Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Horseshoe Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 8:44PM Monday July 6, 2020 3:40 PM EDT (19:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:14PMMoonset 6:57AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ775 Expires:202007070300;;423788 Fzus52 Ktae 061936 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 336 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-070300- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 336 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020 /236 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 6 2020/
Small craft exercise caution..
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 336 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis.. Winds and seas will be at cautionary levels the next few days along with widespread showers and storms. The highest coverage of storms will be in the overnight hours. Winds will be predominately westerly around 15 knots with seas will be around 2 to 4 feet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horseshoe Beach, FL
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location: 29.2, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 061742 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 142 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

AVIATION. [Through 18Z Tuesday]

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to impact the sites today. Heavier showers may reduce VIS/CIG conditions temporarily. Hard to say when a shower will impact the terminals so handled mostly with -SHRA or VCSH. IFR or low MVFR conditions are possible once again tonight with a few showers and thunderstorms expected again Tuesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION [1043 AM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

The small area of low pressure that we have been tracking over the last day or so is actually nearing Albany GA as of 11AM CT. It is still fairly well defined on radar with an occasional lightning strike. The overall broad circulation will be the focus for continued showers and a few thunderstorms areawide. The 12Z sounding from the office showed PW values of 2.15 inches and guidance suggests PW values stay above 2 inches all day. Therefore, the highest threat will be moderate to heavy rainfall and an occasional thunderstorm although strong storms seem very unlikely. We will mostly have to worry about flooding and only in areas that see "bands" of showers move across one area. With southwest flow around 20-30 knots in the sounding, the individual showers will be moving quickly. Due to the showers and clouds, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

For tonight, a tropical airmass will continue to remain in place. Although shower coverage will decrease somewhat, a chance of showers is expected to continue across the entire area overnight. Some enhancement is possible late in the night across the coastal panhandle area as the flow turns more westerly with some weak upper level support. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM [Tuesday thru Wednesday].

A deep layer southwest flow will continue to advect high moisture content into the region through Tuesday, with Precipitable Water values in excess of 2.0 inches, around 2 Standard Deviations above normal. Several shortwave disturbances will aid in the generation of numerous showers and thunderstorms w/ embedded heavy downpours, highest chances outside of the southeast FL Big Bend where the Probability of Precipitation (PoP) will average around 80 pct.

As an extension of the subtropical ridge builds west into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, the deep layer flow becomes more westerly, with indications of a surface trough possibly setting up near the I-10 corridor. PoPs remain near 80 pct across much of the region, although these may need to be adjusted downward across portions of the Wiregrass into Peanut Country, dependent on where the surface trough sets up.

There are some flooding concerns through Wednesday, and these are addressed in the hydrology section at the end. Given the extensive cloudiness and precipitation coverage, high temperatures will be several degrees below normal both days, generally in the 80s. It will be breezy by summer standards across much of the area on both days as well, with southwest winds gusting up to 20 mph.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday].

A persistent mid-level trough and surface reflection will remain near the area through the period. PoPs will generally range 50 to 60 pct from Thursday through Saturday, then decreasing closer to climatology on Sunday and Monday. In the mid-levels, drier air and elevated northwest flow is progged to arrive on Friday and persist through early next week. This pattern would be more favorable for isolated severe thunderstorms.

High temperatures will increase into the lower to middle 90s. These values combined with the humidity will lead to the potential for heat indices greater than 105 degrees from Thursday through early next week.

MARINE.

Low pressure will exit the coastal waters today. Thereafter, a persistent trough of low pressure will remain nearby just to the north of the waters, while high pressure builds to the southwest. This will maintain elevated westerly winds through the period, up to 20 knots at times. Seas of 3 to 5 feet today will only subside 2 to 4 feet thereafter. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms through mid-week.

FIRE WEATHER.

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

HYDROLOGY.

Pockets of heavy rainfall are likely across the area today and mainly north of I-10 on Tuesday. An axis of heavy rainfall could also setup near the I-10 corridor on Wednesday. Much of the area is under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through Tuesday, when the bulk of the rainfall is expected to occur. Amounts of 2-3 inches are forecast, but localized amounts could be double. This could lead to poor drainage flooding of low lying areas and isolated flash flooding. Flash Flood Guidance is as low as 2"/hr north of I-10, where rainfall amounts have been above average recently. In terms of the rivers, we're watching the Ochlocknee at Thomasville, which is forecast to remain at action stage through at least mid-week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 73 87 73 90 73 / 50 80 20 80 30 Panama City 77 85 77 87 77 / 60 80 20 60 30 Dothan 72 84 71 87 72 / 50 90 40 80 20 Albany 73 85 73 87 74 / 60 90 40 80 20 Valdosta 72 88 72 90 73 / 50 90 30 80 30 Cross City 74 89 74 88 73 / 50 60 20 40 40 Apalachicola 77 87 77 86 77 / 50 60 20 50 30

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . LN SHORT TERM . LF LONG TERM . LF AVIATION . LN MARINE . LF FIRE WEATHER . DVD HYDROLOGY . LF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 47 mi41 min SW 18 G 20 80°F 1015.7 hPa (-1.0)76°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 49 mi41 min W 9.9 G 12 76°F 1017.4 hPa (-0.0)74°F
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 50 mi41 min WSW 9.9 G 11 80°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.0)71°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cross City Airport, FL54 mi46 minS 910.00 miFair83°F76°F79%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCTY

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW6SW9S4S4SW7CalmCalmS4SE4SE4SE5SE5CalmS6SE3SE7S5SE3W9
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1 day agoCalmNE4E8SE4CalmCalmNE3NE3SE3SE3S4SE3SE3CalmE3S4SE3CalmW4S5S9S8SW8SW9
2 days agoSW3CalmSW8NW3N4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6E8N4N4NE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida
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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:59 AM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:07 AM EDT     1.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:56 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:25 PM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.42.32.832.92.52.11.71.61.72.12.63.23.63.83.63.12.41.50.6-0-0.4-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:53 AM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:01 AM EDT     1.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:50 PM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:19 PM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.52.42.93.12.92.521.71.61.72.12.73.33.73.83.63.12.31.40.6-0.1-0.4-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.