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FXUS64 KEWX 302103 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 303 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 229 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

A pre-frontal trough moving through the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country is noted on surface observations and can also be seen as clearing of low clouds occurs over the mentioned areas. Farther east, we are seeing some breaks in the cloud cover begin to appear for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor. An axis of higher dewpoints is noted along the Highway 77 corridor, along with locally backed surface winds. Any breaks in the cloud cover could help in the development of some late afternoon thunderstorms along the Highway 77 corridor.

For tonight, the above mentioned surface trough will help usher in some drier air across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau.
A very weak and shallow cold front may also bring some drier air to portions of the I-35 corridor near Austin early Friday morning.
Farther south, dewpoints may still be high enough when combined with mostly clear skies and wet ground to promote fog development generally along and south of U.S. Highway 90. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s in the Hill Country to near 60 degrees in the coastal plains. Any remnants of the cold front will tend to hang up in the coastal plains tomorrow. With active southwest flow aloft continuing, we could see some more convection develop over the coastal plains region tomorrow afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm or two also remains possible. Weak high pressure and dry air in the low-levels will yield dry conditions Friday night along with overnight lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Synopsis: The long term period will begin with the continued presence of mean troughing over the western CONUS. An elongated trough axis extending from Baja California to the western Great Lakes will move overhead late Saturday into Sunday, helping to usher a weak surface front/northwest wind shift through the area by Sunday morning. This will bring noticeably drier air into South-Central Texas from Sunday into the beginning of next week, though minimal changes in temperatures are expected. Early period troughing over the western CONUS will be replaced by longwave ridging by the middle of next week, though precise evolution of the upper pattern is less certain locally. There appears to be at least broad consensus amongst the global guidance that height falls will linger over northwestern Mexico, gradually drifting toward the region by the end of the period. The precise character of said height falls -- namely their amplitude and whether or not a closed low can materialize within them -- remains highly uncertain, particularly when comparing ensemble mean solutions to their deterministic counterparts.
Forecast confidence thus decreases by late next week & the conclusion of the long term period.

Saturday Through Monday: Expect a nice stretch of weather with partly to mostly sunny skies, high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, and dew points dropping into the 20s/30s by Sunday morning. Expect the dry air to last through Monday afternoon.
Winds are forecast to regain a southerly component late Monday, bringing modestly higher moisture into the region moving into the middle of the week.

Wednesday & Thursday: A dry forecast continues to prevail despite the uncertainties regarding the local upper air pattern. High temperatures will likely be a touch cooler, with most locations remaining in the upper 60s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Low clouds remain intact at area TAF sites for continued IFR through early this afternoon. We are seeing some breaks in the cloud cover and with some heating, improvement to low-end MVFR is in store as we head into late this afternoon. We can't rule out a few showers or thunderstorms today, but the better chances for this appear to remain east of the I-35 corridor. For the overnight hours into early Friday morning, the models suggest the best potential for fog and low cloud development will generally remain near or south of the U.S.
Highway 90 corridor. Light north-northwest winds tend to limit fog potential at SAT, but SSF will be on the edge of the favored moisture. We have also added a mention of SCT low clouds at DRT and may need to add a TEMPO group for cigs pending future model runs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 51 71 48 75 / 0 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 52 71 47 75 / 0 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 54 74 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 48 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 51 77 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 50 70 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 51 76 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 53 72 48 76 / 0 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 57 69 50 72 / 10 20 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 55 74 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 56 75 52 77 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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