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GMZ775 Expires:202312020930;;738010 Fzus52 Ktae 020001 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida big bend and eastern panhandle national weather service tallahassee fl 701 pm est Fri dec 1 2023
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz750-752-755-770-772-775-020930- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 701 pm est Fri dec 1 2023 /601 pm cst Fri dec 1 2023/
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Overnight..Southeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 20 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..North winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 701 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis..
an area of rain and a few Thunderstorms moving across the coastal waters is expected to contribute to a period of stronger winds around 20 knots with higher gusts overnight. Thus, a small craft advisory has been issued for most of the coastal waters through mid morning Saturday. Otherwise, several showers and Thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, some of which may produce gusty winds and waterspouts. The storm system and associated cold front is slated to swing through Sunday night into Monday, turning winds to the northwest to north much of next week. Additionally, a bit of sea fog is possible in apalachee bay later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

FXUS62 KTAE 020103 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 803 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE

UPDATE
Issued at 759 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

The main change to the overnight hours was to issue a Small Craft Advisory as stronger winds have developed along the panhandle coast and just offshore in association with a large area of rain and embedded thunderstorms well offshore. Case in point, the 00z KPAM METAR showed a sustained wind of 23 knots with gusts to 32 knots. The recent HRRR runs as well as the 18z GFS show these stronger winds persisting offshore through the night, which was the justification used to issue the Small Craft Advisory.

Otherwise, no changes were made to the Flood Watch area. There is still uncertainty with where the heaviest rain will develop, i.e.
further north in southeast Alabama, or pinned along the coast. The complex of storms currently located just offshore of Louisiana will be Saturday's weather. Heavier rain will likely start moving into the Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama from the west as we get closer to sunrise.

NEAR TERM
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Initial wave of showers and thunderstorms straddling a warm front along the AL/FL border should diminish early this evening. A High Shear Low CAPE (HSLC) environment exists with 40 kts of Bulk Shear and SB CAPE up to 500 J/kg. The EOX/EVX profilers, when a backed southeast surface wind is taken into account, are showing SRH (0-1 km) of 200-300 units. With LCLs AOB 500 meters, this is supportive of a brief tornado threat, in addition to strong gusty winds. SPC shows a Marginal risk of severe weather for portions of Southeast AL and the Western FL Panhandle through the overnight hours. While additional strong storms cannot be ruled out beyond this evening into the overnight hours with strong speed and directional shear, greater instability would be needed, with the best chance closer to the FL Panhandle coast.

Otherwise, attention turns to increasing heavy rainfall threat, especially late tonight into Saturday. Anomalously moist air mass overspreads the region on the nose of a 40 knot low-level jet, with PWAT increasing to around 2.0 inches, which is near the max of the TAE Sounding Climatology. Expect multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with the potential for severe weather as well. There is uncertainty regarding the axis of heaviest rainfall, i.e, closer to the gulf coast across the FL Panhandle or extending into SE Alabama. This will be dependent on boundaries which are yet to be resolved. Regardless, there is the potential for excessive rainfall leading to flooding across this area, including the far western FL Big Bend, where a Flood Watch is now in effect thru Sunday evening.

There is the potential for a low end severe weather threat on Saturday. Another High Shear Low CAPE (HSLC) environment looks to take shape. In particular, guidance indicates a somewhat favorable overlap of instability and low-level SRH in portions of the FL Panhandle into SE Alabama, where storms will have to be watched closely for a brief tornado and isolated damaging wind gusts.

Given flooding and severe weather threats on Saturday, especially across portions of Southeast Alabama into the FL Panhandle, those with outdoor events should be weather aware of the latest forecast, have multiple ways to receive warnings, and adjust your plans as necessary.

Overnight lows will remain steady or slowly fall into the low and mid-60s. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid-70s. An increasingly humid air mass will overspread the region with dew points rising into the mid-60s to around 70.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

A line of showers and a few thunderstorms remains possible Saturday night into Sunday morning as the cold front finally begins to push through the Southeast. Ample moisture remains available for this line with precipitable water values (PWATs) forecast to remain near or slightly above the 90th percentile, or 1.5" to 1.7", for early December. So there could be some torrential downpours embedded within the line as it moves from west to east across the region.
With regards to severe potential, there is enough support with the 850mb jet still overhead, 0-3km Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) of 150- 200m2/s2, and Mid-Level CAPE (MLCAPE) of generally less than 500 J/kg. So an isolated damaging wind gust cannot be totally ruled out Saturday night into Sunday.

