overnight before another round of showers moves into the region before daybreak. There is potential for fog to develop Monday morning in the Big Bend region. Soon after sunrise, the cold front is expected to make its way through, pushing out the remaining showers and backing the winds to northerly. It will be breezy through the day with gusts up to 20- 25 mph, moreso in our western counties in the afternoon. The gusts are expected to calm down after sunset. Temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 50s in our AL and GA counties, and mid to upper 60s for our FL counties; warmest temps in the SE FL Big Bend. Monday night, we can expect temperatures to fall into the mid and upper 30s for most of the region, with low 40s in the SE Big Bend. Light winds and clearing skies Monday night will have wind chills in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Tuesday morning will be chilly with temps starting in the mid to upper 30s and low 40s in the SE Big Bend. Frost is likely to develop in our AL and GA counties. Temps will be struggling to make reach 60 degrees for much of the region Tuesday afternoon.
Tuesday night, we may see our first freeze since Thanksgiving with lows in the low 30s, with upper 30s along the coast. Given that we are expecting light winds, wind chills won't be too different from the actual temperatures, with values in the low 30s for much of the region. A gradual warmup is expected through the rest of the period, along with dry weather; highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with lows in the 40s and 50s. As we approach the weekend, a cold front is expected to move across the region. There is a chance for rain ahead of the front; thunderstorms do not look likely at this time due to lack of instability and limited moisture return ahead of the front. Colder air is expected behind the front, however the models and ensembles are not in agreement, with a large spread, as to how far south the cold air will extend.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Steady rain is coming to an end across the area this evening, but patches of light rain and mist will continue through the night until a cold front passes early Monday morning. In addition, patchy to areas of fog are expected at all terminals with the recent rains and light winds. Ceilings and visibilities will gradually improve through the day on Monday with occasionally gusty northwest winds.

MARINE
Issued at 149 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms over the waters today could make winds and seas a little rough in some places. Thunderstorms will also be possible today just offshore, leading to briefly higher winds and seas, along with the potential for waterspouts.
However, the real focus for this discussion is the cold frontal passage moving through the region on Monday. The front looks to begin its passage over the waters around daybreak. Behind the front, winds will increase from the north. Advisory level conditions are expected for our western waters where a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect. There is about a 40% chance for advisory level winds expanding further east towards the nearshore waters off of the Forgotten Coast by Monday evening. Winds and seas will lessen through the day Tuesday with tranquil boating conditions returning by Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 149 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Transport winds and mixing heights increase for Monday with winds being northerly at 15-20 mph and the heights at around 2700 feet in the afternoon. This will lead to moderate dispersions.
Transwinds decrease for Tuesday to being around 5-10 mph from the east. This will cause poor dispersion for Tuesday with pockets of low dispersions. Winds increase again for Wednesday from the southwest, increasing the dispersion index to possible high dispersions for our inland districts along I-10 and west of I-75.
MinRH values through this period are above critical and the recent rains should limit any other fire weather concerns.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 149 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Additional rainfall today through tonight could total up to 2", with isolated higher amounts possible in the SE Big Bend. Heavy rainfall is possible today, which could lead to nuisance flooding in urban and low-lying areas. Riverine flooding is not expected.
Following a cold front on Monday, dry weather is expected through the rest of the work week. Drought conditions following this rain event will likely show improvement but, it is too soon to say how much. The next drought monitor update will be available on Thursday December 11. The latest US Drought Monitor (Dec 4) has much of the region in Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought; the only change in the last week is a 1-category improvement from Extreme (D3) to Severe (D2) in portions of Coffee, Dale, and Henry counties.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 52 62 40 59 / 60 20 0 0 Panama City 52 63 41 60 / 30 10 0 0 Dothan 48 58 35 55 / 50 0 0 0 Albany 47 59 36 55 / 40 20 0 0 Valdosta 49 61 38 57 / 60 20 0 0 Cross City 54 68 41 63 / 80 10 0 0 Apalachicola 55 64 44 59 / 70 10 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EST tonight for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday night for GMZ751-752-770-772.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ755-775.