Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Hill, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:18PM Thursday February 20, 2020 7:59 PM EST (00:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:09AMMoonset 3:43PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 340 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm this evening to 3 am est Friday...
.gale warning in effect from 3 am est Friday through late Friday night...
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots. Occasional gusts to gale force after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet late in the night with a dominant period 7 seconds. Very rough on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of offshore moving Thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Friday..North winds 25 to 30 knots. Frequent gusts to gale force. Seas building to 8 to 11 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Very rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to gale force diminishing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 10 to 14 feet with a dominant period 12 seconds. Very rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 340 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis..A strong cold front will push south across the local waters this evening and overnight. Strong high pressure to the north will then build over the local atlantic waters through Friday night and produce a surge of north winds with frequent gusts to gale force. High pressure will push east across the western atlantic this weekend and weaken, allowing winds to gradually decrease but seas will be slower to subside.
Gulf stream hazards.. North winds increasing to 20 to 25 knots this evening building seas 6 to 9 feet late overnight. Occasional gusts to gale force toward daybreak north of the cape. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday, february 17th. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Hill, FL
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location: 29.22, -81.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 202018 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 316 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

DISCUSSION.

. Significant High Seas/High Surf Event Friday-Saturday with Minor to Moderate Beach Erosion Expected .

. Very Windy/Gusty and Much Cooler on Friday .

Current-Tonight . Finally have mixed out much of the very low clouds from earlier in the day, but plenty of low-level moisture around to develop low-based cumulus over much of the area. Temperatures have also responded to some breaks in the clouds with values in the 70s/80s areawide. An east coast sea breeze boundary has developed along the Treasure and Space coasts and is slowly moving inland. Drier air aloft has thus far limited any convective development this afternoon, but should any showers form as forecast there could be an isolated lightning storm, especially if any involvement with the sea breeze boundary and especially from Brevard County northward. Movement would be west to east at 30 to 35 mph. Threats would include occasional lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds.

Low pressure has developed off of the southeast U.S. coast today and will move northeastward tonight over the western Atlc. As it does, it will drag a strong cold front across ECFL this evening and overnight. A northerly wind surge will follow this boundary and will likely see gusty conditions immediately behind it for a bit. NW-NNE winds will continue through the night and may remain gusty north of I-4 and especially along the immediate Volusia and north Brevard coasts.

There may be a brief lull in any precip activity after sunset as previous showers push off of the coast and across the local Atlantic waters. Much of the precip associated with this new approaching front will be behind it and especially after midnight. Greatest chances here will also be near/north of I-4. Model guidance really socks in the low clouds this evening/overnight post-frontal. One thing to keep an eye on will be fog potential from roughly from southern Brevard/Osceola County southward. At present we do not include any mention in the zones/grids. As skies clear this evening (southward) there may be a small window of opportunity ahead of the front. Though once the front passes southward it will mix the air in the low-levels, thus ending any potential.

Cooler min temperatures in the lower 50s across the north but holding in the low to mid 60s along the Space and Treasure coasts. Temperatures at midnight will likely be the highest values of the calendar day for many locations on Fri.

Fri . Very tight pressure gradient behind the latest front as strong high pressure (1045mb) builds out of the central CONUS toward the Gulf Coast States and southeast U.S. Windy/Gusty NNW-NNE winds 20-25 mph with frequent gusts 30-35 mph and up to 40 mph along the immediate coast/barrier islands. A Wind Advisory seems appropriate for at least the coast if not for interior counties as well. Cloudy and much cooler conditions otherwise. There will be some areas of light rain around, especially in the morning with decreasing chances into the afternoon, but still highest coverage near the east coast. Temperatures will be limited to the M-U50s near to north of Orlando and 60s further south, perhaps 69-72F across Martin County.

It will turn even colder into Friday night with lows in the 40s across the interior and Volusia County, with min temps in the 50s across Brevard County and the Treasure Coast as low level flow veers slightly more onshore.

Sat-Sun (modified previous) . High pressure settles across the Southeast U.S. into the weekend, with winds gradually decreasing as they veer to the northeast into Saturday and east on Sunday. However, it will still be breezy, especially along the coast on Saturday. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers along the coast will still be possible to start the weekend, especially south of the Cape, but then drier conditions expected into Sunday. Highs will still be cooler than normal, in the mid to upper 60s Saturday, except around 70 degrees across the southern Treasure Coast. Then as onshore flow persists into late weekend, temps will be closer to normal in the low to mid 70s.

Mon-Thu (previous discussion) . High pressure shifts offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast by early next week, with another cold front quickly approaching and moving through the Southeast United States. This will continue to veer flow to the southeast to south, with moisture and rain chances gradually increasing through Monday and Tuesday and temperatures continuing a warming trend across the area. Highs forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s on Monday and upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday. Some timing differences in frontal passage and overall rainfall amounts still exist between latest GFS and ECWMF model runs. However, best rain chances look to occur toward mid-week with the frontal passage, and then cooler than normal conditions returning for Thu-Fri.

