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FXUS64 KEWX 202204 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 504 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The latest GOES 16 water vapor imagery shows at 594dm ridge over northern Mexico, resulting in our rather hot and humid conditions early this afternoon. Clouds have been slow to break over the Edwards Plateau, so opted to lower Max T's by a degree or two this afternoon, but it won't make much difference, as it'll still be hot.
Southwest flow aloft remains west of us over west Texas and New Mexico and will remain that way through most of Tuesday until we start to see the ridge slide more eastward tomorrow evening. A cold front will enter the Texas Panhandle late Tuesday and start working southward, but don't get your hopes up, as it's unlikely to have much of any impact on our sensible weather in the short term. Hot again on Tuesday with highs in the 100-105 range along the Rio Grande and in the 90s elsewhere. As far as storm chances go, we may see a stray shower or storm develop Tuesday afternoon/evening over the Edwards Plateau or Rio Grande Plains, but 700mb temperatures will remain quite warm, resulting in strong capping. Anything that can break through the cap would be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds, but the odds are less than 10% at this time.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Upper level ridging will continue to dominate our weather through the long term period, resulting in an early season heat wave. A few weaknesses in the northern periphery of this ridge will help stall our warming trend a bit Wednesday and Thursday, as well as bring a low chance for isolated showers and storms to far northern portions of our CWA (southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country). While there will be sufficient instability and shear in place to support severe storms both days, a capping inversion will be working to inhibit convective development (especially on Wednesday), which is part of the reason for the low PoPs aside from the subtle forcing.

Another chance for isolated storms seems possible Friday afternoon/evening across northern portions of the Hill Country before the ridge expands slightly northward over the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This will lead to the warmest temperatures of the year so far with widespread upper 90s to upper 100s expected for high temperatures and even warmer heat indices.
Heat advisories and/or warnings will be likely.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions are currently prevailing at the area airports late this afternoon. With continued low-level southerly flow should see a return of MVFR stratus by the late evening or early overnight hours for the area. These conditions should lift by 17-18z tomorrow.
South/southeast winds at the surface will be less than 10 knots during the overnight periods, but increase to near 15-18 knots in the afternoon periods. Otherwise, no major concerns this TAF cycle across the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 75 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 93 76 93 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 73 91 75 90 / 0 0 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 104 79 103 / 0 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 91 75 91 / 0 0 0 20 Hondo Muni Airport 75 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 91 77 91 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 95 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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