SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Weak backdoor cold front across the FL/GA border will continue to decay into late Monday. Drier air building southward down the eastern seaboard north of the frontal boundary now looks to remain mostly offshore and could lower convective coverage across coastal SE GA on Sunday. Otherwise, scattered to numerous showers and storms develop along the sea breezes each afternoon into evening. With weak ENE flow, the Atlantic sea breeze becomes dominant with the sea breeze merger expected along the I-75 corridor. Slow, erratic storm motion combined with deep/tropical moisture in the atmosphere with PWATs over 2 inches will continue the heavy rainfall/localized flood threat area-wide across NE FL/SE GA.
Strongest storms will be along the sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions. Convection should fade each night by midnight. Highs will be in the upper 80s along the coast and low 90s inland.
Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Atlantic high pressure ridging attempts to build back in across FL mid-week next week resulting in weak steering flow. Moisture lingers across the area supporting scattered to numerous showers and storms developing along the sea breezes each day. With weak flow, the sea breeze merger will likely be along the US 301 corridor with locally heavy rainfall remaining the main threat.
Highs will start to climb toward the mid-90s later in the week.
Heat indices could reach advisory criteria (108 F) by Wednesday and potentially continue into the end of the week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

VFR conditions with lingering mid to upper level clouds at 06z over the area. Some low vsby at times possible around GNV and VQQ in a few hours so continued to show MVFR vsby for now. An MVFR cig also possible ~11z-15z around SSI and GNV but low probabilities prevent including in TAFS at this time. Another active day for showers and storms mainly in the 19z-23z time frame, but lingering showers and storms likely around VQQ and GNV from 23z-03z. Have included TEMPO groups for most of the northeast FL sites, except for SGJ with PROB30 group due to lower confidence, and only a VCTS for SSI. MVFR and IFR with gusty winds expected in the TSRA.

MARINE
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Not much change in the marine forecast through the weekend, with just a slight bump in the east-northeast winds on Sunday as the backdoor front moves into the region. Seas generally look to be 2-3 ft through early Sunday with a dominant east- southeast wind- sea at 8-9 seconds. A bump up in the seas expected Sunday night but will gradually come back down to 2-3 ft by Monday night/Tuesday morning. Main weather concern will be the threat for a few more thunderstorms expected over area waters through Sunday. The nearly stationary front will probably dissipate by Monday, with weak sfc ridging building south of the Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds will remain light during the latter time at 10-15 kt at most.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents was shown for today and Sunday and may be more prevalent within a few hours of low tide, with surf up to 2-3ft or 2 foot. Some weak east swells still noted about 12-13 seconds about half a foot. Little change for Sunday, but wind flow ill be more directly onshore.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 73 90 72 / 50 60 40 10 SSI 90 77 87 78 / 60 50 20 10 JAX 93 74 90 73 / 80 60 60 10 SGJ 91 76 89 76 / 70 60 50 20 GNV 92 72 91 71 / 80 70 80 50 OCF 93 74 91 73 / 80 60 80 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.