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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 923 Am Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east around 10 knots this afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth this afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast late. Bay waters smooth.
Wednesday..East winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy late. Showers likely after midnight.
Thursday..South winds around 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy, becoming rough in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, becoming west around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday night..North winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 923 Am Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
weakening northeast to east winds and lowering seas can be expected today. Light winds and low seas will then persist through late Wednesday. Strengthening southerly flow is expected to begin late Wednesday with widespread showers and Thunderstorms developing across the area Wednesday night into Friday. Thursday's strong south winds will likely lead to a small craft advisory, and gusts could approach gale force. A cold front is expected to push off the coast on Friday resulting in a shift to north to northeast winds, but this front may stall offshore leading to periods of unsettled conditions lasting into the weekend.

FXUS64 KHGX 281739 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

We continue to be under the influence of a surface high pressure system centered over north Texas this morning. Continued high clouds have prevented temperatures from falling as low as they otherwise would. That being said, it is quite chilly outside this morning with most areas in the 40s. Drier air in the ML/UL will increase the chance of these high level clouds breaking, resulting in more sunshine today. Afternoon temps will be pleasantly cool in the low 60s. Temp grids show a few spots warming into the mid 60s. As the aforementioned high pushes eastward, LL flow will veer east. The resulting onshore flow will likely keep some coastal communities in the 50s through the overnight while inland areas fall into the 40s.

Surface high pressure continues its eastward progression on Wednesday. Meanwhile over the southwest CONUS, a robust mid/upper trough will quickly propagate eastward, inducing surface pressure falls over west Texas. The resulting tightening gradient will gradually increase SE onshore flow on Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing both moisture advection and WAA to the region.
Wednesday's highs are forecast to range from the low 60s in our northern most counties to the upper 60s to near 70 south of I-10. By Wednesday night, we begin to add lift to the increasingly moist environment, increasing rain chances from west to east overnight.
Wednesday night temps are expected to be in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Increasing southeast winds are expected to become gusty Wednesday night, possibly gusting over 25 MPH near the coast by midnight.

The situation becomes more volatile on Thursday. But I will leave that to the long term desk to discuss.

Self

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Thursday is still looking like a very active day for the area as a storm system organizes/deepens in the northern Texas-southern Oklahoma region. Strong/gusty south surface winds, a strengthening low level jet and abundant moisture will help to increase shear and helicity resulting in the potential for some strong and/or severe thunderstorm development mainly in the late morning through afternoon hours (SPC has SE TX in slight risk on their Day 3 Convective Outlook). Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with this system with totals of 1 to 2 inches common and isolated higher amounts possible, especially around and to the east of the Interstate 45 corridor. Expecting to see decreasing rain/storm coverage from west to east in the afternoon. Gusty south winds can be expected for most of the day, especially near/along the coast where a wind advisory might be needed. High temperatures will be in an upper 60s to lower 70s range. The cold front with this system will move off the coast Thursday night and linger in that area into the weekend. Some higher moisture levels near the coast will support some rain chances Friday through Sunday night. The area looks to finally clear out on Monday. Low temperatures in the 40s/50s are in the forecast Thursday night through Sunday night. High temperatures should be mainly in the 60s Friday through Monday. 42

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Surface high pressure centered over the ArkLaTex region will continue to move east this afternoon/evening. This pattern is resulting in light northeast to east winds this afternoon, transitioning to the SE this evening. Skies will continue to scatter out from north to south this afternoon. However, mid to high clouds return early Wednesday. Overall, VFR conditions are expected through the period.

JM

MARINE
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Weakening northeast to east winds and lowering seas can be expected today. Light winds and low seas will then persist through late Wednesday.
Strengthening southerly flow is expected to begin late Wednesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms developing across the area Wednesday night into Friday. Thursday's strong south winds will likely lead to a Small Craft Advisory, and gusts could get close to gales. A cold front is expected to push off the coast on Friday resulting in a shift to north and northeast winds, but this front may stall offshore leading to periods of unsettled conditions lasting into the weekend. 42

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 62 42 63 57 / 0 0 10 70 Houston (IAH) 62 43 66 58 / 0 0 0 70 Galveston (GLS) 61 55 68 62 / 0 0 0 60

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until noon CST today for GMZ350-355-370-375.

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Gilchrist
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Tue -- 06:52 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:16 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:35 PM CST     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:18 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:22 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:33 PM CST     1.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Galveston Bay Entrance
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Tue -- 12:16 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:53 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:16 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:07 AM CST     -3.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:47 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:27 PM CST     2.85 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:23 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Galveston Bay Entrance, Texas Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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