LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Even though it's meteorological fall and we got a small preview of some pleasant weather over the weekend, it is still astronomical summer and the forecast this weekend will be a stern reminder of that. With ridging aloft building in behind the departing Francine, we'll see 500mb heights increase to 588-590 dam, 850mb temperatures in the 21-23°C range (NAEFS/GEFS: ~99th percentile), and PW values mainly in the 1.3-1.5" range. Those PW values are closer to the 25th percentile than they are to the 75th percentile, so the air will be climatologically dry which makes sense being under the influence of increased subsidence aloft. All of that to say, drier air heats more efficiently, so we can expect a return to the low to mid 90s with some areas across the Brazos Valley reaching the upper 90s. That increased subsidence also means lower chances of rainfall as well.
The best chances to see rain this weekend will be offshore and around Matagorda Bay where moisture availability is the greatest.

Going into early next week, an upper level trough moving through the western CONUS will aid in weakening the ridge overhead which will allow for more low-level moisture to filter in leading to 20-30% PoPs. On top of that, temperatures will see a slight downward trend.
Don't get too excited though as we only drop into the low to mid 90s going into midweek. If last weekend's cold front gave you some false hope that we were finally done with summer, then I have some stats for you! Spoiler alert...you're not gonna like em. For the City of Houston, the average last day with a high temperature above 90°F for the year is in early October. The last time our last day of 90+°F temperatures occurred in the month of September was back in 2001...so the odds aren't exactly in our favor. "False Fall" is also fairly common as our average first day with a low temperature below 70°F is in the end of August. On the plus side, the average first day with a low temperature below 60°F is at the end of this month...so we got that going for us!

Batiste

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

MVFR and some IFR ceilings have been slow to fill in this evening, but still expecting most locations to fill in over the next several hours.
Could see some fog too. Gradually improving conditions can be expected in the morning with all sites eventually becoming VFR. VFR will prevail into tomorrow evening. Light mainly N winds overnight will increase to around 5 to 10 knots tomorrow then decrease back down tomorrow evening and become more NE.

42

MARINE
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

As Francine continues to move northeastward away from the Texas coast, conditions will continue to gradually improve across the bays and Gulf waters. Caution flags prevail for Galveston Bay through this afternoon and Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect through tonight for the Gulf waters mainly due to the elevated seas.
Northerly winds will continue to gradually subside from west to east throughout the day. Minor coastal flooding will be possible again on Thursday morning, so a Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect.
Additionally, the rip current risk will be high through at least Thursday afternoon. Winds transitions from northerly to northwesterly by Thursday morning, but we return back to onshore flow by Thursday night. This period of onshore flow looks to extend through the weekend and into early next week.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 70 89 67 96 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 72 88 70 94 / 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 85 76 86 / 10 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ214-313- 335>338-436>439.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.