Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Horseshoe Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 8:15PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 11:54 AM EDT (15:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 10:24AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ775 Expires:201908210315;;519334 Fzus52 Ktae 201439 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 1039 Am Edt Tue Aug 20 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-210315- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1039 Am Edt Tue Aug 20 2019 /939 Am Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019/
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north early in the morning. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1039 Am Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis..Winds and seas will remain low through the period outside of Thunderstorms, which will peak in the late night and early morning hours.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horseshoe Beach, FL
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location: 29.2, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 201438
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1038 am edt Tue aug 20 2019

Update
A few minor tweaks were made to pops and temps this morning, but
the overall forecast for today remains unchanged from earlier this
morning.

Prev discussion [615 am edt]
Near term [through today]
A weak upper level trough axis will continue to bisect the area
today from southwest to northeast. The axis of deepest moisture is
expected to reside across the western half of the area today with
precipitable water values around 2 inches. Thus, the greatest
coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the florida
panhandle and southeast alabama this afternoon with pops around 60
percent. Elsewhere, rain chances are expected to be in the 40-50
percent range. High temperatures will generally range from the
middle 80s to lower 90s.

Short term [tonight through Thursday]
The wet pattern will continue through the rest of the week. The
upper level trough PV anomaly will continue to meander over the
southeastern conus, as will the axis of deep moisture. At the lower
levels, the area will remain on the western fringe of a ridge of
high pressure. In terms of forcing, the main factor will be the
seabreeze both Wednesday and Thursday. On Wednesday, the 1000-700 mb
flow will be light and from the southeast, rendering the highest
chances for storms in the coastline convergence zone along the
apalachicola river. On Thursday, the 1000-700 mb flow will be more
south southwesterly, with the highest chances in the fl panhandle
and southeast al. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in
the low 70s.

Long term [Thursday night through Tuesday]
The diurnal seabreeze driven convection will continue into next week
with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms peaking inland each
afternoon and offshore each morning. The highest coverage of storms
will be Sunday and Monday when rich moisture returns to the area.

Highs will continue to be mostly in the low 90s and lows mostly in
the low 70s.

Aviation
[through 12z Wednesday] patchy low ceilings ranging from MVFR to
ifr will lift and becomeVFR this morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will spread across the area from south to north
through the day.VFR conditions are expected in the afternoon away
from storms.

Marine
Winds and seas will remain low through the period outside of
thunderstorms, which will peak in the late night and early morning
hours.

Fire weather
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
relative humidity values remaining above critical levels.

Hydrology
The steinhatchee river is continuing its broad peak in minor (almost
moderate) flood stage from the heavy rainfall this past weekend, as
is the fenholloway river. No additional flooding is forecast.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring around 1-2" of rain
to the area through Saturday. As we head into next week and deeper
moisture returns, there will be a higher chance for heavier
rainfall.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 90 74 93 73 92 30 20 40 10 40
panama city 87 75 89 76 88 40 10 40 20 40
dothan 87 71 92 72 91 60 20 40 10 50
albany 89 73 92 73 92 40 20 30 20 40
valdosta 90 73 91 73 92 30 20 40 20 40
cross city 90 73 90 73 91 50 30 30 20 30
apalachicola 87 76 88 77 87 30 10 30 20 30

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Harrigan
near term... Dvd
short term... Nguyen
long term... Nguyen
aviation... Dvd
marine... Nguyen
fire weather... Dvd
hydrology... Nguyen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 47 mi55 min E 8 G 9.9 82°F 1020.3 hPa (+0.4)73°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 49 mi55 min E 5.1 G 6 79°F 1020.4 hPa (+1.0)76°F
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 50 mi55 min ESE 9.9 G 11 82°F 1019.9 hPa (+0.0)75°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cross City Airport, FL54 mi80 minENE 510.00 miFair82°F75°F80%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCTY

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5CalmS5W5CalmW5CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmNE4E4E4
1 day agoS8S5S5W5SW9SW6S8S5CalmCalmSE3SE3CalmS4SW3S5S3CalmSE3SE4S5S4N3Calm
2 days agoSW5S4S3S5SE3NE3CalmW6SW12
G18
SW5SW3CalmSE4SE3SE3SE3SE5S9S7S3SE4S7SE6S9

Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida
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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:30 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:23 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:43 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.11.82.53.13.33.22.82.31.71.20.90.91.21.82.42.93.23.22.92.31.71.20.8

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:24 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:37 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.21.92.63.23.43.22.82.21.61.20.911.31.82.533.33.22.92.31.71.20.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.