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FXUS64 KEWX 100438 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1038 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

A cold front located roughly along an Eagle Pass to Boerne to Taylor line continues to move southward through the region this afternoon.
Some much drier air behind the front is noted with dewpoints in the teens across western Val Verde county at the west Texas mesonet site southwest of Comstock. Farther to the south and east ahead of the cold front, dewpoints are still in the lower 60s to near 70 degrees.

For the remainder of this afternoon, the cold front will continue to push southward with gusty winds and drier air moving in behind the front. Winds will remain gusty following the frontal passage and continue through the evening and overnight hours. We have held off on a Wind Advisory as sustained winds look to remain just below criteria. Much cooler overnight lows are in store with temperatures ranging from the lower 30s in the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to the lower 40s in the Coastal plains. A few of the higher elevation sites mainly north of Rocksprings may see temperatures briefly approach freezing toward sunrise Sunday. Below normal highs are in the forecast for Sunday with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. For Sunday night into Monday morning, clear skies and very dry air will be intact. We also expect to see a decrease in winds, but have noted how models are trying to bring southerly winds back to most areas by sunrise Monday. We still suspect the NBM guidance is still way too warm and have opted to trend lows closer to a blend of the previous forecast and the NBM 25th percentile.
This scenario would likely bring a fairly widespread freeze to a good portion of south central Texas Sunday night into Monday morning.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

After what looks to be a fairly widespread freeze on Monday morning, temperatures will climb and moisture will return heading into Wednesday as winds become southeasterly. This will be in response to both a surface anticyclone shifting off to the east and an approaching upper level low from the west that will induce surface cyclogenesis across W TX and S NM. By Wednesday, this upper low will be centered near the Four Corners region, moving very slowly to the southeast. This should start to provide enough lift for some shower and possibly isolated thunderstorm activity across mainly western portions of the CWA. Through Saturday, models begin to disagree on the exact path of this upper low, but in general it should continue to move east through the southern Plains, which will also result in an easterly shift in PoPs with time. The surface low will also move to the east in tandem with the upper low, bringing a northerly/northwesterly wind shift, likely through the day on Friday. This should result in at least slightly cooler low temperatures as well as diminishing rain chances heading into the weekend. While a reasonable amount of uncertainty still exists regarding the exact evolution of this system, the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ensembles all show medium to high probabilities (50-100%) for at least 0.5" of total QPF through Saturday across all of south-central Texas.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

VFR conditions prevail through the period under clear skies. Main highlight this TAF period will be continued breezy northerly winds into the first half of the overnight with gusts up to 30 knots. The winds at KDRT will not be as strong into the overnight hours. The winds then diminish into Sunday but will remain of around moderate speeds through the early afternoon. Winds then diminish more with light and variable conditions expected into and through Sunday evening.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will continue over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains this afternoon.
Gusty north winds combined with very dry air behind a cold front will result in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions through early evening. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement remains in effect until 7 PM CST. Avoid activities that could inadvertently lead to the ignition and spread of wildfires.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 40 58 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 41 59 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 41 61 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 36 57 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 41 61 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 37 57 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 39 61 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 40 60 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 43 57 31 62 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 41 60 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 43 62 35 65 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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