Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for China Grove, TX
February 17, 2025 5:49 AM CST (11:49 UTC) Change Location
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Area Discussion for Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 171056 AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 456 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1211 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Key Messages:
- Cool and dry today - Fog and patchy drizzle developing Tuesday morning and scattered showers east of I-35 Tuesday afternoon - Strong, arctic cold front enters the Hill Country by early Tuesday evening
A cold start this morning, with lows forecast to bottom out in the low to mid 30s for most locations. High cirrus is forecast to increase later this afternoon. Southeast winds resume today, gusty at times this afternoon along the Rio Grande. High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the Hill Country and northern I-35 corridor, to mid to upper 60s Rio Grande, southern I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains.
Low level moisture quickly increases late this evening leading to low stratus developing across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor, then expanding in coverage overnight and into Tuesday morning. Dew points in the 20s and 30s today modify back into the 50s overnight and into Tuesday morning. Fog and patchy drizzle is forecast to develop Tuesday morning along and east of the I-35 corridor.
Scattered showers are indicated to develop by HRRR members and global models east of I-35 and I-37 Tuesday afternoon, ahead of the strong arctic cold front. High temperatures Tuesday are tricky, with a large spread in the guidance indicated across near and east of the I-35 corridor where cloud cover persists. Currently the forecast high temperatures Tuesday ranges from mid 60s across northeast areas to around 80 along the Rio Grande. The strong arctic cold front should be entering the northern Hill Country early Tuesday evening.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1211 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Key Messages...
- Strong cold front moves across the local area on Tuesday evening bringing a much colder air that stays for several days
- The much colder air that spreads across South Central Texas is likely to trigger Cold Weather Advisories or Extreme Cold Warnings for Wednesday and Thursday mornings
The strong cold front moves across the Hill Country around 6 pm to 7 pm CST Tuesday evening. There is a 20 to 40 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms to affect areas along and east of Highway 77 ahead of the frontal boundary. In the wake of the frontal boundary, a much colder air mass spreads across South Central Texas with overnight lows/Wednesday morning lows in the teens and lower 20s across the Hill Country, upper 20s to lower 30s along the I-35 corridor and lower 30s across the coastal plains. The strong cold front passage comes with strong winds from the north (10 to 20 mph and gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible) making temperatures feel (wind chill) much colder and we are talking about single digits to teens to mid 20s for Wednesday morning. It is likely that a Cold Weather Advisory will be issued for Wednesday morning later today or during the Tuesday morning weather forecast package. We can even consider a Extreme Cold Warning if future model guidance come even colder than tonight.
The colder airmass is in store for several days with Wednesday's highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s over most places and up to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande.
Clear skies to partly cloudy skies and light to moderate northerly winds are in store for another very cold night overnight/Thursday morning across South Central Texas. Projected lows range from the teens across the Hill Country including the Austin metro area and vicinity and southern Edwards Plateau to 20s across the rest of the local area with the exception of lower 30s along the Rio Grande. The northerly winds are likely to stay around the 10 to 15 mph range across parts of the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and along and east of Interstate 35 resulting in wind chill values in the single digits to teens to lower 20s across South Central Texas. With that said, another Cold Weather Advisory or Extreme Cold Warning or a combination will be likely issued in near future weather forecast packages.
Thursday's highs only to reach the mid to upper 30s across the Hill Country with 40s elsewhere.
The weather pattern starts to change on Thursday night into Friday as zonal flow dominates the local area and 850mb winds shift to the south. This change helps overnight lows on Friday morning to be a warmer than the previous couple of nights. However, we still forecasting lows in the mid to upper 20s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, lower 30s across the I-35 corridor and lower to mid 30s across the Rio Grande.
As the morning progresses, there is a slight chance (20 percent) for rain showers across parts of the I-35 corridor and coastal plains as temperatures likely range from mid to upper 30s. At this time, we calling for cold rain, however, monitoring closely model guidance and trends in case of future outputs to be colder which bring the wintry mix topic to the picture.
Once the evening comes around on Friday, temperatures go down into the upper 20s to the mid 30s. A surface low shows up developing across the northwest Gulf from Friday into Saturday morning. The GFS keeps most of the activity across the coastal plains while the ECMWF depicts more activity over a good portion of the local area. We will continue to monitor closely this setup for the potential of wintry mix during that period.
Finally warms up into the mid to upper 50s on Saturday afternoon with all precipitation being rain. A Pacific front could push across the local area on Saturday night or Sunday. Dry weather conditions are expected for Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 441 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
VFR conditions are expected for all local airports through at least 06Z Tuesday. Increased moisture arrives and cigs and vbsys going down to LIFR overnight into Tuesday morning. North to northeast winds shift to the east and southeast this afternoon and continue through Tuesday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 61 51 65 27 / 0 10 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 50 65 27 / 0 10 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 63 51 69 30 / 0 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 61 50 66 23 / 0 0 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 50 81 33 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 49 65 25 / 0 10 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 65 50 73 31 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 62 50 67 28 / 0 10 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 62 50 67 30 / 0 10 40 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 63 52 71 31 / 0 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 65 53 72 34 / 0 10 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 456 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1211 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Key Messages:
- Cool and dry today - Fog and patchy drizzle developing Tuesday morning and scattered showers east of I-35 Tuesday afternoon - Strong, arctic cold front enters the Hill Country by early Tuesday evening
A cold start this morning, with lows forecast to bottom out in the low to mid 30s for most locations. High cirrus is forecast to increase later this afternoon. Southeast winds resume today, gusty at times this afternoon along the Rio Grande. High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the Hill Country and northern I-35 corridor, to mid to upper 60s Rio Grande, southern I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains.