Outside of the showers and storms in the forecast, fog may be a concern Saturday night for portions of the Florida Big Bend and along the I-75 corridor in Georgia. Ensemble guidance is showing a 60 to 80 percent chance for visibility less than 1 mile. So that's something to be monitored going forward.

As the line pushes through during the day Sunday, a lingering shower or two remains possible before the cold front fully clears the region Sunday night.

Temperatures are expected to go from the middle to upper 60s Friday night to the lower to middle 70s Sunday afternoon. The cold front then swings through and allows lows to drop into the lower to middle 50s Sunday night.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

The long term period will feature the passage of a couple of cold fronts, one Monday and another Wednesday, that will keep the period near to slightly below normal for the middle of next week. Not much, if any, rain is expected with either of the frontal passages.

Daytime highs are forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday, lower to middle 60s Tuesday, and upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows also show a similar trend with lower to middle 40s Monday and Tuesday night before dipping into the middle to upper 30s Wednesday and Thursday nights.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 759 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Conditions will gradually deteoriate through the period as ceilings lower and rain increases ahead of an approaching cold front. The worst conditions are expected at ECP and DHN with IFR to LIFR lasting through much of the period and rain increasing in intensity on Saturday. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will gradually transition to IFR with the chance of rain also increasing during the day on Saturday. Some low-level wind shear also cannot be ruled out tonight, but confidence remains too low to include explicitly at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 759 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

An area of rain and a few thunderstorms moving across the coastal waters is expected to contribute to a period of stronger winds around 20 knots with higher gusts overnight. Thus, a small craft advisory has been issued for most of the coastal waters through mid morning Saturday.

Otherwise, several showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, some of which may produce gusty winds and waterspouts.
The storm system and associated cold front is slated to swing through Sunday night into Monday, turning winds to the northwest to north much of next week. Additionally, a bit of sea fog is possible in Apalachee Bay later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Soaking rains are expected on Saturday and may linger into Sunday, especially across portions of Southeast Alabama and the Western FL Panhandle, where flooding is possible. Pockets of low dispersions are likely both days. A cold frontal passage on Sunday will usher in a drier air mass for Monday, with brisk westerly transport winds and moderate dispersions.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

A Flood Watch is now in effect until 00Z Monday (7PM EST/6PM CST Sunday) for the Florida Panhandle, western Florida Big Bend, and Southeast Alabama. This is due to the potential for multiple rounds of torrential rainfall through the weekend. Hi-res model guidance continues to paint a very wet picture, especially in the Florida Panhandle, for later tonight into early Saturday morning. Additional rain is possible later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and again Sunday. By the time all is said and done, the most likely totals are generally forecast to be between 3" to 6" for areas west of the Apalachicola River; locally higher amounts of 6"+ are possible, especially in parts of Walton, Bay, and Washington Counties. Additionally, rain rates of 3"/hr to 4"/hr are possible, which could lead to localized flooding, especially in urban, low- lying, and poor drainage areas. Outside of the Flood Watch, rainfall totals are generally expected to be between 1" to 3", with lower amounts of less than 1" forecast for the southeastern FL Big Bend.

It's worth noting that with most of the plants having gone dormant, runoff into area waterways will be more than usual. This could cause a faster than usual response with respect to not only flash flood potential, but also riverine flooding potential. With widespread rainfall totals in the 3" to 6" range across the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, area rivers will be monitored in the coming days for any move into Action Stage, maybe even Minor Flood Stage.
Some rivers to monitor include the Choctawhatchee River, Pea River, and Apalachicola River, among others.

NOTE: If the area of heavier rain falls more across Southeastern Alabama, or the northern Florida Panhandle, then the riverine response would be greater than if the heaviest rain fell along the immediate coast.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 63 73 66 74 / 60 50 80 70 Panama City 66 74 66 73 / 90 70 80 70 Dothan 64 71 64 71 / 90 90 80 60 Albany 63 71 65 72 / 70 80 80 70 Valdosta 61 74 67 75 / 40 40 70 70 Cross City 62 78 67 77 / 20 10 60 60 Apalachicola 67 73 66 72 / 60 60 80 70

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for FLZ007>016-026-108-112- 114.

High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...None.
AL...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Saturday for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.

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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:42 AM EST     3.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:34 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:07 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:59 PM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:56 PM EST     1.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pepperfish Keys, Florida, Tide feet

Fishermans Rest
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:47 AM EST     3.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:40 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:08 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:05 PM EST     2.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:02 PM EST     1.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fishermans Rest, Florida, Tide feet

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