Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cut Off, LA

FXUS64 KLIX 230822 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Shortwave moving eastward across Texas with upper ridging now well off the Florida coast. Some semblance of mid-level ridging to the west of the Texas shortwave. At the surface, the Bermuda high has a westward extension into the eastern Gulf. A stationary boundary was noted near Interstate 40. There is likely an outflow boundary from evening convection near or northwest of Baton Rouge and McComb. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT were mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s, but ranged from 62 at Trent Lott Airport to 75 at Gulfport and Biloxi, which were being warmed by light southerly winds over waters from Mississippi Sound where water temperatures were in the mid 70s.

The Texas shortwave will move east-northeast across the area today and Thursday, while weakening somewhat. Precipitable water values that were near 1.5 inches last evening will dry out slightly over the next 36 hours to about 1.3 inches. There remains sufficient moisture and instability for the development of scattered thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours. The best environment for storms today should be across about the northern half of the area, from about the Interstate 10/12 corridor northward, with the remnant outflow boundary mentioned above as a possible focus for development. On Thursday, as ridging builds into coastal areas, convection may be limited to about the northwest third of the area, such as southwest Mississippi and the adjacent Florida Parishes of southeast Louisiana. Storms will continue to have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall due to rather slow storm movement.

High temperatures should be primarily in the lower and middle 80s today and Thursday. Not much change in overnight lows, either, but did depart from the NBM numbers somewhat in Jackson County, where the Pascagoula River Basin drainage is producing somewhat cooler conditions than anywhere else.
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