Bolivar Peninsula, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bolivar Peninsula, TX

June 14, 2024 5:23 PM CDT (22:23 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM
Moonrise 12:45 PM   Moonset 12:35 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 325 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 14 2024

Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast late. Bay waters smooth.

Saturday - East winds around 5 knots, veering to southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog early in the morning.

Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.

Sunday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, rising to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.

Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Monday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Hazy.

Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 325 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 14 2024

Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
winds and seas will increase over the next several days as the pressure gradient tightens while a long fetch sets up over the gulf of mexico. Ample gulf moisture will bring numerous showers/storms daily, beginning on Sunday. Small craft advisories could be needed by early next week as winds approach 15 to 20 knots and seas reach 4 to 7 feet. These strong onshore winds over a long fetch will also bring a high risk of rip currents across gulf-facing beaches for this upcoming week.
an area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern gulf of mexico/bay of campeche by mid week. This system is currently expected to track west to northwesterly into mexico later in the week. However, winds over the texas coastline are still expected to reach 20 to 25 knots by Wednesday with seas rising to 7 to 10 feet. Winds and seas could possibly be higher depending on how this system tracks.
mariners are advised to Monitor the aforementioned low pressure system. The national hurricane center currently estimates that the system has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression by the middle of next week. Stronger winds and building seas will remain likely even if the system does not develop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bolivar Peninsula, TX
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Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 142040 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 340 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Relatively benign conditions will continue for the time being, with warm and humid but nonetheless seasonable weather prevailing in the immediate term. Surface high pressure over the SE CONUS and a weak developing surface low in the Bay of Campeche will promote a ESE surface flow, supplying relatively abundant moisture (total PWs of ~1.5 in). Despite this, diurnal convection will continue to be inhibited by the presence of a subsidence inversion at ~850mb, with only isolated chances of showers and storms expected offshore through tomorrow night as a result. With winds becoming light/calm overnight and dew point depressions remaining low, some periods of patchy fog are possible between approximately midnight and 7am. However, a prolonged dense fog event is not expected.

Temperatures will once again rise into the mid 90s for inland areas tomorrow, with the coast sitting near 90. Overnight lows for both tonight and tomorrow night will remain mostly in the 70s (near 80 along the immediate coast), aided by persistent WAA.
Daytime max heat index values will reach the triple digits for most locations...while this does not represent an extreme heat event, common heat safety actions like remaining hydrated when outdoors will still be important.

Cady

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Sunday begins with ridging over the SE CONUS with a weak upper level trough looming overhead. Highs are progged to reach the 90s during the afternoon, with max heat indices reaching the triple digits area- wide. This seems to be on-par with the typical Houston summer, with ample moisture leading to humid and unpleasant afternoon conditions.
Notability this will be the warmest day in the long term forecast as we transition into more of a wet pattern heading into the upcoming week.

On Monday, a surface low is progged to spin up over the Rockies, deepening later in the week as an upper trough digs in over the Northwestern CONUS. With surface high pressure spanning the eastern sea board, this should tighten the pressure gradient, increasing onshore flow over the region. Combined with the upper trough overhead, this will funnel humid Gulf air into SE Texas, creating a corridor of deep moisture (+2" PWs) and numerous shortwave impulses passing aloft. The end result will be wetter conditions with rounds of showers/thunderstorms possible throughout the upcoming week.
Upper level forcing is largely lacking, since the aforementioned trough axis cuts through most of SE Texas. Furthermore, models suggest that this weak trough may initially steer most of the shortwave impulses (and in turn some of the heavier storms) further east of our area (towards Louisiana) early in the week. On a more minor note, this early-week period may also see a weak plume of Saharan Dust, which could further curb rain chances/totals [or at the very least, create some hazy-white skies early Tuesday]. Either way, another stronger burst of shortwave energy is progged to pass over the coastal bend during the mid/late week as the upper trough fills north. Despite those limiting factors, forecast soundings throughout this period feature ample instability with saturated conditions throughout the mid/lower levels, indicative of high precipitation efficiency. Additionally, weak cloud layer winds and weak Corfidi upshear winds suggest slower moving storms, which will further amplify the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

With all those factors in consideration, WPC has a Marginal (level 1/4) Risk of excessive rainfall for Monday and Tuesday across the SE Texas coast. The rainfall threat may likely extend into the later half of the week as this humid Gulf airmass remains in place. Any storms that develop during this period may be slower-moving in nature, capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. The heavy rainfall threat looks to be greatest closer to the coastline. Over this 5 day period, rainfall totals in areas south of I-10 are expected to range from 4-6 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Areas to the north will generally receive 1-3 inches.
during this same period. This rainfall will likely result in rises in rivers, streams and creeks. The heavy rainfall threat currently looks to be greatest on Wednesday/Thursday, especially so as soils become saturated from prior rainfall and thus more prone to runoff.

