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AMZ454 Expires:202312080715;;067170 Fzus52 Kjax 071822 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 122 pm est Thu dec 7 2023
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-080715- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 122 pm est Thu dec 7 2023
Rest of today..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters smooth.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 122 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..
high pressure will shift over the waters this afternoon and evening and progress eastward beyond the gulf stream this weekend as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front will pass across the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday and elevate winds and seas to small craft advisory levels, particularly offshore. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms will be associated with this frontal passage. Behind the front, an initial area of high pressure will build from west and then to the north through Tuesday resulting in breezy to windy onshore flow through the latter half of next week.

Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 05, 2023 at 1200 utc...
57 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 59 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 68 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 87 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 072318 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 618 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Tranquil weather conditions are expected tonight through Friday as high pressure continues to migrate overhead and then push east into the Atlantic through Friday. As it does so, predominant flow will shift southerly and prompt a warming trend that will carry into the weekend. Lows tonight will be warmer tonight as an impulse lifts overhead bringing a blanket of mid and high clouds; readings will be in the low/mid 40s inland and in the low 50s closer to the coast, which will not support frost development.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Saturday night)
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

By Saturday, southerly winds will warm up temperatures into the mid to upper 70s area-wide, with some locations seeing high temps about 10 degrees above climo. By Saturday evening showers ahead of a frontal passage moving southeastward will approach inland southeast Georgia.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Active weather expected Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Numerous showers forecast across NE FL and SE GA, with a chance for isolated thunderstorms as well. Some of which have the potential to be strong, but chances remain low at this time.
Fairly good agreement on timing among models for this frontal passage, with the onset of precip beginning late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, filling in southeastward throughout the day. Elevated southwesterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the frontal passage will allow for ample moisture, with PWATs rising above 1.5 inches. The heaviest rainfall and greatest thunderstorm risk timing will be early afternoon to evening on Sunday.

Following the frontal passage Sunday evening, dry air will infiltrate in across the region, and temperatures will bounce back to below average. Sunday night lows will be in the upper 30s across inland SE GA, with lower to mid 40s along the coast and inland NE FL as gusty winds shift to northwesterly. Chilly high temperatures Monday as cold air advection continues, temperatures will stay below 60 degrees for most of NE FL and SE GA. As winds calm slightly, low temperatures fall to just above freezing for inland SE GA, frost at this time is not expected due to winds remaining at 5-10 mph overnight. Temperatures will gradually warm up mid- week to near normal as high pressure builds to our north, allowing for breezy onshore winds and potential for isolated showers on Wednesday moving inland off the Atlantic.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR prevails with only high clouds across the area, and some mid clouds entering overnight as well. Some patchy fog is expected late tonight into Friday morning, especially away from the coast where VFR and possibly even IFR could occur in sites like VQQ and GNV. A more easterly wind is expected Friday, though wind speeds are expected to remain below 10 kt. A few showers could stream into the area Friday Night, though this would be expected after this forecast period.

MARINE
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

High pressure will shift over the waters this afternoon and evening and progress eastward beyond the Gulf Stream this weekend as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front will pass across the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday and elevate winds and seas to Small Craft Advisory levels, particularly offshore. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will be associated with this frontal passage. Behind the front, an initial area of high pressure will build from west and then to the north through Tuesday resulting in breezy to windy onshore flow through the latter half of next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Friday at NE FL beaches. A lower risk is expected at SE GA beaches through the end of the week. Increasing risk is expected this weekend with a passing cold front.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 146 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Moisture will return to NE FL and SE GA beginning Friday as winds shift southerly, rising minRH values to above 50% through the weekend.
Dispersion will be fair to low Friday and Saturday inland, with critically low values along the immediate Atlantic coast, below 20 units on Friday.
Rain chances will increase over the weekend, especially by Sunday when a cold front moves into the area accompanied by numerous to widespread showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. The front will sweep east of the area Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 41 69 55 76 / 0 10 10 10 SSI 50 68 59 72 / 0 10 10 10 JAX 45 71 58 77 / 0 10 10 10 SGJ 52 72 60 76 / 0 10 10 10 GNV 46 73 59 79 / 0 10 0 10 OCF 48 74 58 80 / 0 10 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Georgetown
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Thu -- 01:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:13 AM EST     3.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM EST     3.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:01 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:16 PM EST     3.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:36 PM EST     3.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EST     3.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:38 PM EST     3.91 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Georgetown, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet

Welaka
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:08 AM EST     3.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EST     3.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:37 AM EST     3.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:52 AM EST     3.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:01 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     3.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:07 PM EST     3.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet

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