Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Patterson, LA
November 30, 2023 1:03 AM CST (07:03 UTC)
Sunrise 6:38AM Sunset 5:04PM Moonrise 8:04PM Moonset 9:55AM
GMZ436 Atchafalaya And East Cote Blanche Bays- 920 Pm Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft exercise caution in effect from 9 am cst Thursday through Thursday afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Bay and inland waters rough. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Bay and inland waters rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
.small craft exercise caution in effect from 9 am cst Thursday through Thursday afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Bay and inland waters rough. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Bay and inland waters rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 920 Pm Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis..
tonight, winds will increase as high pressure moves east and low pressure starts to move northwest of the area. On Thursday, widespread showers and Thunderstorms will develop as the above- mentioned low will be pulling large amounts of moisture from the bay of campeche across the region. In response, gale watches and small craft advisories have been issued for various portions of the coastal waters, in effect through Thursday night. In addition, waves will be a major concern with guidance showing wave heights up to 11 feet in the outer coastal waters. Conditions will improve on Friday as initially, low pressure moves away from the area and eventually pulls a front across the northwest gulf of mexico, which will swing winds around to a northerly direction for the weekend.
Synopsis..
tonight, winds will increase as high pressure moves east and low pressure starts to move northwest of the area. On Thursday, widespread showers and Thunderstorms will develop as the above- mentioned low will be pulling large amounts of moisture from the bay of campeche across the region. In response, gale watches and small craft advisories have been issued for various portions of the coastal waters, in effect through Thursday night. In addition, waves will be a major concern with guidance showing wave heights up to 11 feet in the outer coastal waters. Conditions will improve on Friday as initially, low pressure moves away from the area and eventually pulls a front across the northwest gulf of mexico, which will swing winds around to a northerly direction for the weekend.
Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 300540 AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 912 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Only update to the forecast at this time is to go ahead and issue a Wind Advisory for tomorrow from 11 am to midnight, and this may need to be extended for eastern portions beyond midnight. Latest guidance still shows high probability of strong southerly gradient winds starting by late morning. Sustained speeds in the 20 to 25 mph range with gusts to 40 mph will meet the criteria for a wind advisory.
Otherwise, remainder of the forecast looks to be on track.
Rua
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 335 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern CONUS and ridging wswwd, keeping a serly low-level flow in place across the region. Water vapor imagery shows a general wrly mid/upper-level flow now in place aloft, while a series of disturbances ejecting out ahead of a Pacific storm system are noted upstream. Visible imagery/sfc obs show plenty of mid/upper cloud cover streaming overhead. Observations also show temps again in the 60s this afternoon. Regional 88Ds, for the time being, are PPINE, although like yesterday, marsh fire activity is ongoing.
Our long awaited heavy rainfall/severe event is just about here.
A deepening onshore flow will maintain a steady remoistening of the area airmass, with forecast soundings advertising mean RH values to 90 percent and PWAT values climbing to 1.8 inches, which exceed the 90th percentile per SPC climo, by Thursday evening. As lift from the initial approaching disturbance overspreads the forecast area, widespread shower activity with occasional thunderstorms will gradually spread from an initial onset over our TX zones to coverage over the entire forecast area by tomorrow afternoon. Given the high moisture content with good dynamics and diffluent flow aloft, potentially heavy rains (mean QPFs today have jumped back up to the 2 to 3 inch range with isolated near 4 inch amounts for all but the extreme sern zones) are expected with this system and thus WPC has maintained a marginal risk for excessive rain for the entire area for Thursday/Thursday night.
The other concern is the potential for severe weather, starting tomorrow afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours.
Forecast soundings continue to indicate strong winds from the sfc up through at least 700 millibars (potentially 50+ knots h8 to h7), along with reasonable lapse rates and shear. As usual, the main problem for severe initiation looks to be how much instability can be worked up given good cloud cover which could limit low-level heating/destabilization. Latest SPC update still has interior sern TX in an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather for Thursday afternoon/evening, with good helicity values leading to a definite threat for tornadic activity. The remainder of sern TX as well as wrn LA are in a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
while e-cntl/s-cntl LA remain in just a marginal risk.
A couple of additional forecast points for tomorrow. First, we will likely need a Wind Advisory across the area as sfc winds are progged to increase to 20-25 knots with gusts possibly exceeding 35 knots. Second, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Cameron/Jefferson coastal areas due to high tidal levels brought on by the strong onshore flow. East of these areas, guidance wasn't quite so bullish on coastal flood potential...persons with interests near the coast east of the advised areas, especially Vermilion Parish, should stay tuned in case an advisory is required later for their area.
The initial wave of convection is progged to depart the sern zones late Thursday night as the attendant shortwave ejects newd away from the area, although small POPs do linger through the day on Friday as remaining moisture, a sfc boundary and daytime heating could help fire a few showers/storms.