This forecast will be further complicated by an area of low pressure, which is currently anticipated to develop over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche around mid next week.
Currently this system is expected to track west/northwesterly, with recent model trends favoring a more westerly track that pushes the low into Mexico late in the week. The presence of this system alone should further tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in stronger winds along the Texas coastal waters. The fully impacts of this potential tropical system remain relatively uncertain at this time, in part due to uncertainties in the forecast track and it's northern extent. This system could further exasperate the heavy rainfall threat for mid/late next week, but it's too early to make that call yet. Stay tuned over the next several days as we monitor this possible system.

03

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the duration of the TAF period. A few scattered clouds will continue to persist over the course of the afternoon, but otherwise winds will remain light and no cig development is expected. Overnight, winds become calm with a few high clouds remaining over the area. Periods of patchy fog are possible, which may at times result in a window of sub-VFR visibility between approximately 08 and 15Z. Tomorrow, light to moderate SE winds develop in the morning with conditions remaining VFR.

Cady

MARINE
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Winds and seas will increase over the next several days as the pressure gradient tightens while a long fetch sets up over the Gulf of Mexico. Ample Gulf moisture will bring numerous showers/storms daily, beginning on Sunday. Small Craft advisories could be needed by early next week as winds approach 15 to 20 knots and seas reach 4 to 7 feet. These strong onshore winds over a long fetch will also bring a high risk of rip currents across Gulf-facing beaches for this upcoming week.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche by mid week. This system is currently expected to track west to northwesterly into Mexico later in the week. However, winds over the Texas coastline are still expected to reach 20 to 25 knots by Wednesday with seas rising to 7 to 10 feet.
Winds and seas could possibly be higher depending on how this system tracks.

03



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 73 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 75 95 74 93 / 0 0 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 81 90 82 89 / 0 0 10 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 3 mi54 min 86°F 94°F29.88
HIST2 12 mi54 min 90°F 94°F29.86
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 13 mi54 min 85°F 88°F29.86
GTOT2 17 mi54 min 89°F 89°F29.85
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 19 mi44 minESE 7.8G9.7 89°F29.88
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 19 mi54 min 88°F 92°F29.88
GRRT2 22 mi54 min 87°F 91°F29.86
KGVW 25 mi29 minE 8 86°F 72°F
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 26 mi54 min 92°F 87°F29.87
TXPT2 40 mi54 min 85°F 89°F29.85
LUIT2 41 mi54 min 87°F 90°F29.88
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 41 mi54 min 97°F 29.85
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 42 mi54 min 89°F 85°F29.85


Wind History for Rollover Pass, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KGLS SCHOLES INTL AT GALVESTON,TX 22 sm31 minE 0810 smClear90°F75°F63%29.89
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KXIH
   
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Wind History graph: XIH
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas
   
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Gilchrist
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Fri -- 12:19 AM CDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 01:35 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:00 AM CDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:42 AM CDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:44 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:57 PM CDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:07 PM CDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
0.7
2
am
0.8
3
am
0.8
4
am
0.7
5
am
0.7
6
am
0.6
7
am
0.5
8
am
0.5
9
am
0.5
10
am
0.5
11
am
0.6
12
pm
0.7
1
pm
0.8
2
pm
0.9
3
pm
1
4
pm
1
5
pm
0.9
6
pm
0.8
7
pm
0.7
8
pm
0.6
9
pm
0.6
10
pm
0.5
11
pm
0.5


Tide / Current for Galveston Bay Entrance, Texas Current
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Galveston Bay Entrance
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Fri -- 12:19 AM CDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 01:36 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:37 AM CDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:18 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:45 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:22 AM CDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:45 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:04 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:58 PM CDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:39 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Galveston Bay Entrance, Texas Current, knots
12
am
-0.4
1
am
-0.6
2
am
-0.7
3
am
-0.9
4
am
-1
5
am
-1
6
am
-0.9
7
am
-0.7
8
am
-0.3
9
am
0.1
10
am
0.6
11
am
0.9
12
pm
0.9
1
pm
0.7
2
pm
0.4
3
pm
0
4
pm
-0.4
5
pm
-0.7
6
pm
-1
7
pm
-1
8
pm
-0.9
9
pm
-0.7
10
pm
-0.3
11
pm
0.1


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley   
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Houston/Galveston, TX,




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