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GMZ538 Expires:202312050415;;891819 Fzus54 Klix 041515 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 915 am cst Mon dec 4 2023
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz536-538-050415- chandeleur sound-breton sound- 915 am cst Mon dec 4 2023
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming northwest early. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.

GMZ500 915 Am Cst Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
high pressure will continue to build into the area with light northerly winds expected. A reinforcing cold front will sweep through the waters Tuesday night, and this will push northerly winds up into exercise caution range of 15 to 20 knots from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Winds will then relax back to around 10 to 15 knots and shift to the east and then southeast Thursday afternoon as high pressure passes to the north. By Friday, the high will be east of the waters and a moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots is expected.

FXUS64 KLIX 041715 AAC AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1115 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

NEW AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 920 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A weak cold front continues to move into the area. A dry FROPA is anticipated, but higher stratus and cirrus will linger through much of the day limiting insolation, which will keep temps just a bit cooler than otherwise. Although, like yesterday if the cloud deck thins a bit and filtered sunshine does peak, MaxTs may be in trouble again. That said, the CAA behind this feature will be a bit stronger than yesterday so with that said the balance between the two looks good for our ongoing temperature forecast. At this point, only superficial adjustments to the ongoing forecast were made and text products for the midpoint update are already out the door. (Frye)

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A broad longwave trough axis over the eastern third of the CONUS will be the primary feature impacting the forecast area through Wednesday. Initially, a more zonal flow regime in the mid and upper levels will be in place today and tomorrow. Pacific based moisture will continue to feed into the region on the back of the westerly flow, and this will keep a scattered to broken cirrus deck in place through tomorrow. At the surface, high pressure building in from the north and west will keep a light northerly flow in place. Conditions will remain very dry in the low levels of the atmosphere due to this ridging. The cirrus deck will inhibit radiational cooling tonight, and have stuck with the deterministic NBM output for temperatures as it is on the upper end of the model solutions for overnight lows. Temperatures will be near average with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

A reinforcing shortwave trough axis and associated front will sweep through the region Tuesday night, and this will drive a cooler airmass into the area. The front will also serve to clear out any linger high level cloud cover as winds shift to the northwest in the mid and upper levels. Temperatures Tuesday night will be about the same as seen tonight, and this will be due to increased gradient flow keeping the boundary layer thermally mixed. However, the cooler air moving will push daytime highs down into the upper 50s on Wednesday. By Wednesday night, lighter winds and clear skies will allow for stronger radiational cooling to occur. Lows should dip into the lower to middle 30s over inland areas and the lower 40s on the Southshore and the immediate coast.
Once again, the NBM deterministic output was in the ballpark and have stuck with that.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A shortwave ridge axis will be pushing across the area on Thursday and this will keep a highly subsident airmass with clear skies and low humidity in place. The thermal trough axis will also begin to pull to the east as winds begin to shift to a more onshore component in the afternoon hours on the southwest periphery of the departing surface high. This will allow for slightly warmer temperatures in the low to mid 60s Thursday afternoon. The onshore flow will gradually usher in more Gulf moisture and this will keep lows a good 10 degrees warmer on Thursday night with readings generally falling into the 40s and lower 50s. Once again, these values are in line with the deterministic NBM.

Friday will see onshore flow increase in the low levels and a more southwesterly flow regime develop in the mid and upper levels. A weak shortwave embedded within this southwest flow will pass through the northern Gulf, but a lack of instability and deeper moisture will prohibit much more than some cloud development from occurring on the Gulf coast. Temperatures will continue to modify with highs climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s. These values are around 5 degrees above average for this time of year. The warmer values will translate into Friday night with lows only dipping into the upper 50s and lower 60s. As has been the case through the forecast period, have largely stuck with NBM deterministic values for the temperature forecast.

Conditions still look to be unsettled as we head into Saturday and Sunday as a strong northern stream trough digs into the Plains and then sweeps through the Deep South. In advance of this trough on Saturday, a surge of deeper moisture will feed into the area as onshore flow continues to intensify. This moisture surge will push precipitable water values up to around 1.5 inches which is well above normal for this time of year. Increasingly difluent flow aloft will support greater deep layer forcing, and expect to see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms develop as temperatures warm into the mid 70s. This convective activity will persist into Saturday night as the parent trough axis and an attendant cold front slide through the area. Have included likely PoP of 60 to 70 percent in the forecast from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night to reflect this convective risk. Additionally, there are some indications that a few strong to severe storms could develop, but this will be highly dependent on the amount of instability and shear that accompanies the system. Later forecasts will have a better handle on the severe potential with this next system.

By Sunday, strong negative vorticity and cold air advection will take hold of the region in the wake of the passing trough axis.
Strong northwest flow will develop over the area, and temperatures will be a good 15 degrees cooler with highs only warming into the upper 50s. The strong subsidence moving in with the departure of the trough axis will also rapidly clear skies out on Sunday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

VFR conditions and mostly light and variable winds through this TAF cycle. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A surface high building over the waters from the north and west will keep northerly winds in place through tomorrow. As the high becomes more centered over the region, these winds will begin to decrease to around 5 to 10 knots by tomorrow. However, a reinforcing cold front will sweep through the waters tomorrow night, and this will push winds into exercise caution range of 15 to 20 knots from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning. The wind field will relax a bit on Thursday as high pressure passes to the north of the waters, and winds will also shift to the east and then southeast over this period. A fairly persistent onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will then take hold on Friday and continue into Saturday in advance of another low pressure system moving into the Plains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 39 65 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 42 68 42 60 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 41 66 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 49 64 48 58 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 43 65 43 58 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 40 67 41 58 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Breton Islands
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Mon -- 02:14 AM CST     1.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
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Breton Islands, Louisiana, Tide feet

Jack Bay
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Mon -- 02:47 AM CST     1.04 feet High Tide
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Mon -- 02:09 PM CST     0.00 feet Low Tide
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