AVIATION. South to southwest winds have finally developed over much of the area this afternoon. An east coast sea breeze has formed across the Space/Treasure coasts, but is having a hard time pushing too far inland. While it remains unseasonably warm with modest instability and increasing low-level moisture, drier air aloft and a hefty "cap" near 700 mb has thus far limited any convection, though meso-models still suggest some late day/early evening activity pushing off of the east coast. An isolated lightning storm is not out of the question should convection find a way to develop, especially Brevard County northward.

Low pressure developing off of the southeast U.S. coast will drag a strong front, with northerly wind surge, down the peninsula tonight with initial gusty northerly winds. Winds the remainder of the night will range from NW-NNE following passage and could remain a bit higher north of I-4 and along the Volusia and north Brevard coasts. MOS guidance really socks in the low clouds IFR/LIFR this evening and overnight behind this latest boundary, as well. One thing to watch is if skies clear this evening (southward), we could see a brief period of patchy fog from say Brevard-Osceola southward, but it should quickly mix out following frontal passage later tonight. There will also be increasing shower chances through the night behind the front (after midnight), especially north of I-4.

MARINE. Low pressure continues to develop and strengthen off the northeast FL coast and southeast GA. The low will then transition northeastward tonight. Mariners will have to keep an eye westward into early evening should any scattered showers or isolated storms develop late in the day over land. Movement would be from west to east at 30-35 kts. Seas 2-3 ft today over the southern waters (Treasure Coast), building to 4-5 ft over the open Atlc north of the Cape.

As the aforementioned low moves northeast it will drag a strong front across the waters tonight. There will be an initial wind surge immediately following the boundary, then perhaps a brief lull later tonight in wind speeds, before another (secondary) strong surge builds down the coast. We begin a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) at 00Z/7PM, except for the near shore leg, Sebastian Inlet-Jupiter Inlet; then a Gale Warning begins at 08Z/3AM north of Sebastian Inlet for all marine legs north, then areawide by 15Z/10AM Fri morning as the Gale Warning spreads further southward. The Gale Warning will be for frequent gusts to Gale Force (greater than 34 kts). By daybreak Fri morning, seas will build to 6-9 ft north of Sebastian Inlet well offshore.

Fri . Very hazardous marine conditions across all of the local coastal waters, 0-60nm. Gale warning for all marine legs. Small craft should stay in port. Northerly winds 25-30 kts with frequent gusts to Gale Force. Seas building 12-16 ft over the Gulf Stream through late afternoon and 8-11 ft nearer the shore. SCT-NMRS showers forecast.

Sat-Sun (previous) . Boating conditions will remain hazardous through the weekend. Winds will veer to the northeast Saturday and to the east on Sunday, with winds speeds gradually decreasing as pressure gradient relaxes. Wind speeds will drop from around 15-20 knots Saturday to 10-15 knots over much of the waters on Sunday. However, seas will be very slow to subside, with large wave heights up to 10-16 feet away from the coast Saturday, diminishing to 7-9 feet on Sunday.

Mon-Tue (modified previous) . Winds veer to the southeast Monday with winds remaining around 10-15 knots before veering southerly and increasing to 15-20 knots on Tuesday. Seas will continue to decrease, but wave heights up to 6 feet over the Gulf Stream will continue to produce poor boating conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 54 57 48 65 / 70 30 20 20 MCO 57 62 47 69 / 40 30 10 10 MLB 61 65 55 69 / 20 40 30 30 VRB 64 68 58 70 / 20 50 40 40 LEE 52 58 41 67 / 50 10 10 10 SFB 54 59 46 67 / 50 30 10 10 ORL 55 60 48 68 / 40 30 10 10 FPR 64 70 56 70 / 20 50 40 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm- Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm- Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm- Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.



SHORT TERM . Sedlock LONG TERM . Combs AVIATION . Sedlock PUBLIC SERVICE . Watson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 32 mi74 min N 13 58°F 1019 hPa57°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 46 mi59 min N 24 G 26 56°F 64°F1017.6 hPa (+1.0)
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 60 mi59 min Calm G 2.9 72°F 72°F1016.5 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL3 mi66 minN 135.00 miFog/Mist61°F60°F97%1016.5 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL8 mi69 minN 8 G 143.00 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%1016.9 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL12 mi72 minNNE 9 G 175.00 miFog/Mist61°F59°F94%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAB

Wind History from DAB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6NE9NE8NE6N4N3N6N6N9N9N7N9N8N7N6N7N73NE6NE10NE8N9N11N13
1 day agoS6S5S5S4W6W5S4W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW33NW5NE6N9NE7NE8N13NE11NE5
2 days agoN6NE6N3N3CalmCalmN3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm--S5S8S9S75E7E744S7

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida
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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:46 AM EST     4.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:11 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:43 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:03 PM EST     3.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:16 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.51.52.63.54.14.33.93.12.11.10.400.20.71.62.433.33.12.41.60.70

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.