Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tiki Island, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 128 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Preparations for the winter storm and extreme cold should already be complete across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods, and should be quickly rushed to completion this afternoon elsewhere. The Arctic front and associated thunderstorm activity has moved offshore, with chilly northerly winds in its wake. An inverted trough is in place at the surface extending northward across the forecast area, with slightly warmer air compared to cooler temperatures in far northeast Texas, and much colder temperatures in North Texas. These are beginning to approach our northwest counties. The inverted trough, slight influence from daytime heating despite overcast highs, and low dew point depressions (wet bulb temperatures close to the actual temperature) have kept temperatures in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods around 34-36 degrees currently. There are some pockets of 33 degrees, however.
This won't last with subfreezing temperatures just upstream, and we still expect temperatures to drop below freezing in our far northern counties later this afternoon. Modifying a special 18z sounding from Texas A&M University for colder temperatures indicated later indicates a classic freezing rain sounding with temperatures around +12C in the inversion aloft, and a small pocket of subfreezing air near the surface.

While the more widespread precipitation has moved offshore until more moves in from the west tonight, scattered showers continue to move northward as southerly low-level flow lifts isentropically over the Arctic front. Occasional pockets of reduced visibility are noted which are indicative of drizzle. Therefore once temperatures fall below freezing in our northern counties later this afternoon, we will see pockets of freezing rain and freezing drizzle. Keep in mind that just because you cannot see precipitation on radar does not mean it is safe to travel as freezing drizzle may not appear on radar but can still cause dangerous icy patches.

Continued cold air advection aided by a little nocturnal cooling despite cloudcover, and dynamic cooling from increased precipitation, will cause the subfreezing temperatures to move southward through the night, reaching very near the coast by Sunday morning. Meanwhile precipitation will increase through the night as the main shortwave ejects out of northwest Mexico. The heaviest precipitation looks to occur after midnight tonight into Sunday morning. As temperatures drop below freezing, rain will change over to freezing rain, along with some pockets of sleet where the near-surface cold layer deepens or where heavier precipitation rates cause hydrometeors to not fully melt in the warm layer as they will be falling too fast. HRRR continues to indicate medium probabilities of embedded thunderstorms, including potentially in areas of wintry precipitation. These will cause areas of fluctuations in precipitation type and the potential for pockets or bands of higher accumulations.

The highest ice accumulations continue to look to be in the ice storm warning area in the Piney Woods where the highest probabilities for damaging ice accumulations greater than 0.25" are, with some low probabilities for even more significant ice accumulations approaching 0.5". We also do expect some bands of ice accumulations reaching 0.25" elsewhere across portions of the Winter Storm Warning. Some of the 12z guidance indicates this potential along an area from Colorado County up through Montgomery and northern Liberty Counties, potentially also across far northwest portions of Harris County, but there is not clear agreement. Areas in the Brazos Valley are also at risk of ice accumulations near a quarter inch. These areas will remain in a Winter Storm Warning rather than an Ice Storm Warning at this time which still covers the threat, and will message that this is a higher impact Winter Storm Warning. With some cooler trends in the models in Coastal Jackson County, and inland portions of Matagorda and Brazoria Counties, have expanded the Winter Storm Warning to include those areas, for ice accumulations up to 1/8" in far inland portions of these zones. Freezing rain for areas right along the coast remains uncertain, but impacts are still possible as only a small amount of ice on highway overpasses and causeways can have a big impact. These areas remain under a Winter Weather Advisory.

Precipitation ends from west to east on Sunday morning, but strong cold air advection will remain in place. A low stratus deck will remain over the area. With temperatures remaining below freezing for areas north of I-10 and only rising above freezing for a few hours south of I-10, travel impacts will likely continue through the day. Then as temperatures drop well below freezing across the entire area Sunday night, any moisture that remains on roadways from the rain or melting will refreeze, causing additional significant travel impacts. Portions of the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley remain below freezing all day on Monday, and temperatures drop well below freezing across the entire area Monday night with additional re-freezing potentially occurring. So travel impacts will likely extend until Tuesday for portions of the area.

An Extreme Cold Warning goes into effect tonight, and has been extended all the way into Tuesday morning. The coldest wind chills will be Sunday night into Monday morning with winds continuing all night and cold temperatures. The coldest air temperatures will be Monday night into Tuesday as the center of a surface high parks right over the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley resulting in calm winds and strong radiational cooling. Cool but not as cold temperatures linger for the rest of the week. Dry conditions are expected over land areas through Thursday. High uncertainty remains regarding the northern extent of precipitation with a potential Gulf low by Friday and whether it will overlap with any colder air. NBM does indicate some low probabilities for wintry precipitation somewhere along the Gulf Coast region, but we will dive more into that once this system moves through.

JDavis

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1226 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

IFR/LIFR conditions are generally expected to continue through much of the TAF period with improvements to VSBYs towards the end of the period. Expecting IFR CIGs to continue into the next cycle. As the cold front continues to move offshore, any residual moisture combined with temperatures dropping to freezing or sub- freezing will result in precip changing over from RA to FZRA/PL from north to south starting this afternoon and overnight. Not enough confidence that frozen precip will occur in this period at LBX/GLS, so have opted to leave out of TAFs for now.

CRP

MARINE
Issued at 1239 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The Arctic front is currently moving over the coastal waters, bringing thunderstorms and gusty winds in its wake. As the front meanders offshore, trailing moisture will keep period of showers through Sunday. We'll continue to monitor observations as very cold air continues to filter in. As temperatures fall, freezing rain and or sleet will be possible in and around the bays tonight into Sunday morning. In addition, strong north to northwest winds and elevated seas are also anticipated across the bays and Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through at least Monday.
Occasional gusts to near gale are possible. With the arrival of strong northerly winds, there will also be the potential for abnormally low water levels in the bays, especially during low tide cycles Sunday night into Monday.

Mariners should evaluate these deteriorating conditions before commencing or continuing transits.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 23 28 17 30 / 90 40 0 0 Houston (IAH) 29 35 22 37 / 100 80 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 34 41 28 41 / 90 80 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ163-164-176>179.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300- 313-335>338-436>439.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ195>199.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ200-210>213-226-227-235>237-300-313-335.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ214-238-336>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375.