Rain chances increase again Friday night though with the approach of the next shortwave aloft along with potential low pressure development along the old boundary.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
A long wave trough will still be over the Rockies at the start of the weekend with a southwest flow aloft over SE TX and LA. Moisture will continue to stream in from the Pacific on the subtropical jet keeping rain in the forecast for Saturday and into Sunday. Chances are expected to be highest across lower Acadiana and the coastal waters which will be closest to a stalled frontal boundary and have the best lift.
The upper trough axis is expected to shift east into Sunday shifting rain chances. Guidance is lagging a bit and keeping rain possible into Sunday night, however any appreciable accumulation should have ended Saturday night or early Sunday.
A slightly cooler air mass will filter in behind the cold front for Sunday into Monday. Dry weather is anticipated early to mid week once the trough shifts east.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Little change in thinking has occurred between the 00 and 06Z TAF package. However, winds are taking longer to increase and turn to the south and southeast than previous thinking. Scattered instances of higher gusts to around 15 knots have been observed in the area, so speeds were not decreased, but 06 to 09Z vectors were adjusted to the east-southeast to match with observed winds.
This TAF package and discussion will detail the best idea of how a robust frontal system will impact the region tomorrow.
Strong surface high pressure to the northeast of the region will slowly move eastward overnight. This shift, along with developing low pressure over the central US, will cause winds to turn more to a southeast vector as well as increase on a tightening pressure gradient between 06 and 10Z. These elevated winds will lift northward a warm front into southeast Texas and Louisiana, causing ceilings to gradually fall through the early morning hours. MVFR ceilings and light showers should start spreading into the region from southwest to northeast starting around 07Z at BPT and reaching LFT around daybreak.
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, as well as sustained strong southeast winds with gusts 20 to 30 knots, are then expected from 12Z to the end of the period (and beyond.) All hazards will be possible with storms including localized damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Winds near thunderstorms can become volatile. Ceilings will likely fall to IFR with showers and storms.
11/Calhoun
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 41 66 57 76 / 20 100 100 20 LCH 50 70 63 74 / 40 90 100 30 LFT 49 70 63 79 / 10 90 90 40 BPT 54 71 63 77 / 40 100 90 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday night for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for LAZ073-074.
TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday night for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for TXZ615.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ430-432-450-452.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ435-436-455.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ470.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight Thursday night to 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ470.
Gale Watch from 9 AM CST Thursday through Thursday evening for GMZ470.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for GMZ472.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight Thursday night to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ472.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for GMZ472.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ475.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 912 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Only update to the forecast at this time is to go ahead and issue a Wind Advisory for tomorrow from 11 am to midnight, and this may need to be extended for eastern portions beyond midnight. Latest guidance still shows high probability of strong southerly gradient winds starting by late morning. Sustained speeds in the 20 to 25 mph range with gusts to 40 mph will meet the criteria for a wind advisory.
Otherwise, remainder of the forecast looks to be on track.
Rua
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 335 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern CONUS and ridging wswwd, keeping a serly low-level flow in place across the region. Water vapor imagery shows a general wrly mid/upper-level flow now in place aloft, while a series of disturbances ejecting out ahead of a Pacific storm system are noted upstream. Visible imagery/sfc obs show plenty of mid/upper cloud cover streaming overhead. Observations also show temps again in the 60s this afternoon. Regional 88Ds, for the time being, are PPINE, although like yesterday, marsh fire activity is ongoing.
Our long awaited heavy rainfall/severe event is just about here.
A deepening onshore flow will maintain a steady remoistening of the area airmass, with forecast soundings advertising mean RH values to 90 percent and PWAT values climbing to 1.8 inches, which exceed the 90th percentile per SPC climo, by Thursday evening. As lift from the initial approaching disturbance overspreads the forecast area, widespread shower activity with occasional thunderstorms will gradually spread from an initial onset over our TX zones to coverage over the entire forecast area by tomorrow afternoon. Given the high moisture content with good dynamics and diffluent flow aloft, potentially heavy rains (mean QPFs today have jumped back up to the 2 to 3 inch range with isolated near 4 inch amounts for all but the extreme sern zones) are expected with this system and thus WPC has maintained a marginal risk for excessive rain for the entire area for Thursday/Thursday night.
The other concern is the potential for severe weather, starting tomorrow afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours.
Forecast soundings continue to indicate strong winds from the sfc up through at least 700 millibars (potentially 50+ knots h8 to h7), along with reasonable lapse rates and shear. As usual, the main problem for severe initiation looks to be how much instability can be worked up given good cloud cover which could limit low-level heating/destabilization. Latest SPC update still has interior sern TX in an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather for Thursday afternoon/evening, with good helicity values leading to a definite threat for tornadic activity. The remainder of sern TX as well as wrn LA are in a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
while e-cntl/s-cntl LA remain in just a marginal risk.
