Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 3:34 PM   Moonset 2:47 AM

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GMZ455 Coastal Waters From Lower Atchafalaya River To Intracoastal City La Out 20 Nm- 300 Pm Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 7 seconds. Monday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 2 seconds and south 1 foot at 7 seconds. Monday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Tuesday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 3 seconds. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Thursday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Friday night - South winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet.

GMZ400 300 Pm Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - Light onshore flow and low seas are expected through Monday with no precipitation. Winds and seas are forecast to increase by Tuesday due to the pressure gradient increasing between surface high pressure to the east and low pressure across the plains.

FXUS64 KLCH 192026 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 326 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)

Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge across the Gulf States northeast through the Great Lakes. Winds are light from the east or variable around 6 mph or less across the area. Visible satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus across our region.
Afternoon temperatures have reached the upper 80s to lower 90s.

For tonight, expect mostly clear skies expected with nearly calm winds. Patchy fog likely by daybreak, but not expecting dense fog at this time.

For Monday through Tuesday night, a dry northwest flow aloft expected between the mid to upper level trough over the East Coast and a mid to upper level ridge over Northern Mexico/South Texas/Western Gulf of Mexico. Not expecting any precipitation, but continued above normal temperatures. Expect overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Maximum heat index values in the lower to mid 90s expected each afternoon.

08/DML

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Saturday)

The long range continues with mainly dry, warm weather at the surface across SETX and SWLA. Large region of upper level convergence and subsidence shifts off the Carolina coast while maintaining broad ridging SW across the central Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile upstream, the subtropical jet extends along Baja curving NE over the Ohio to merge with the upstream pattern near the Great Lakes region. A deep surface low will occlude over the Midwest toward the western Great Lakes while extending across the central / southern Plains into North Texas. The Low pressure center then fills over Eastern Canada leaving partially detached frontal boundary, becoming stationary over the southern Plains and TN Valley. This frontal boundary, which guidance continues to indicate resting above the ARKLATEX region, will serve as a focal area for any organized showers and thunderstorms through Friday morning.

Locally, chances of POPs remain too low to keep in the forecast, however, as this period comes into the short range outlook, the potential for isolated, more airmass based, thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. That said, low level subsidence will keep a cap in place that would take a robust perturbation or sea breeze to kick off any activity beyond cumulus. By Saturday, the upper level pattern becomes a little more unsettled with regards to little perturbations aloft, however, the overall zonal flow does not add much room for major changes unless guidance brings about a more organized shortwave south. Worth noting the lower troposphere begins to show more variability on the pressure pattern which may support Isolated activity, but there are no signals strong enough to put that potential in the forecast right now with confidence.

Kowalski/30



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)

VFR expected this afternoon and evening, with variable winds 5 kts at AEX, southeast at 6-8 kts at southern terminals. Fog potential a little less overnight, with most terminals possibly having intermittent MVFR visibilities between 09-13z Monday. Otherwise, southeast winds around 7-10 kts at all sites after 14z.

08/DML

MARINE

Light onshore flow and low seas are expected through Monday with no precipitation. Winds and seas are forecast to increase by Tuesday due to the pressure gradient increasing between surface high pressure to the east and low pressure across the Plains.

08/DML

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 67 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 70 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 71 91 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 72 89 74 89 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Eugene Island
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Sun -- 02:46 AM CDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:10 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:48 AM CDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:15 PM CDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:36 PM CDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eugene Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Lawma, Amerada Pass, Louisiana, Tide feet

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