Holly Hill, FL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holly Hill, FL

June 15, 2024 12:45 PM EDT (16:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM
Moonrise 1:42 PM   Moonset 1:06 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 1009 Am Edt Sat Jun 15 2024

Rest of today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast late. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon.

Tonight - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: east 1 foot at 7 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.

Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Sunday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 5 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.

Monday - East winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 6 seconds and east 1 foot at 12 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.

Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: east 5 feet at 6 seconds and east 1 foot at 12 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.

Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024

Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.

Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Hill, FL
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Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 151443 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1039 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

New UPDATE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

UPDATE
Issued at 1039 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Current local radar imagery shows dry conditions over east central Florida with scattered showers and isolated lightning storms along the southwest coast of Florida moving northeast. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows a weak boundary located across east central and southern Florida with higher moisture to the south of the boundary (PWATs ~ 2-2.4"). Current temperatures are in the low to upper 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Scattered showers (PoPs ~ 30-60%) and lightning storms are forecast to develop into this afternoon as forcing increases with interactions between the sea breeze and outflow from storms to the west-southwest. Light and variable winds this morning are forecast to increase into the afternoon at 5-10mph generally from the southwest well inland and from the east-southeast near the coast. Weak wind fields will result in slow moving storms with a minor flooding potential (1-3" locally in 60 to 90mins), mainly over areas that have received recent heavy rainfall. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists over most of east central Florida for this reason. Isolated lightning storms will also be capable of wind gusts to 30-40mph and occasional to frequent lightning strikes. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s with heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s are forecast under party to mostly cloudy skies.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Current...KMLB 88D shows mostly dry conditions over land across ECFL and ISOLD shower activity over the local coastal waters. The pressure gradient is relatively weak as winds range from L/V to calm. Humid conditions with temperatures/dewpoints in the 70s. For clouds, just a few low clouds speckled in observations, with satellite imagery showing a BKN/OVC layer of high cloudiness near Orlando southward. North of Orlando there are fewer overall clouds and will monitor for some early morning shallow, patchy fog here, but confidence is low.

Today-Tonight...A weak pressure pattern continues across the area.
The ECSB will develop again today and move inland, quicker across the north as winds veer onshore behind it. Ample moisture will exist along with daytime heating and boundary interactions to spark SCT, mainly afternoon-evening showers and lightning storms.
Activity will diminish into mid-late evening. Steering flow aloft is light so expect slow-moving convection. Primary convective threats will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 30-40 mph locally, and heavy downpours which could cause minor flooding, especially for areas that may have recently received heavy rainfall and/or from repeated rounds. Max temps in the M-U80s with near 90F to L90s in play across and north of I-4.
Peak heat indices well into the 90s and L100s possible near/north of a central Osceola-Melbourne line. Overnight mins mainly in the 70s with conditions humid.

Sun-Sun Night...Onshore flow becomes deeper across the area as weak high pressure slides southward across the Eastern Seaboard and southeast U.S. Light onshore flow areawide. ISOLD-SCT convection along the coast during the morning/early afternoon, with SCT showers/lightning storms favoring interior reaches in the mid-late afternoon and early evening. Mainly U80s for highs, except L90s for N/W of I-4. Overnight lows remaining in the 70s.

Mon-Fri...Stout mid-level ridge across the mid Atlc/southeast U.S.
extending into the FL peninsula will strengthen thru Tue night along the Eastern Seaboard, but is undercut Wed-Fri by some westward moving mid-level impulses. Temperatures warm aloft, as well, -4.0C to -5.5C. Plentiful PWAT values near 2 inches on Mon, then some overall drier air moves in through mid-week before a return to more moist conditions Thu-Fri. The deep onshore flow continues thru the period and along with the warm temperatures aloft may at best provide for ISOLD lightning chances, especially over land. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft Wed-Fri, along with an influx of moisture may be enough to promote SCT wording for thunder during this timeframe. Showers will remain in the SCT category with perhaps NMRS showers Thu-Fri.