A couple of additional forecast points for tomorrow. First, we will likely need a Wind Advisory across the area as sfc winds are progged to increase to 20-25 knots with gusts possibly exceeding 35 knots. Second, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Cameron/Jefferson coastal areas due to high tidal levels brought on by the strong onshore flow. East of these areas, guidance wasn't quite so bullish on coastal flood potential...persons with interests near the coast east of the advised areas, especially Vermilion Parish, should stay tuned in case an advisory is required later for their area.
The initial wave of convection is progged to depart the sern zones late Thursday night as the attendant shortwave ejects newd away from the area, although small POPs do linger through the day on Friday as remaining moisture, a sfc boundary and daytime heating could help fire a few showers/storms.
Rain chances increase again Friday night though with the approach of the next shortwave aloft along with potential low pressure development along the old boundary.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
A long wave trough will still be over the Rockies at the start of the weekend with a southwest flow aloft over SE TX and LA. Moisture will continue to stream in from the Pacific on the subtropical jet keeping rain in the forecast for Saturday and into Sunday. Chances are expected to be highest across lower Acadiana and the coastal waters which will be closest to a stalled frontal boundary and have the best lift.
The upper trough axis is expected to shift east into Sunday shifting rain chances. Guidance is lagging a bit and keeping rain possible into Sunday night, however any appreciable accumulation should have ended Saturday night or early Sunday.
A slightly cooler air mass will filter in behind the cold front for Sunday into Monday. Dry weather is anticipated early to mid week once the trough shifts east.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Little change in thinking has occurred between the 00 and 06Z TAF package. However, winds are taking longer to increase and turn to the south and southeast than previous thinking. Scattered instances of higher gusts to around 15 knots have been observed in the area, so speeds were not decreased, but 06 to 09Z vectors were adjusted to the east-southeast to match with observed winds.
This TAF package and discussion will detail the best idea of how a robust frontal system will impact the region tomorrow.
Strong surface high pressure to the northeast of the region will slowly move eastward overnight. This shift, along with developing low pressure over the central US, will cause winds to turn more to a southeast vector as well as increase on a tightening pressure gradient between 06 and 10Z. These elevated winds will lift northward a warm front into southeast Texas and Louisiana, causing ceilings to gradually fall through the early morning hours. MVFR ceilings and light showers should start spreading into the region from southwest to northeast starting around 07Z at BPT and reaching LFT around daybreak.
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, as well as sustained strong southeast winds with gusts 20 to 30 knots, are then expected from 12Z to the end of the period (and beyond.) All hazards will be possible with storms including localized damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Winds near thunderstorms can become volatile. Ceilings will likely fall to IFR with showers and storms.
11/Calhoun
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 41 66 57 76 / 20 100 100 20 LCH 50 70 63 74 / 40 90 100 30 LFT 49 70 63 79 / 10 90 90 40 BPT 54 71 63 77 / 40 100 90 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday night for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for LAZ073-074.
TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday night for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for TXZ615.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ430-432-450-452.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ435-436-455.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ470.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight Thursday night to 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ470.
Gale Watch from 9 AM CST Thursday through Thursday evening for GMZ470.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for GMZ472.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight Thursday night to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ472.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for GMZ472.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ475.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| EINL1 | 0 mi | 46 min | E 15G | 55°F | 57°F | 30.13 | 51°F | |
| TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA | 22 mi | 46 min | E 5.1G | 52°F | 59°F | 30.17 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
No data
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPTN HARRY P WILLIAMS MEMORIAL,LA | 24 sm | 67 min | E 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 43°F | 71% | 30.17 |
Wind History from P92
(wind in knots)Eugene Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:40 AM CST Sunrise
Wed -- 08:59 AM CST -0.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:02 AM CST Moonset
Wed -- 05:06 PM CST Sunset
Wed -- 07:05 PM CST Moonrise
Wed -- 07:55 PM CST 2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:40 AM CST Sunrise
Wed -- 08:59 AM CST -0.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:02 AM CST Moonset
Wed -- 05:06 PM CST Sunset
Wed -- 07:05 PM CST Moonrise
Wed -- 07:55 PM CST 2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Eugene Island, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.9 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| -0.2 |
| 8 am |
| -0.5 |
| 9 am |
| -0.7 |
| 10 am |
| -0.6 |
| 11 am |
| -0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.1 |
Shell Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:40 AM CST Sunrise
Wed -- 09:02 AM CST Moonset
Wed -- 10:23 AM CST -0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:06 PM CST Sunset
Wed -- 07:05 PM CST Moonrise
Wed -- 09:14 PM CST 1.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:40 AM CST Sunrise
Wed -- 09:02 AM CST Moonset
Wed -- 10:23 AM CST -0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:06 PM CST Sunset
Wed -- 07:05 PM CST Moonrise
Wed -- 09:14 PM CST 1.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| -0 |
| 9 am |
| -0.3 |
| 10 am |
| -0.5 |
| 11 am |
| -0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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