Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 6:17 AM   Moonset 8:39 PM

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GMZ538 Expires:202405090915;;862790 Fzus54 Klix 082011 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 311 pm cdt Wed may 8 2024
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz536-538-090915- chandeleur sound-breton sound- 311 pm cdt Wed may 8 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect from now through 7pm this evening - . .small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm cdt this evening through Thursday morning - .
Rest of today - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Friday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Saturday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - East winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 311 Pm Cdt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through the rest of today with some locally higher gusts, strengthening to 15 to 25 knots tonight into Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will pass through the coastal waters Thursday night or early Friday. Winds will shift to the north and ease to 10 to 15 Friday and Saturday. Seas will generally be between 1 and 3 feet over the period, but will briefly increase to 3 to 6 feet on Thursday. By Sunday, another area of low pressure will begin to approach the area and winds will turn easterly and then southerly ahead of this low.

FXUS64 KLIX 082052 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 352 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The forecast for the rest of today looks to be on track with high temperatures sitting right around their peak for the day, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures for tomorrow will be even warmer ahead of a cold front that will be approaching. NBM deterministic was running a touch warmer than MOS data and guidance, so ran the 50th percentile for MaxT's. This brings afternoon highs for tomorrow into the low to mid 90s for most of the CWA Heading into Friday, bumped temperatures up a bit as the NBM seems to be banking on clouds sticking around longer than they look to. Still about a 5 degree "cooldown" from Thursday with temps in the mid to upper 80s.

Now onto the main story of the short term period, tomorrow chance of severe weather. The northern half of our CWA is highlighted in a SLIGHT Risk by SPC for mainly wind and hail. Currently there is quite a bit of model discrepancies. Many of them show an MCS forming somewhere back in TX and they diverge from there. Most have this MCS staying to our north, however as we have seen with past events until this system actually forms it can have a more north bias. So the 00z CAMs tonight and the 12z CAMs tomorrow morning will be very telling. For now didn't adjust PoPs a ton, with them peaking in the early morning hours Friday. Taking a look at model soundings, one thing that will not be an issue is CAPE with ~3000-3500J/Kg available. There isn't much in the way of directional shear, but decent speed shear, so tornadoes are less of an issue for our area. 500mb temps are around -10C which isn't crazy but is plenty cold for us to have some large hail.



LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Long Term...
Saturday through mid-week... Saturday and most of Sunday, zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern. Northerly surface winds during this time will help to suppress humidities and keep instability down, which will reduce PoPs. So, not much rain expected Saturday into Sunday morning. Temperatures will be fairly nice over the weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday and upper 70s to low 80s Sunday with lows in the low 60s.

An upper level impulse moves through the area Sunday night into Monday morning with multiple small upper level impulses in close succession through the early part of next week. For the impulse moving into the area Sunday into Monday, southerly surface winds will help advect moisture and instability ahead of the system. The bulk of the best moisture and forcing looks to be for our northernmost areas, but that could definitely shift as things develop over the next few days. This is where there is some model uncertainty over the location of the highest rainfall/strong weather. This will hopefully become more clear in the coming days.

As stated above, more upper level impulses will be influencing the area after Monday through the workweek. There is still a lot of model variability and uncertainty surrounding the strength of these troughs and timing. But it is becoming increasingly likely that we will see multiple rounds of rainfall Monday through Thursday of next week with near normal temperatures. More details will become a little more defined as we get toward the beginning of next week. MSW

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Terminals continue to be a mix of VFR and MVFR due to lower ceilings in some areas. These ceilings will start to lower more into this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Most terminals will see MVFR and IFR conditions as the cloud cover moves in. Winds will be slightly gusty gusty, gusting 20-25kts.

MARINE
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Flow will persist out of the southeast around 10 to 15 knots through the rest of today with some locally higher gusts, strengthening to 15 to 25 knots tonight into Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. This brings a Small Craft Advisory that will be in effect overnight. The front will pass through the coastal waters Thursday night or early Friday. Winds then shift to the north and east to 10 to 15 Friday and Saturday. Seas will generally be between 1 and 3 feet over the period, but will briefly increase to 3 to 6 feet on Thursday. By Sunday, another area of low pressure will begin to approach the area and winds will turn easterly and then southerly ahead of this low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 90 73 90 66 / 10 20 20 40 BTR 93 77 94 72 / 0 10 10 20 ASD 91 75 92 71 / 0 0 10 30 MSY 90 78 92 75 / 0 0 10 20 GPT 86 75 89 71 / 0 10 10 50 PQL 88 75 90 71 / 0 10 20 50

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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Breton Islands
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Wed -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:47 AM CDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:38 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:10 PM CDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Breton Islands, Louisiana, Tide feet

Jack Bay
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Wed -- 06:09 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:17 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:20 AM CDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:55 PM CDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jack Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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