With the persistent onshore flow at least into Wed, we will likely see greatest precip chances along the coast overnight/morning-early afternoon hours, with higher afternoon- evening convective chances across the interior. By Wed night thru Fri, medium range models suggest higher PoPs areawide due to the previously mentioned energy/cooler temps aloft and increased moisture. The pressure gradient begins to tighten next week and we may see some breezy onshore conditions each day, perhaps remaining elevated along the coast during the evening/overnight periods. This will create additional convergence along the coast and the latter part of this period, we may have to watch for some pockets of heavy low-topped showery precip, especially along the coast, should this scenario play out. Have undercut the NBM's high-PoP bias in the extended for now.

Thanks in part to the onshore flow, temperatures will be seasonable through the period, with afternoon highs in the U80s to L90s (interior), and overnight lows remaining mild in the 70s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Some models continue to show possible MVFR conditions developing this morning, especially along the coast, but confidence remains too low that this will occur. Thus, have kept this out of TAF for now, but will continue to monitor and amend if necessary. Light and variable winds will increase to 5-10 KT by late morning and become E/SE from ISM- MCO- SFB- LEE- DAB- TIX, and W/SW from MLB- VRB- FPR- SUA. SCT/NUM SHRA and ISM/SCT TSRA in the afternoon. Have included VCTS for all sites starting at 18/19Z. Have included TEMPOs for MCO-LEE-TIX-MLB (where the greatest potential for convection to occur this afternoon) for TSRA starting at 19/20Z.
Timing and coverage remains too uncertain at the other sites to include TEMPOs at this time. Activity will dissipate or move away from the local area shortly after sunset. Winds will become light and variable once again overnight Saturday, with winds becoming onshore by mid morning on Sunday.

MARINE
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Today-Tonight...Weak pressure gradient over the area with L/V morning winds, remaining mostly light (under 10 kts) and variable over the open Atlc and transitioning onshore near the coast with sea breeze formation. An offshore wind component develops again this evening and overnight, mainly AOB 10 kts. Seas up to 2 ft near shore and 2-3 ft offshore.

Sun-Wed...An onshore wind component will develop on Sun continuing into next week while getting deeper/stronger. Wind speeds increasing 8-13 kts on Sun, 11-16 kts Sun night, and we may be looking at 15-20 kts Mon-Wed as the pgrad tightens. Seas remain 2-3 ft into Sun evening, 3-4 ft Sun night, 4-5 ft Mon-early Tue, 4-6 ft Tue aftn-Wed night. ISOLD-SCT convection thru Sun with SCT showery precip into Wed, possibly ramping up to likely Wed night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 74 89 76 / 30 10 20 20 MCO 90 74 89 75 / 60 20 40 10 MLB 88 74 88 77 / 60 20 40 30 VRB 88 73 88 76 / 60 20 30 20 LEE 93 76 92 75 / 50 10 40 10 SFB 92 74 91 75 / 50 10 40 10 ORL 90 75 91 75 / 60 20 40 10 FPR 88 72 88 75 / 60 20 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
41069 12 mi98 minENE 3.9G5.8 82°F 84°F29.9975°F
41070 12 mi91 min 84°F2 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 32 mi61 minNE 4.1 84°F 30.0475°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 46 mi46 minE 6G7 83°F 85°F30.0083°F


Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: DAB
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Tide / Current for Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida
   
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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
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Sat -- 02:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:15 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:33 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:01 PM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:13 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida, Tide feet
12
am
1.8
1
am
2.4
2
am
2.9
3
am
3.2
4
am
3.1
5
am
2.7
6
am
2.1
7
am
1.4
8
am
0.8
9
am
0.5
10
am
0.4
11
am
0.8
12
pm
1.3
1
pm
2.1
2
pm
2.8
3
pm
3.2
4
pm
3.4
5
pm
3.3
6
pm
2.8
7
pm
2.2
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
1
10
pm
0.8
11
pm
0.9


Tide / Current for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
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Sat -- 02:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:38 AM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:23 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:23 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:48 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida, Tide feet
12
am
1
1
am
1.4
2
am
1.8
3
am
2
4
am
2
5
am
1.9
6
am
1.6
7
am
1.2
8
am
0.9
9
am
0.6
10
am
0.4
11
am
0.4
12
pm
0.7
1
pm
1
2
pm
1.5
3
pm
1.8
4
pm
2
5
pm
2
6
pm
1.8
7
pm
1.5
8
pm
1.2
9
pm
0.9
10
pm
0.7
11
pm
0.6


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southeast   
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Melbourne, FL,




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