Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Patterson, LA

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Breezy, warm and humid weather is on tap for the next couple of days as the region will reside between an amplifying ridge over the SE CONUS and an elongated upper trof to the west. Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected, with overnight/morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds will flirt with advisory criteria the next couple of afternoons, with sustained values between 15-20 mph and peak gusts of 30-35 mph possible.

The upper level trof will be in the process of filling as it translates eastward, with the final act coming as a basal shortwave rounds and ejects across the SRN Plains and Mid MS River Valley on SUN. This will erode the western flank of the SE CONUS ridge and allow a frontal boundary to approach the area late SUN. FCST soundings in the airmass ahead of the boundary will support convection, so anticipate at least some pre-frontal shower and thunderstorm activity as broad lift increases across the area.
Otherwise, the weakening frontal zone will serve as the primary focus for convection as it oozes into the area SUN night into MON.
With the attendant shortwave tracking well to our northwest and pulling farther away to the north with time, shear progs are fairly marginal at their peak and are rather poor by the time the front gets here. Think the latest SPC Day 2 outlook of no higher than a MRGL risk for parts of our area SUN looks about right. Elevated rain chances will continue into MON with the boundary meandering about.
While temperatures will be moderated a bit by the presence of additional cloud cover and rain, mainly across northern zones, the front will not usher in a big airmass change.

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LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

What remains of the frontal boundary is expected to retreat back to the north on TUE, but the upper level pattern will have evolved into one of quasi-zonal westerly flow. Absent the inhibiting effect of the ridge and amid a lingering moist airmass, daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the week, augmented by at least one if not more disturbances translating through the westerly flow aloft.

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AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR to MVFR ceilings will continue through this afternoon and tonight. Winds will be gusty this afternoon, drop down a little tonight, and become gusty again Sunday morning after sunrise.

MARINE
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A tight gradient between high pressure to the east and low pressure over the Plains is bringing about a prolonged period of long fetch across the northern Gulf. This modest southerly flow will continue to result in elevated seas into early Monday. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for all 0 to 60 nm waters through early Sunday morning. The next chance of rainfall comes Sunday when a frontal boundary nears the region, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday through Monday.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 85 68 85 67 / 0 0 40 50 LCH 82 71 83 70 / 0 0 30 30 LFT 83 70 84 70 / 0 0 20 20 BPT 83 72 83 69 / 0 0 50 50

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ044-045-055-073- 074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.