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GMZ455 Coastal Waters From Lower Atchafalaya River To Intracoastal City La Out 20 Nm- 233 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm cst this evening...
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late this evening and overnight. Seas around 2 feet this evening, then 1 foot or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 233 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
winds will continue their decrease this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient behind a departing cold front relaxes. However, north winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4 to 6 ft can still be expected until 9pm, Thus a small craft advisory remains in effect for 0 to 60 nm.
conditions will further improve into Monday as high pressure builds in overhead. Winds and seas will increase by Tuesday night and remain elevated through Thursday as a tightening pressure gradient produces a prolonged and strong easterly fetch across the northern gulf of mexico.
small craft should begin exercising caution Tuesday morning, with advisories potentially needed starting in the afternoon.

FXUS64 KLCH 102123 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 323 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Blustery conditions brought on by last night's cold front are finally starting to subside as the pressure gradient behind the front relaxes. Winds do remain fairly breezy at this hour with a few gusts in the mix, but they're much lower than the windy conditions we all woke up to.

Northwest flow aloft will continue into tomorrow, maintaining a fetch of cold arctic air over top the region. This will keep the cold front airmass from moderating too fast through the short term period.

Speaking of cold air... The atmosphere is coming together for a very cold night tonight. High pressure will set up on top of southeast Texas and Louisiana overnight, keeping skies crystal clear and tamping down winds to calm. Several hours of clear, calm conditions within a cold airmass of dewpoints in the 20s will maximize radiational cooling and cause temperatures to fall more than expected. Due to this, tonight's forecast low temperatures were pulled down by several degrees: upper 20s for inland areas to low 30s along the coastline.

There is a low-end, low confidence chance for a Hard Freeze tonight, primarily for central Louisiana parishes. A Hard Freeze is any temperature at or below 25F. To break down the chances, Rapides has around a 15 % chance to hit this criteria, while Beauregard's chances are about 5 %. Chances are less than 5% south of a line from De Quincy east to Opelousas. Because of the low confidence that this will happen, a Hard Freeze Warning has not been issued. However, if temperature trends start cooling faster or more than expected, a warning may be issued. For those with outdoor plants or fixtures sensitive to this cold, it is not a bad idea to prepare.

Area-wide frost can also be expected after midnight.

High pressure moves overhead Monday, with another day of clear skies and cool temperatures expected. Winds turn to the east later in the day, a new fetch driving higher dewpoints in the 30s into Louisiana and Texas. The high pressure slides eastward overnight into Tuesday morning; its absence allowing for scattered clouds to return.
Increased moisture and cloud cover will keep Tuesday morning from getting so cold and temps in the low 30s inland, mid 30s to low 40s near the coastline, can be expected along with areas of frost once again.

11/Calhoun

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

For Wednesday, a large cold surface high expected to build southeast across the Central and Southern U.S. bringing another shot of cooler air across the region. Lows in the lower to mid 30s across Central Louisiana and mid to upper 30s further south and west. Highs in the lower 60s.

Thursday through the weekend begins a rather complicated progressive and unsettled weather pattern. The large surface high expected to persist over the Eastern U.S. through Saturday. This is expected to keep a generally east to east northeast surface flow over the region. Winds across the Northern Gulf of Mexico projected to be quite strong with a long easterly fetch, significantly increasing seas by Thursday night well through the weekend. Meanwhile the mid to upper level pattern showing good agreement that a significant closed mid to upper level low over the Desert Southwest Thursday to begin moving east southeast over Northern Mexico/Texas Thursday and Friday. After Friday, models diverge with the GFS keeping this low moving northeast along the east coast, or the ECMWF painting a merger and vertically stacked surface to upper low over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Extremely low confidence.

For precipitation, looks like the low latitude trajectory of the upper lows will develop a surface low (or lows) over the Central Gulf of Mexico, and keep the heaviest precipitation south of the region. At this time, the best chances of showers will be Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Temperatures in the 40s for lows and 60s for highs during most of the period.

08/DML

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Gusty northerly winds will soon diminish this afternoon as the pressure gradient behind a departing cold front relaxes. Northerly winds should persist through sundown when high pressure slides overhead and winds become calm. Variable, light winds will then develop tomorrow morning.

Clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

11/Calhoun

MARINE
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Winds will continue their decrease this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient behind a departing cold front relaxes.
However, north winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4 to 6 ft can still be expected until 9PM, thus a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for 0 to 60 nm.

Conditions will further improve into Monday as high pressure builds in overhead. Winds and seas will increase by Tuesday night and remain elevated through Thursday as a tightening pressure gradient produces a prolonged and strong easterly fetch across the Northern Gulf of Mexico.

Small craft should begin exercising caution Tuesday morning, with Advisories potentially needed starting in the afternoon.

11

CLIMATE
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

It is not likely that any records get broken tonight. Low temperature records for 12/11 are as follows:

Temp(F) / Year Lake Charles 28 / 1995* Beaumont 28 / 1958* Alexandria 20 / 1898 Lafayette 23 / 1898 New Iberia 27 / 1995

* Astrisk denotes a record which tied itself previously.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 27 58 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 32 59 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 32 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 32 61 43 65 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ450-452- 455-470-472.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ475.

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Eugene Island
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Sun -- 04:27 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM CST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:49 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 03:15 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:44 PM CST     1.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:07 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:47 PM CST     1.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:07 PM CST     1.69 feet High Tide
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