Low level moisture quickly increases late this evening leading to low stratus developing across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor, then expanding in coverage overnight and into Tuesday morning. Dew points in the 20s and 30s today modify back into the 50s overnight and into Tuesday morning. Fog and patchy drizzle is forecast to develop Tuesday morning along and east of the I-35 corridor.
Scattered showers are indicated to develop by HRRR members and global models east of I-35 and I-37 Tuesday afternoon, ahead of the strong arctic cold front. High temperatures Tuesday are tricky, with a large spread in the guidance indicated across near and east of the I-35 corridor where cloud cover persists. Currently the forecast high temperatures Tuesday ranges from mid 60s across northeast areas to around 80 along the Rio Grande. The strong arctic cold front should be entering the northern Hill Country early Tuesday evening.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1211 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Key Messages...
- Strong cold front moves across the local area on Tuesday evening bringing a much colder air that stays for several days
- The much colder air that spreads across South Central Texas is likely to trigger Cold Weather Advisories or Extreme Cold Warnings for Wednesday and Thursday mornings
The strong cold front moves across the Hill Country around 6 pm to 7 pm CST Tuesday evening. There is a 20 to 40 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms to affect areas along and east of Highway 77 ahead of the frontal boundary. In the wake of the frontal boundary, a much colder air mass spreads across South Central Texas with overnight lows/Wednesday morning lows in the teens and lower 20s across the Hill Country, upper 20s to lower 30s along the I-35 corridor and lower 30s across the coastal plains. The strong cold front passage comes with strong winds from the north (10 to 20 mph and gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible) making temperatures feel (wind chill) much colder and we are talking about single digits to teens to mid 20s for Wednesday morning. It is likely that a Cold Weather Advisory will be issued for Wednesday morning later today or during the Tuesday morning weather forecast package. We can even consider a Extreme Cold Warning if future model guidance come even colder than tonight.
The colder airmass is in store for several days with Wednesday's highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s over most places and up to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande.
Clear skies to partly cloudy skies and light to moderate northerly winds are in store for another very cold night overnight/Thursday morning across South Central Texas. Projected lows range from the teens across the Hill Country including the Austin metro area and vicinity and southern Edwards Plateau to 20s across the rest of the local area with the exception of lower 30s along the Rio Grande. The northerly winds are likely to stay around the 10 to 15 mph range across parts of the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and along and east of Interstate 35 resulting in wind chill values in the single digits to teens to lower 20s across South Central Texas. With that said, another Cold Weather Advisory or Extreme Cold Warning or a combination will be likely issued in near future weather forecast packages.
Thursday's highs only to reach the mid to upper 30s across the Hill Country with 40s elsewhere.
The weather pattern starts to change on Thursday night into Friday as zonal flow dominates the local area and 850mb winds shift to the south. This change helps overnight lows on Friday morning to be a warmer than the previous couple of nights. However, we still forecasting lows in the mid to upper 20s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, lower 30s across the I-35 corridor and lower to mid 30s across the Rio Grande.
As the morning progresses, there is a slight chance (20 percent) for rain showers across parts of the I-35 corridor and coastal plains as temperatures likely range from mid to upper 30s. At this time, we calling for cold rain, however, monitoring closely model guidance and trends in case of future outputs to be colder which bring the wintry mix topic to the picture.
Once the evening comes around on Friday, temperatures go down into the upper 20s to the mid 30s. A surface low shows up developing across the northwest Gulf from Friday into Saturday morning. The GFS keeps most of the activity across the coastal plains while the ECMWF depicts more activity over a good portion of the local area. We will continue to monitor closely this setup for the potential of wintry mix during that period.
Finally warms up into the mid to upper 50s on Saturday afternoon with all precipitation being rain. A Pacific front could push across the local area on Saturday night or Sunday. Dry weather conditions are expected for Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 441 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
VFR conditions are expected for all local airports through at least 06Z Tuesday. Increased moisture arrives and cigs and vbsys going down to LIFR overnight into Tuesday morning. North to northeast winds shift to the east and southeast this afternoon and continue through Tuesday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 61 51 65 27 / 0 10 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 50 65 27 / 0 10 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 63 51 69 30 / 0 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 61 50 66 23 / 0 0 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 50 81 33 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 49 65 25 / 0 10 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 65 50 73 31 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 62 50 67 28 / 0 10 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 62 50 67 30 / 0 10 40 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 63 52 71 31 / 0 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 65 53 72 34 / 0 10 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KSSF STINSON MUNI,TX | 6 sm | 56 min | NE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 39°F | 27°F | 60% | 30.24 | |
KSAT SAN ANTONIO INTL,TX | 10 sm | 58 min | NNE 03 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 37°F | 27°F | 65% | 30.25 | |
KSKF KELLY FLD,TX | 10 sm | 54 min | NE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 39°F | 27°F | 60% | 30.21 | |
KRND RANDOLPH AFB,TX | 11 sm | 54 min | NNE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 25°F | 60% | 30.22 | |
KCVB CASTROVILLE MUNI,TX | 24 sm | 34 min | ENE 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 36°F | 27°F | 69% | 30.23 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSSF
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSSF
Wind History Graph: SSF
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas
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Austin/San Antonio, TX,

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