Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for China Grove, TX

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Key Messages:

- A level 1 and 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday night into early Easter morning with large hail and damaging winds as the primary severe weather concerns

- Daily rain and thunderstorm chances for mid to late next week; could be organized at times with the opportunity for locally heavy rain and/or a few strong to severe storms

- Continued above average warmth

The greatest lift for rain and thunderstorms will arrive during the latter half of Saturday into Easter Sunday morning as an upper level low moves across the Texas panhandle into Oklahoma and a cold front advances southward into and across South Central Texas. Thunderstorm activity should initially develop Saturday afternoon, primarily across the San Angelo CWA to near the Red River. However, we'll need to closely monitor the capping inversion from the Rio Grande Plains through the Hill Country late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. While most CAMS through 00Z do not show any initiation across our region, the FV3 and RRFS does show potential for a few isolated discrete cells in that timeframe from the Rio Grande into the Hill Country. If any cells do develop this early on Saturday, they could become severe. The primary window for storms across our region still remains from the overnight into Easter Sunday morning.
The afternoon/evening convection through the San Angelo area will likely congeal into a squall line after sunset and advances southward into our region. This line reaches portions of the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau by or around the midnight hour.
Activity then gradually shifts east-southeast to the I-35 corridor just prior to or around sunrise and into the coastal plains later in the morning beyond sunrise. Majority of the model guidance indicate that the line likely weakens with east-southeastward progress where both severe weather parameters decline and where the surface front may also undercut the convection. This is delineated well on the SPC convective outlook showing the level 2 of 5 risk for the Rio Grande through the Hill Country, a level 1 of 5 risk in the I-35 corridor and the general thunder risk across the coastal plains. The main hazards with severe storms would be damaging winds and large hail.
Frequent lightning and locally heavy rain be possible as well.

The rain mainly shifts east and southeast of majority of our region by Easter Afternoon. The main exception could be across our east- southeastern most counties within the coastal plains where some activity could linger as the front stalls across the CRP and HGX CWAs. This may remain the case Monday into Monday night as well but most locations in our area stays rain free through that period. A daily chance (30 to 50%) for rain and thunderstorms returns to all locations during mid to late week as occasional disturbances embedded within the west-southwesterly flow aloft advances from Mexico into the area. Additionally, mesoscale outflow boundaries could push into the region, providing some additional focused lift for activity. Area instability tries to build each afternoon and could help result in some organized convection, with any sufficient deep layer shear. The best potential could setup along the Rio Grande with any storms coming off the Mexico terrain, such as the Serranias del Burros. The rain is welcome and will be beneficial with localized amounts over the next 7 days in excess of 1 to 2 inches where the heaviest thunderstorms and the greatest number of thunderstorms are able to overlap.

Temperatures remain above average through the period with the majority of the afternoons in the mid to upper 80s and into the 90s along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows will remain common in the 60s as well. The slightly cooler stretch within the long term occurs Easter Sunday through Monday morning behind the front where the afternoon high and overnight low trends about 5 degrees lower.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

MVFR ceilings are expected to fill in throughout south central Texas, but elevated winds between 20-30 kts at times will prevent ceilings from bottoming out. Overall, wind gusts will remain in the 20-30 kt range through all of Friday, before finally letting up somewhat late Friday evening or early Saturday morning. Otherwise, expect VFR ceilings to return as soon as 15-17Z Friday at all sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 91 70 84 67 / 0 10 50 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 70 85 66 / 0 10 40 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 70 86 68 / 0 10 40 40 Burnet Muni Airport 88 70 82 62 / 10 30 50 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 97 73 92 65 / 0 50 30 80 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 70 84 65 / 10 20 50 50 Hondo Muni Airport 94 70 86 65 / 0 30 40 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 91 69 84 66 / 0 10 40 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 70 87 69 / 0 0 20 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 71 85 67 / 0 10 40 50 Stinson Muni Airport 94 72 87 68 / 0 10 40 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.