Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Horseshoe Beach, FL

NEAR TERM
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

Clouds spread across the region tonight in advance of our next storm system. This storm system moves along the northern Gulf coast and will bring us another dose of rain late tonight into Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall totals on the order of 1" to 1.5" are in the forecast for most of the region. Some of the hi-res guidance suggests a stripe of heavier rainfall amounts across Florida into southern Georgia, which could result in more than 2" of rain by the time all is said and done. Fortunately, the low responsible for the rain is passing far enough to the south that we'll remain on the cool and stable side, i.e. no severe weather is in the forecast. On the flip side, Wednesday is going to be damp and chilly with temperatures stuck in the 40s and 50s while it's raining. A little bit of late-day sunshine may allow temperatures to sneak closer to 60, especially in southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but there's only a 20% chance of that happening tomorrow afternoon.

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 353 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

A few light showers may be lingering Wednesday night in the wake of Wednesday's cold front, but no additional significant rainfall accumulation is expected. A return to winter is expected in the wake of this front, with lows returning to the low to mid 20s for much of the area by Thursday night with minimum wind chills in the 11 to 20 degree range. A cold weather advisory will likely be needed, and any early plant growth could be impacted by the freezing temperatures.
High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will struggle to get out of the 40s and 50s despite mostly sunny skies.

A gradual warming trend is expected over the weekend and into next week, with highs climbing back to the 70s on Tuesday. The next chance for rain comes over the weekend as a shortwave passes overhead. Impactful weather is not expected with this system, but we'll continue to keep an eye on it in the meantime.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025

VFR conditions continue for now, but will degrade over the next few hours. SHRA is now reaching the ground at ECP, and will spread to the other terminals from SW to NE through the night. Cigs will fall near daybreak to IFR and LIFR at all sites with a steady RA through about 18z. Even after the RA ends, a few light showers will remain possible through the rest of the afternoon. Cigs will be very slow to rise, only return to MVFR by the end of the TAF period for ECP, DHN, and ABY, while remaining IFR at TLH and VLD.

MARINE
Issued at 807 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

Offshore buoys are reporting sustained easterly winds 12-14 kts with 2-ft seas and a dominant period of 4 seconds at Buoy 42036 (West Tampa) this evening. Satellite and radar also show maritime convection moving in from the west to SW ahead of a developing area of low pressure off the TX coast.

CWF Synopsis: Easterly winds will increase tonight into Wednesday as an area of low pressure moves across the northern Gulf. Winds turn more northerly and reach advisory level over the western waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. Seas will reach 3 to 5 feet. Rain overspreads the marine area tonight through Wednesday with a few thunderstorms possible. Winds and seas slowly subside through the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 353 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

Fire weather concerns remain low the next several days. A cold front moving through the region Wednesday will bring 0.5" to 1.5" of rain.
Drier and colder conditions move in late Wednesday afternoon and linger through the rest of the week. Higher dispersions return Thursday and Friday, but recent rain should keep fire weather concerns low.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 353 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

A steady rain will overspread the area late tonight into Wednesday. While most of the rain will be moderate, some localized pockets of heavier rain are possible. Rain totals will generally be around 0.75 to 1.25 inches, but localized totals of 2 to 2.5 inches are possible. But, this shouldn't result in flooding concerns outside of ponding in poor drainage spots and will be a beneficial rain for most. Another round of light showers is possible over the weekend.

The Apalachicola River near Blountstown remains in minor flood, but should fall below flood stage Wednesday morning. Parts of the Flint, Chattahoochee, Ochlockonee, and Withlacoochee Rivers are in or are forecast to reach action stage, but no additional river flooding is expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 57 39 51 27 / 100 20 0 0 Panama City 59 35 50 28 / 100 10 0 0 Dothan 54 30 46 23 / 90 20 0 0 Albany 52 34 47 23 / 90 20 0 0 Valdosta 57 40 51 27 / 100 20 0 0 Cross City 63 43 58 28 / 90 20 0 0 Apalachicola 60 39 51 31 / 100 10 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ750-752-770-772.