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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 923 Am Cst Wed Dec 6 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots this afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth this afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..South winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Saturday..South winds around 15 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 923 Am Cst Wed Dec 6 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
light to moderate east to northeast winds are expected to increase and veer southeasterly then southerly on Thursday into Friday, resulting in gradually increasing seas. Rain chances increase on Thursday night into Friday, but will peak on Saturday as a cold front pushes through the waters bringing showers and Thunderstorms along with it. Northwest winds in the wake of the front will reach small craft advisory territory with gusts up to gale force possible Saturday night into Sunday morning along with building seas. Winds and seas subside on Sunday.

FXUS64 KHGX 060855 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 255 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Surface high pressure centered around Arkansas today will make its way toward the southeast portion of the country in the next couple days. As it does so, we'll see onshore winds resume across the area tonight and Thursday. With the Gulf opening back up, we'll see a gradual upward climb of temps (esp at night) and cloud cover. Things still too dry for precip Thursday, but late Thurs night PW's will climb back up to around 1.0" north to 1.5" south and some guidance is suggesting the possibility of some iso-sct shra development as a mid level shortwave passes through. Added some lowish POPs into the fcst before sunrise Fri across southern parts of the CWA for this potential. 47

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

With surface low pressure deepening around the TX/OK panhandles on Friday, moisture advection/WAA are enhanced leading to PW values reaching the 1.2"-1.5" range (90th percentile: ~1.44") and 850mb temperatures approaching the 99th percentile. The tightening pressure gradient leads to fairly breezy southerly winds around 20 mph...and there's even breezier winds to talk about coming up on Saturday. Temperatures on Friday will be about 10°F above normal with highs topping out in the mid to upper 70s. Rain chances also gradually increase from south to north on Friday as moisture increases out ahead of an approaching mid/upper level trough. With moisture and subsequent cloud cover in place on Friday night (along with breezy winds), I bumped up the low temperatures to the mid to upper 60s...which is right around our normal high temperature this time of year.

That'll be a brief occurrence though as Saturday night will be 20+°F colder thanks to a cold front that pushes through earlier in the day. This front is pushed through by a surface low that develops courtesy of the previously mentioned mid/upper level trough. The GFS is trending slightly later in the day compared to yesterday's run, which places a little more confidence in an afternoon FROPA.
Also of note in today's 00Z GFS run, the mid level trough is a bit stronger and deeper compared to yesterday's run and places it closer to the solutions that the ECMWF/Canadian have been consistent with. This is important to note because an afternoon FROPA gives us a better opportunity to erode the subsidence inversion layer aloft (cap) that will be in place due to an extended period of southwesterly winds aloft at 850mb. We'll be in the warm sector ahead of the front, so we'll have an axis of instability and plenty of shear (LLJ overhead) to work with. As a result, there is the potential for some storms ahead of and along the frontal boundary to become strong to severe if they manage to break through the cap. SPC still has part of Southeast TX outlined in a 15% probability for severe weather on Saturday. The best potential for these strong to severe storms will likely be north of I-10 and east of I-45, where the LLJ is a bit stronger to add to the speed shear. Additionally, with PW values near or greater than the 90th percentile, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible...but there are no flood concerns as this front will be moving through rather quickly.

Ahead of the front, we'll see temperatures top out in the mid to upper 70s (can't rule out some isolated locations reaching 80°F)
along and south of I-10 due to compressional heating. Behind the front, the pressure gradient remains tight as strong surface high pressure builds in. Breezy northwesterly winds around 20-25 mph may prompt a Wind Advisory for parts of Southeast TX...so if you have any outdoor holiday decorations that could be blown over/away (e.g. inflatables), you should definitely ensure they are tied down on Friday and Saturday night. Let's not have Santa take flight three weeks early! Strong CAA in the wake of the front leads to a quick drop off in temperatures with lows ranging from the upper 30 to mid 40s on Saturday night. High pressure slides directly overhead on Sunday, so temperatures will only top out in the mid to upper 50s underneath crisp and clear blue skies...a great day to break out those Christmas sweaters! Sunday night will be the coldest of the long term period with widespread lows in the 30s and some locations in the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley seeing a light freeze. That's thanks to max radiational cooling (light winds + clear skies) with surface high pressure remaining overhead.

The 850mb high pressure remains overhead going into early next week leaving 850mb temperatures in the 5-9°C range, so expect highs to remain in the low to mid 60s and lows generally in the 40s. Long range NBM deterministic continues to keep the upper quartiles of max temperatures well below the 70°F mark through midweek with a slight downward trend. This is due to another mid/upper level trough moving through the Four Corners region at the tail-end of the long term period that may bring our next cold front some time after midweek.
Now of course...it's too early to set that in stone so stay tuned for tomorrow morning's AFD and I'll give y'all an update on model trends for the next FROPA!

BONUS: I know that was a lot to read through...so I have a special treat for those that read this far to make it worth it for y'all! Skies will remain clear enough after sunset today (Wednesday) to spot the International Space Station at 6:17pm CST.
It's maximum height will be 86°, which means it'll be directly overhead! It'll appear from the northwest horizon, be visible for 7 minutes, and disappear in the southeast horizon...so be sure to head out there to catch a glimpse!

Batiste

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

VFR for the next 30+ hours. 47

MARINE
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly/easterly winds will prevail into tonight, then become southeasterly on Thursday.
Onshore flow strengthens on Friday ahead of an approaching weather system with wind speeds possibly reaching advisory threshold.
Rain chances begin to increase on Thursday night/Friday as well due to building moisture, but the best chance of showers and storms comes on Saturday afternoon as a strong cold front pushes through the waters. In the wake of the front, northwesterly winds will reach the 20-25 knot range with wind gusts approaching gale force. As a result, seas will build to the 6-8 foot range on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Mariners can expect a Small Craft Advisory to be in effect during this time frame. On Sunday, winds and seas gradually subside.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 67 44 70 59 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 67 45 69 58 / 0 0 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 62 55 67 62 / 0 0 0 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:58 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:44 AM CST     0.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:01 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:00 PM CST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:21 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:26 PM CST     0.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:40 PM CST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet

Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:57 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:21 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:59 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:35 AM CST     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:52 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:28 PM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:50 PM CST     0.38 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:37 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:40 PM CST     -0.19 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:36 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots

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