Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Horseshoe Beach, FL

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Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:40PM Friday July 19, 2019 12:34 AM EDT (04:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:42PMMoonset 8:07AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ775 Expires:201907190830;;276842 Fzus52 Ktae 190032 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 832 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-190830- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 832 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019 /732 Pm Cdt Thu Jul 18 2019/
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 832 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis.. West winds of 5 to 10 knots will prevail with seas 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms expected each day. Winds and seas expected to increase late Monday with the approach of a front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horseshoe Beach, FL
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location: 29.2, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 190029
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
829 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Update
Minor tweaks to the pops over the next 2 hours given current radar
trends. By 03z (11 pm), everything should dissipate and a quiet,
warm night will be on tap with lows in the mid-upper 70s.

Prev discussion [716 pm edt]
Near term [through tonight]
A combination of mid-level shortwave energy and lee effects has
resulted in a surface trough down the eastern seaboard through the
tri-state region. This trough and the big bend seabreeze have forced
convection across the eastern 2 3 of the region, and isolated storms
elsewhere. While there are likely to be strong storms with gusty sub-
severe level winds, the severe threat will remain isolated.

Convection should come to an end region-wide between 00-03z.

Short term [Friday through Saturday night]
Despite the presence of a ridge aloft, moisture is expected to
advect into our area thanks to an upper shortwave to the northwest.

Convection will initiate offshore and in our northern counties early
in the day, with MAX pop 50-70% increasing south to north in the
afternoon. Saturday storms will also initiate offshore, but progress
inland and to the west into the afternoon with MAX pop 50-60%. Pw
values will be above 2 inches both days, so locally heavy rainfall
during thunderstorms is possible.

Long term [Sunday through Thursday]
Going into Sunday, ridging will build slightly from the east,
introducing some drier air into the region. Highest rain chances on
Sunday will be 50-60% and focused to the west. An amplifying upper
trough will bring a front in from the northwest and stall to our
east. Pops will be elevated from Monday through the rest of the
period as a result, with highest rain chances (50-70%) on Tuesday.

The persistent showers and thunderstorms with pw > 2 inches may
raise flooding concerns. Shear and instability values are also worth
watching as this system draws closer.

Aviation
[through 00z Saturday]
tsra near dhn and aby this evening have moved on, but may linger
near these sites for another hour.VFR conditions should prevail
through the TAF period outside of scattered tsra Friday afternoon.

Winds will predominantly be from the west or southwest.

Marine
West winds of 5 to 10 knots will prevail with seas 1 foot. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Winds and seas expected
to increase late Monday with the approach of a front.

Fire weather
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
relative humidity values remaining above critical levels.

Hydrology
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may cause localized flooding
through the weekend. With a front expected to stall in the region
next week, persistent storms with high rain rates could cause
isolated flash flooding, but river flooding is not expected at this
time.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 73 93 73 92 73 10 50 20 50 20
panama city 79 89 76 88 77 0 40 30 50 20
dothan 74 91 73 91 73 20 70 20 60 20
albany 75 92 74 93 75 20 60 30 50 20
valdosta 73 93 72 93 73 10 50 20 50 20
cross city 75 90 74 92 75 10 40 20 30 10
apalachicola 78 89 76 88 76 10 30 20 50 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Nguyen
near term... Harrigan
short term... Skeen
long term... Skeen
aviation... Nguyen
marine... Skeen
fire weather... Dvd
hydrology... Skeen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 47 mi34 min W 5.1 G 6 85°F 1018.3 hPa (+0.0)77°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 49 mi34 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 82°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.4)77°F
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 50 mi34 min S 1.9 G 1.9 84°F 1018.5 hPa (+0.0)76°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cross City Airport, FL54 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair78°F77°F97%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4SE3S4SW6W11S7S3W8SW5SW6W7W5W3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmW3SW4W15
G19
E4NE3NE3NE3CalmE4CalmS3S4SE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmNW4CalmN3W11W9W9N6NE4CalmCalmSE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida
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Pepperfish Keys
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Fri -- 04:29 AM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:58 AM EDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:44 PM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:54 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.122.733.12.82.31.81.41.31.51.92.53.13.53.63.32.82.11.30.60.20

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:23 AM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:52 AM EDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:38 PM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:48 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.22.12.73.13.12.72.21.81.41.31.522.63.23.53.63.32.821.20.60.10

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.