Sunrise 6:55 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 9:05 PM   Moonset 6:45 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 251723 AAA AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1223 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Low clouds and breezy southerly flow continues across South-Central Texas overnight with cloudy conditions, wind speeds near 15 to 25 mph and mild temperatures in the lower 70s. As the low-levels saturate further into the morning hours, we are likely to see some patchy areas of drizzle and perhaps some fog mainly around the I35 corridor and Hill Country. Not likely to see much in the way of accumulations from this activity other than possible trace amounts to a few hundredths of an inch. Cloud cover is expected to hold on throughout the day today but with continued southerly flow, expect temperatures today to warm into the lower 80s to near 90 degrees across the area.

The focus for any appreciable thunderstorm chances is towards the west later today. The dryline is expected to remain west of Val Verde County today with some high-res models showing convective initiation well northwest of our area during the late evening hours.
There is a smaller chance of a storm developing west of the the Rio Grande with a small chance of moving east into the CWA in the evening hours. Overall chances of this are low but will mention some silent 10 PoPs in the west through the evening hours. The slightly better chances for rainfall in our CWA will come after midnight and closer to daybreak as that activity mentioned earlier developing near the dryline to our northwest possible makes it into the western Hill Country before decaying and dissipating. Will mention some 20- 30 PoPs in the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country for this possible scenario. Can't completely rule out a strong storm but during the late afternoon and overnight period from the mentioned possibilities, but overall chances are 5 percent or less. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area once again.

On Friday, a weak shortwave should help induce some shower and possible thunderstorm activity across the area. Most of the high-res guidance shows this activity as showers as a decent cap above 800 mb is evident in the forecast soundings. The cap is weaker for our northern counties and will leave the mention of thunderstorms in addition to the showers there. Rain amounts are not expected to be too high generally less than 0.2' for most locations. The coverage of the shower and thunderstorm activity will be diminishing after 21z as the 850-700mb layer dries out a bit as winds become more southwesterly in that layer. If any updrafts can become sustained within in the afternoon hours, can't rule out an isolated strong to severe storm in the noon-5 pm time frame for mainly our northern areas where the cap is weakest and the environment would be supportive of organized convection. Otherwise, highs will top out in the lower 80s to middle 90s with the warmer temperatures in the drier airmass near the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Another upper level low is forecast to dig into the Four Corners Friday night and take a track northeast through the Rockies and into the central and northern Plains over the weekend. The dryline retreats back west Friday night, with any remaining isolated convection dissipating overnight. Patchy drizzle and isolated streamer showers are possible Saturday morning beneath the cap along and west of the I-35 corridor. Otherwise, warm, breezy and humid Saturday east of the dryline and hot near the Rio Grande where drier air is in place. High temperatures Saturday along the Rio Grande are forecast to reach the upper 90s to near 100. The hot temperatures and low humidity in the afternoon could lead to elevated fire weather conditions across this region. Wind speeds should be weaker in the afternoon across this region than farther east, but are forecast to increase Saturday evening, when a brief period of near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible before relative humidity recovers with surging dew points.

Attention turns to Saturday night along the dryline located across west-central Texas and into the southern Edwards Plateau. As forcing in the tail end of the aforementioned upper level disturbance approaches, convective initiation is expected along the dryline to the north late Saturday afternoon and early evening. Convection is forecast to unzip south into the southern Edwards Plateau late evening assisted with the low level jet increasing to around 40-50KT into a cold front catching up with the dryline as well as large scale ascent increasing. Forecast soundings across portions of the northern Hill Country and southern Edwards PLateau are favorable initially for a few severe supercells, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and an isolated tornado all threats. Convection may congeal and become linear overnight through the Hill Country, and potentially decay/weaken into the I-35 corridor early Sunday morning where it encounters increasing convective inhibition with the cap. SPC has placed the Hill Country and portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande in a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Saturday night.

Sunday's forecast confidence is lower, and conditional on how far east any complex of storms and the surface dryline/cold front makes it Saturday night. Generally higher rain chances Sunday will be located along and east of I-35

The forecast next week is very low confidence. There is a large spread in the global models, but generally low rain chances are in the forecast every day, potentially increasing Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Abundant surface moisture will continue to result in less than ideal flying conditions early this afternoon, along with breezy winds from 140-180 at 15-20 kts, gusting to 25-30 kts. We should see VFR ceilings beyond 19Z and continue through 02-03Z at AUS, SAT, and SSF before MVFR returns in advance of a chance at TSRA at the terminals between 09Z and 17Z Friday. DRT should remain dry, but some MVFR cigs look like a decent bet between 07Z-18Z Friday. Overall, confidence is highest in TSRA at AUS, but opted for PROB30 groups at SAT and SSF as well, as confidence is coverage is the lowest, and if storms do indeed form further south, we want to have the possibility covered.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 71 84 71 86 / 10 60 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 83 70 85 / 10 60 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 86 70 86 / 10 40 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 69 82 69 82 / 30 60 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 96 73 98 / 10 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 82 70 84 / 10 70 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 71 88 70 89 / 10 30 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 84 70 86 / 10 50 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 84 73 85 / 0 30 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 85 71 85 / 10 40 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 72 87 72 87 / 10 40 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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