Montegut, LA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montegut, LA

June 16, 2024 6:30 AM CDT (11:30 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM
Moonrise 2:15 PM   Moonset 1:11 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ550 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Nm- 408 Am Cdt Sun Jun 16 2024

.small craft exercise caution in effect through Monday morning - .

.small craft advisory in effect from Monday morning through Thursday morning - .

Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers.

Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.

Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 7 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.

Monday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail: southeast 6 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.

Tuesday - East winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail: southeast 7 feet at 9 seconds. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Tuesday night - East winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail: southeast 6 feet at 9 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Wednesday - East winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 9 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Wednesday night - East winds 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.

Thursday - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Thursday night - East winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: east 5 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 408 Am Cdt Sun Jun 16 2024

Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure over the area will shift to the east today, and winds will turn more persistent from the south-southeast. These winds will strengthen to small craft advisory levels on Monday in response to a broad area of low pressure developing in the bay of campeche, and these stronger winds of 20 to 30 knots will then persist through the middle of the week. Seas will also build in response to the strengthening winds with seas of up to 12 feet expected in the offshore waters by Tuesday and Wednesday. A gradual decrease in wind speeds and seas is expected on Thursday and Friday as the low in the bay of campeche moves into mexico and weakens.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montegut, LA
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Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 160905 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 405 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A surge of deep tropical moisture will feed into the forecast area today as deep layer southerly flow develops between a strong ridge axis over the Southeastern CONUS and a broad upper level low pressure system in the southwest GOMEX. PWATS will rise from around 1.5 inches this morning to around 2 inches by tonight.
These elevated PWATS ranging near the 90th percentile to daily max values for mid-June will remain over the forecast area through Tuesday night as the upper level pattern remains little changed.
Today will see widely scattered showers and thunderstorms develop during the late morning hours across coastal Louisiana, and this convection will then spread inland through the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour could accompany the deepest convection this afternoon, but mean storm motion between 10 and 15 mph should limit the flood threat to only a few more prone locations like underpasses in urbanized areas.
The increased convective activity and cloud cover will help limit temperatures to more average readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will persist through the evening hours before turning more isolated as overnight lows dip into the low to mid 70s and overall instability wanes.

A series of weak upper level vorticity maxima embedded within the deep layer southerly flow will pass through the region on Monday and Tuesday, and this increased upper level lift will support more widespread convective activity on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
PWATS will remain near daily max values in the 2.25 to 2.4 inch range, and very efficient rainfall processes are expected to take place as H5 temperatures warm to around -4C. The result will be the potential for hourly rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour with the deepest convection that forms both days. Fortunately, storm motion will be quite fast at around 30 mph both days, and this will help to limit the overall flood potential across the region. However, the threat of localized street flooding issues in more urbanized and poorly drained areas will persist on both Monday and Tuesday. Convective activity will peak from late morning through the evening hours as temperatures warm into the 80s each day with more isolated to scattered convective coverage expected at night as lows fall back into the 70s. Given the overall lower threat of flooding across a much larger area, have opted to not issue a flood watch for flash flooding at this time.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Upper level ridging will build back over the area on Wednesday and remain in place through Thursday. The result will be a sharp decrease in PWATS to more normal values of around 1.5 to 1.75 inches both days. Overall, a very normal Summer pattern of diurnally induced shower and thunderstorm activity forming along seabreeze and outflow boundaries is expected. Heavy rainfall will become a lesser threat, although hourly rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour can still be expected with the strongest storms that form. However, the threat of strong wind gusts accompanying these deeper convective cells will increase given the deeper pool of dry mid-level air in place. The convection will dissipate in the evening hours as temperatures cool from the upper 80s and lower 90s into the 70s.

Going into Friday and Saturday, an inverted trough axis embedded within developing deep layer easterly flow on the southern periphery of a strong ridge over the Mid-Atlantic states will pass through the northern Gulf and the forecast area. This trough axis will bring higher PWATS of around 2 inches and increased upper level lift to the area, and the end result will be higher PoP and more numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. The convection will remain diurnal in nature with peak activity occurring in the afternoon hours as temperatures warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s, but the increased forcing aloft will support scattered shower and thunderstorm activity along and south of the I-10 corridor both Thursday and Friday nights even as temperatures cool into the 70s. Model sounding analysis indicates that some drier air will continue to linger in the mid-levels over this period, so both gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be a concern on Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions through the morning for all terminals. Beyond this, convection will be on the increase generally from southeast to northwest. Used PROB30s for the far west and northern terminals. Used -SHRA and VCTS elsewhere given the low confidence in timing and coverage. Under the heaviest storms, conditions may drop to IFR, but for now given the lower confidence kept things in the MVFR/VFR range. Subsequent forecasts may highlight changes including the need for lower flight categories and perhaps short fused TEMPOs.

MARINE
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Conditions will gradually worsen today into tonight over the open Gulf waters as the pressure gradient between a high to the northeast and a low to the southwest strengthens. By tomorrow morning, small craft advisory conditions are expected to be in place as easterly winds ramp up to 20 to 25 knots. These easterly winds will remain in place through the end of the week and could further strengthen to near gale levels on Tuesday and Wednesday as the low to the southwest continues to deepen. Given the long fetch of these 20 to 30 knot winds from the southeast Gulf into the coastal waters a swell train of 3 to 4 feet is expected on top of the wind waves of 5 to 8 feet, and this will push seas to between 8 and 12 feet over the open Gulf waters on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, water will continue to pile up on east and south facing shores over this period, and minor coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is expected from Tuesday through Thursday.

The low in the southwest Gulf should move into Mexico on Thursday and Friday and the pressure gradient will begin to ease as the low weakens. Winds will slowly ease from 20 to 25 knots on Thursday to 15 to 20 knots by Friday. Given the extended duration of small craft conditions, a small craft advisory is in effect for the open Gulf waters and the Chandeleur and Breton Sounds from Monday morning to Thursday morning. There is the potential that winds could further increase into gale conditions, and a gale watch may be issued closer to the event on Tuesday and Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 91 72 86 72 / 40 40 80 70 BTR 91 74 86 75 / 50 40 90 60 ASD 89 75 86 75 / 50 40 80 60 MSY 88 78 85 79 / 50 40 90 60 GPT 87 77 86 78 / 50 40 70 60 PQL 88 75 87 76 / 50 30 70 60

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 31 mi43 min 88°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 35 mi43 min 88°F29.91
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 39 mi79 minS 11G13 83°F 3 ft29.8975°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 44 mi43 minNE 1.9G2.9 83°F29.91
EINL1 45 mi43 minNE 7G7 82°F29.89
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 45 mi43 minNNE 1.9G1.9 82°F29.92
CARL1 49 mi43 min 82°F


Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KGAO SOUTH LAFOURCHE LEONARD MILLER JR,LA 18 sm15 minSE 0310 smClear81°F75°F84%29.90
KHUM HOUMATERREBONNE,LA 20 sm43 mincalm7 smClear79°F79°F100%29.90
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KGAO
   
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Wind History graph: GAO
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Tide / Current for Cocodrie, Terrebonne Bay, Louisiana
   
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Cocodrie
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Sun -- 02:11 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:03 AM CDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:14 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:38 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cocodrie, Terrebonne Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
12
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Tide / Current for Pelican Islands, Timbalier Bay, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Pelican Islands
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Sun -- 02:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:08 AM CDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:13 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:25 PM CDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Pelican Islands, Timbalier Bay, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet
12
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0.4
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0.6
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley   
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New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,




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