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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 835 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 835 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..Poor boating conditions will linger in the gulf stream tonight as high pressure building across the southeast u.s. Moves seaward into the western atlantic. Winds and seas will increase again Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, as will chances for showers and lightning storms. Winds and seas remain elevated early next week as a stout area of high pressure moves in behind the front.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas 5 to 6 feet in the treasure coast and brevard marine legs tonight.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Wednesday, december 6th.
49 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 35 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KJAX 080555 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1255 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

New AVIATION

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Periods of IFR conditions are expected through around sunrise at VQQ and SSI. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at the rest of the terminals, as high cloud cover overspreads our region. Mid and high altitude cloud cover will then gradually thicken during the morning hours on Friday, with a few light showers possibly developing near the terminals after 19Z. Confidence was too low to include anything other than vicinity coverage at this time.
Ceilings should remain VFR at the regional terminals through at least 03Z Saturday, with lower stratus clouds and fog then possibly developing towards the end of the TAF period at VQQ.
Light and variable surface winds will prevail through the early to mid-morning hours on Friday, with southeast to southerly winds then increasing to around 5 knots towards noon. Surface winds then shift to east-southeasterly at the coastal terminals after 18Z.

UPDATE
Issued at 652 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Only minor tweaks to the forecast tonight. Although winds are very light to calm over the region, plenty of high clouds and a slight uptick in low level moisture should keep low temps from dropping significantly overnight, and therefore frost is not currently expected. The bump in moisture could result in some patchy fog over northeast FL, particularly away from the coast.

NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Tranquil weather conditions are expected tonight through Friday as high pressure continues to migrate overhead and then push east into the Atlantic through Friday. As it does so, predominant flow will shift southerly and prompt a warming trend that will carry into the weekend. Lows tonight will be warmer tonight as an impulse lifts overhead bringing a blanket of mid and high clouds; readings will be in the low/mid 40s inland and in the low 50s closer to the coast, which will not support frost development.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Saturday night)
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

By Saturday, southerly winds will warm up temperatures into the mid to upper 70s area-wide, with some locations seeing high temps about 10 degrees above climo. By Saturday evening showers ahead of a frontal passage moving southeastward will approach inland southeast Georgia.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Active weather expected Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Numerous showers forecast across NE FL and SE GA, with a chance for isolated thunderstorms as well. Some of which have the potential to be strong, but chances remain low at this time.
Fairly good agreement on timing among models for this frontal passage, with the onset of precip beginning late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, filling in southeastward throughout the day. Elevated southwesterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the frontal passage will allow for ample moisture, with PWATs rising above 1.5 inches. The heaviest rainfall and greatest thunderstorm risk timing will be early afternoon to evening on Sunday.

Following the frontal passage Sunday evening, dry air will infiltrate in across the region, and temperatures will bounce back to below average. Sunday night lows will be in the upper 30s across inland SE GA, with lower to mid 40s along the coast and inland NE FL as gusty winds shift to northwesterly. Chilly high temperatures Monday as cold air advection continues, temperatures will stay below 60 degrees for most of NE FL and SE GA. As winds calm slightly, low temperatures fall to just above freezing for inland SE GA, frost at this time is not expected due to winds remaining at 5-10 mph overnight. Temperatures will gradually warm up mid- week to near normal as high pressure builds to our north, allowing for breezy onshore winds and potential for isolated showers on Wednesday moving inland off the Atlantic.

MARINE
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

High pressure will shift over the waters this afternoon and evening and progress eastward beyond the Gulf Stream this weekend as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front will pass across the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday and elevate winds and seas to Small Craft Advisory levels, particularly offshore. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will be associated with this frontal passage. Behind the front, an initial area of high pressure will build from west and then to the north through Tuesday resulting in breezy to windy onshore flow through the latter half of next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Friday at NE FL beaches. A lower risk is expected at SE GA beaches through the end of the week. Increasing risk is expected this weekend with a passing cold front.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Moisture will return to NE FL and SE GA beginning Friday as winds shift southerly, rising minRH values to above 50% through the weekend.
Dispersion will be fair to low Friday and Saturday inland, with critically low values along the immediate Atlantic coast, below 20 units on Friday.
Rain chances will increase over the weekend, especially by Sunday when a cold front moves into the area accompanied by numerous to widespread showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. The front will sweep east of the area Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 55 76 62 / 10 10 10 30 SSI 68 59 72 62 / 10 10 10 10 JAX 71 58 77 62 / 10 10 10 10 SGJ 72 60 76 62 / 10 10 10 10 GNV 73 59 79 63 / 10 0 10 0 OCF 74 58 80 63 / 10 0 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Ormond Beach
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Thu -- 01:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:01 AM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     0.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:59 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:36 PM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:26 PM EST     0.61 feet High Tide
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Ormond Beach, Halifax River, Florida, Tide feet

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