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FXUS64 KEWX 170543 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1243 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 807 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

With the strong cool outflows from the late afternoon squall line, we were due for a foreast update. Low temps with a early start to cooling will get a nudge downward. A severe hailstorm over Menard County is barreling toward Llano County and could present a severe risk for the next hour. We think the storm should weaken some as the cool outflow winds should reduce some of the lower level instability.
By the looks of it, there's probably enough mid level instability to hold it together long enough to bring at least some small hail into the CWA SPC Mesoanalysis depict another county worth of steep mid level lapse rates downstream from the storm, but a significant drop off in lapse rates once it reaches Llano County. Thus we are still carrying low chance PoPs for the Austin metro area, but do not think the threat for severe weather is anywhere near the levels it was earlier. Nevertheless, there remains a Marginal Risk over most of the area with a Slight Risk over West Central Texas extending south into parts of our Edwards Plateau/Western Hill Country counties.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Showers and even a few thunderstorms are beginning to increase in coverage across the eastern half of the CWA, especially across the northern Hill Country in advance of a developing MCS. With this MCS, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats, though isolated instances of large hail will be possible with any discrete storms that develop. This activity will continue to increase in coverage and move east across the Severe Thunderstorm Watch area into the evening hours. The current watch is in effect through 22Z, though a local extension in time may be needed if storms look to linger beyond then. South of the watch area, more isolated convection is possible through the evening. While this activity could be severe as well, coverage will likely be limited due to the widespread cloud cover that has been in place all day.

Confidence in the placement of convection, if any, decreases substantially overnight, though isolated storms will remain possible across generally the same areas as this afternoon. Chances for storms look to increase again around and after sunrise tomorrow morning as a second subtle upper level disturbance moves out of northern Mexico, but CAMs keep the majority of this activity south of our CWA border. Any activity that sneaks north of this border could be strong to severe, and therefore a level 1/5 risk is in place across the southern half of our area. As we move into Friday afternoon, a secondary area to watch will be near Val Verde County as isolated storms may develop across west Texas/northern Mexico and push east into the evening. A weak front will have moved south of this area by tomorrow afternoon, which leads to lower confidence in convection developing at all, but if it does it will be high based in nature and carry an isolated hail/wind threat. In the absence of these storms, conditions will be dry and mostly clear for Friday evening/night.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Hot, above average, temperatures prevail over South-Central Texas through this weekend into next week as mid-level ridging across Mexico strengthens. Additionally, majority of the period will include light to moderate south-southeasterly winds off the Gulf with surface high pressure displaced to the east. This yields to higher humidity levels, especially across our southern and eastern most zones. The heat indices, especially into early to middle of next week, will climb into the 103 to 108 degree range for many areas. A drier heat is expected out west along the Rio Grande but afternoon high temperatures will easily climb above 100 degrees across those areas. Rain chances remain minimal through at least early next week. An approaching shortwave out of the west could allow for slight rain/storm chances to re-enter the forecast into the Hill Country next Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Isolated TSRA will track near SAT over the next hour, and gradually weaken. Additional SHRA and isolated TSRA development is possible overnight southeast of SAT. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings overnight for most locations, but the Rio Grande. Some pockets of IFR ceilings and IFR to MVFR visibilities in BR are possible around sunrise, mainly near and north of a T82-BAZ-3T5 line, including AUS. VFR conditions developing Friday afternoon. Isolated to scattered TSRA activity is indicated by several CAMs to develop in NW Mexico and along the Rio Grande Friday afternoon, tracking east near DRT late afternoon and early evening and potentially into the Hill Country and lesser confidence near the I-35 corridor. For now we have included a PROB30 TSRA group at just DRT for this.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 87 67 92 71 / 10 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 86 66 92 70 / 10 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 67 94 70 / 10 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 85 64 91 70 / 0 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 99 71 105 77 / 20 20 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 66 90 70 / 10 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 94 66 97 70 / 10 20 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 87 65 93 69 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 68 90 70 / 20 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 90 68 94 72 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 91 69 95 72 / 10 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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