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GMZ436 Atchafalaya And East Cote Blanche Bays- 300 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 300 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis.. Surface high pressure over the southeastern u.s. Will keep light to occasionally moderate onshore flow through early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms can be expected this weekend. Higher chances can be expected Monday as a stronger upper level disturbance and cool front moves south across the region. Chances of showers and Thunderstorms will continue Tuesday and Wednesday as the frontal boundary stalls across the coastal waters.

FXUS64 KLCH 230855 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 355 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday night)

Wx map shows high pressure ridging across the Eastern U.S. and Gulf, with Ophelia about to make landfall across North Carolina.
Across our region, light east-southeast winds across the Gulf and coastal parishes/counties, mainly light and variable to calm along and north of I-10. Radar is precipitation free with satellite imagery shows mainly scattered high level cloudiness across South Central Louisiana. Patchy fog possible across Central and South Central Louisiana. Any fog that develops expected to dissipate around daybreak.

A mid to upper level ridge centered over Northern Mexico coupled with a weak longwave trough over the Eastern U.S. will continue this weekend, keeping a weak north to northwest flow aloft over the region. Not expecting any significant upper level shortwaves today, with slightly drier air aloft filtering across the area.
Thus, the chances of precipitation 20% for this afternoon, slightly higher along the I-10 corridor of South Louisiana. Highs a little warmer in the mid to upper 90s north of I-10, lower to mid 90s further south. The precipitation is expected to end by sunset. Lows in the lower to mid 70s by Sunday morning.

By Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, a stronger upper level disturbance within the northerly flow expected to approach the region, bringing slightly higher chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly north of I-10. With the later arrival time, now expecting highs to reach the mid to upper 90s north of I-10, lower to mid 90s further south. As the upper level disturbance moves across the region Monday, chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase to 50-70% across the area. Preliminary rainfall estimates around 0.3 to 0.6 inches along and north of I-10, much less further south. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall for most of the area except Lower Acadiana for the Day 3 outlook beginning at 7 AM Monday and continuing for the remainder of the day. Also, there is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of Severe thunderstorms outlined across Inland Southeast Texas.

08/DML

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
The longterm period starts on the heels of a frontal boundary moving through the region. Limited, low end rain chances are possible as trof axis is exiting eastern Louisiana, pushing the boundary into coastal waters. Latest guidance has shown up slightly lower in QPF which points to some lowering confidence of how much coverage will manifest Tuesday.

Wednesday, high pressure develops over the central US where it will stay through the end of the work week. This feature will send another reinforcing push of dry air across the area. The combination of high and dry air mass will keep the remainder of the longterm period dry.

High temperatures on Tuesday will depend heavily on areal coverage of showers/storms during daylight hours. With latest guidance coming in slightly drier, it stands to reason that daytime temps might not fall as far as previous thinking. Currently on Tuesday, some areas may see highs in the upper 80s while most everyone else will see low 90s. Wednesday and beyond, under high pressure influence and north/northwest flow, expect highs in the low 90s area-wide.
Dewpoints in the 50s and 60s should make for a comfortable, albeit still warm, end of September.

11/Calhoun

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)

Intermittent MVFR visibility to 3SM possible through 13z at AEX/LFT/ARA due to patchy ground fog. VCTS at LCH/LFT/ARA by 18z this afternoon, VCSH elsewhere. With lower chances of SHRA/TSRA under 30%, will not include any PROB30 or TEMPO groups for TSRA. Expect the SHRA/TSRA across the area to diminish by 00z, with VFR expected.
East southeast winds 4-5 kts or less this morning, becoming southeast by 14z, and southerly around 6-8 kts by 18z, diminishing to 4-5 kts or less after 01z.

08/DML

MARINE
Surface high pressure over the Southeastern U.S. will keep light to occasionally moderate onshore flow through early next week.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected this weekend. Higher chances can be expected Monday as a stronger upper level disturbance and cool front moves south across the region. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday and Wednesday as the frontal boundary stalls across the coastal waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 98 71 96 72 / 20 10 30 40 LCH 94 75 93 74 / 30 10 20 20 LFT 95 74 94 74 / 30 10 20 10 BPT 94 75 93 74 / 20 10 20 20

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Eugene Island
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Sat -- 12:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:10 AM CDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 03:07 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:22 PM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eugene Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Island
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Sat -- 12:09 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:29 AM CDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 03:07 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:46 PM CDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

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