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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 253 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday night..West winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Monday night..North winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 253 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis..
s/sw winds will begin to increase through the day and stay around 10- 15 kts before diminishing overnight. A cold front will approach the area Sunday bringing a slight chance of showers, mainly along the nature coast. Once the front moves through, winds will shift to the nw, but should remain below headline criteria.

FXUS62 KJAX 021341 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 841 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

...HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...

UPDATE
Issued at 841 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Due to overcast skies, temperatures, especially over SE GA, will struggle to warm today. High temperatures have likely already occurred during the overnight hours for inland SE GA. Therefore, have lowered temperatures for today. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for waves of showers and embedded storms moving across the area into tonight.



NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Weak pressure pattern over the area with main sfc low back over the northwestern GOMEX, weak trough well offshore of our coast, and another trough over southeast GA. Rounds of scattered mainly light showers still affecting the area thanks to a couple of shortwave troughs rotating southwest to northeast over the southeast states.
Deep layer flow is southwest about 25 mph, with now rising PWATs of about 1.5 to 1.8 inches. The sfc low is expected to translate northeastward to northern AL this afternoon and to the TN and Ohio Valley later tonight. The mean sfc flow will turn more to the south and increase over the area today while additional moisture flows into the region from the southwest, with PWATs of 2 inches across most areas with mean deep flow increased to about 30-35 mph. Best forcing will be tend to be located north of the area today, but weak shortwave disturbances coupled with increased instability will lead to high rain chances, especially over northwest zones at 70-90 percent. The HRRR and other models suggest some potential for a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Models also suggest some storms may be organized from just north of Live Oak FL to Nahunta and possibly as far east as Brunswick. The threat still seems low at this time.
These storms would be capable of isolated wind damage so we will continue to monitor. Given the strengthening south flow, temps will again hit around 80 to the lower 80s over northeast FL and probably remaining in the 70s over southeast GA where the precip chances are highest.

Tonight, mean deep layer flow turns more southwesterly, and elevated rain chances will be noted from southeast GA to the Suwannee Valley.
The cold front will slowly advance to northwest GA to the western FL panhandle late. A few embedded thunderstorms are still expected despite the waning instability. The other concern is for areas of fog to develop but it's possible with the sfc wind of 5-10 mph that dense fog development would be brief and isolated but is include din the forecast. Temps will be much higher than normal, and may be near record warm minimums.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Showers and possible thunderstorms will continue to develop through the forecast area on Sunday with weather conditions clearing in the evening and overnight hours as high pressure conditions build in following the frontal passage. Last remaining traces of precipitation will clear out on Monday with dry weather and westerly flow holding into the beginning of the week. Temperatures will cool after the weekend with high temps on Monday reaching up into the lower 70s and upper 60s and then dropping down into the 40s overnight as colder air settles into the region.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

High pressure conditions will dominate the weather pattern for next week with dry weather expected through the end of the week. A dry cold front will press down into the forecast area from out of the north by midweek, bringing clearing skies and breezy northwesterly winds. Cooling trend will continue through next week with temperatures dropping to be well below the seasonal average by the later part of the week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Areas of IFR and LIFR are across parts of northeast FL TAFs mainly at GNV, SGJ, and CRG, with light patches of rain. Expect conditions to deteriorate at times this morning while showers approach from the west and move to the terminals by midday, though with high chances right now expected at JAX and SSI. A few t-storms will be possible this afternoon but chances are relatively low at this time so including VCTS wording. Additional fog, low stratus, and some shower activity anticipated tonight after 03z-05z time frame.

MARINE
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Southerly flow will remain in effect this weekend before the frontal passage, which looks to be late Sunday night. Patchy to areas of sea fog are possible at times through Sunday morning . Otherwise, winds and seas will be below advisory criteria in the meantime. Winds will increase late Monday and Monday night, and could be near advisory levels. Another dry cold frontal passage expected mid week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today due to the seas of 3+ feet which yields breakers of at least 2-3 ft. Fairly similar conditions expected on Sunday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Total rainfall amounts likely to be around the 0.25 to 1 inch range ahead of the cold frontal passage through Sunday, highest amounts over southeast GA and Suwannee Valley area. NBM model (using near worst case for higher precip) depicts up to near 3 inches over the far western zones from just north Live Oak FL to Alma GA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 66 76 55 / 90 60 80 20 SSI 68 64 76 60 / 60 60 50 20 JAX 75 67 79 60 / 40 40 60 20 SGJ 76 67 80 63 / 20 30 40 20 GNV 78 68 80 63 / 30 30 60 10 OCF 81 68 80 64 / 10 30 40 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Buffalo Bluff
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Sat -- 02:01 AM EST     2.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM EST     3.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:39 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:08 PM EST     2.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:57 PM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Buffalo Bluff, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet

Welaka
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Sat -- 01:23 AM EST     3.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:11 AM EST     3.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     3.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:38 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:05 PM EST     3.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:40 PM EST     3.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:03 PM EST     3.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:05 PM EST     3.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet

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