Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montegut, LA

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

As mentioned in the short term...Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to move generally eastward across the Gulf as an H5 trough moves southward and a surface cold front pushes through our region. This will help dry us out both closer to the surface and mid/upper levels. Again, the main focus in terms of impacts will be marine impacts across the open waters (see marine section) and the continuation of possible coastal flooding with the easterly dynamic fetch remaining in place allowing for water to pile up little by little. This should start to decrease as the surface flow shifts to a northerly direction behind the aforementioned front late Monday or Tuesday.

From this point on early to midweek it looks to turn mostly to a temperatures forecast with POPs nearing zero. Temperatures will be very comfortable out there along with lower humidity values with high pressure settling into the region from north to south. Highs will be at or just below average for early to mid October and overnight lower along and north of the I10/12 corridor will drop off to 60 or perhaps a bit lower, especially drainage areas along the Pascagoula and Pearl Rivers and interior southwest MS. (Frye)

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Mostly VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF cycle. A lingering shower along the coast is still possible (mainly HUM if anywhere), but chances decreasing this evening. BTR and MCB are signaling a slight reduction in visibility in the early morning, but this is rather low confidence. Included MVFR for now for a brief time to account for this potential. Otherwise, easterly winds will decrease overnight after we decouple and then increase back to 10-20kts by Sunday afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Easterly winds will continue through the rest of the weekend and in fact increase gradually in time as pressure gradient tightens over the area. A more northeasterly wind up to 25 knots could be produced by interactions between TS Milton well south of our region and high pressure to our north. Seas, at least the open Gulf Waters will begin to increase with time as the TC tracks eastward over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional SCA will likely be needed through midweek or so...again specifically for the outer waters. Gradually, as the TC moves inland over Central Florida, conditions will gradually improve and pressure gradient will relax just a bit as high pressure settles into the area from the north. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 71 91 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 70 88 68 90 / 10 10 0 0 MSY 74 86 73 88 / 10 10 0 0 GPT 71 86 69 88 / 10 10 0 0 PQL 72 88 69 91 / 10 20 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for LAZ069-070-076- 078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577.