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FXUS64 KEWX 101119 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 519 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 145 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Yesterday's front is now well in our rear-view, and northerly winds have reached their peak overnight at 10-25 mph with frequent 25-30 mph gusts. The pressure gradient should gradually slacken over the next 12-18 hours as the surface high currently centered off to our NW in CO and NM drifts to TX and weakens. By the afternoon, winds will be 5-10 mph over our western areas and 10-15 mph east, and these winds will continue to diminish to 5 mph or less by the evening. Under clear skies, below normal highs will reach the upper 50s north and lower 60s south.

Overnight, the surface high will drift east far enough that a light southerly flow may develop. However, some locations may decouple for long enough to limit mechanical mixing and allow radiational cooling to dominate the sfc temperature profile. Some areas will likely dip into the 28-32 degree range early Monday morning, however other locations will remain above freezing. With some uncertainty in the wind influence, and given most counties where freezing temperatures are likely will not see these conditions across the entire county, we have opted to start with an SPS for all but Val Verde County (where NBM freeze probabilities are less than 40% essentially county- wide and almost no forecast pixels reach freezing at this time) and allow the day shift to further evaluate. However, a Freeze Warning is likely to be needed for at least some of the region. The urban centers of Austin and San Antonio are not expected to freeze, nor is most of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the cold start, increasing southerlies and continued sunshine will allow for a quick warm-up with daytime highs on Monday in the 60s.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 145 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

An upper level low takes shape over the Great Basin on Tuesday with a moist southwesterly flow aloft developing over our area. A moist southeasterly lower level flow strengthens over our area. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday night into Tuesday. Moisture levels continue to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper level low moves to over Arizona. Forcing strengthens leading to chances of showers by Wednesday. The upper level low moves over El Paso on Thursday, drops southeast over our area on Friday, then off the Texas coast late Saturday. In addition, a cold front drops south over our area late Thursday night into Friday to enhance chances of showers. Minimal instability and weak mid level lapse rates indicate a potential for only isolated thunderstorms, at times. As the low moves off to the south and east, chances of showers end from west to east Friday night into Saturday. Although, the 10/00Z operational runs have come into better agreement, ensembles still show some differences. As a result, expect continued tuning of the forecast as we go through mid week into next weekend. Due to the extensive cloudiness and showers on Wednesday through Saturday, below normal high temperatures and above normal low temperatures are expected.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Clear skies are forecast through the period as high pressure takes control. The breeziest winds ended a few hours ago, but we do expect winds to increase again after sunrise and gusts will pick back up to near 20 knots at KAUS and KSAT. Winds will become light to calm this evening, but as the high moves east KDRT will develop a light SE flow tonight. Southerly winds will spread to the I-35 terminals by mid- morning Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 59 35 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 60 30 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 61 32 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 57 33 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 61 35 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 58 31 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 62 32 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 60 31 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 58 31 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 61 36 64 44 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 62 34 65 44 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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