Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Clear Lake Shores, TX

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Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:21PM Friday July 19, 2019 5:34 AM CDT (10:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:28PMMoonset 7:53AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 341 Am Cdt Fri Jul 19 2019
Today..South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A slight chance of sprinkles early in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. A slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers late.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Northwest winds around 5 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..East winds around 5 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Bay waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 341 Am Cdt Fri Jul 19 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Generally quiet weather is expected through the weekend. Wind speeds tonight will approach the scec threshold at night with winds speeds increasing to around 15 knots. Otherwise, high pressure over the gulf will provide dry weather and the typical summertime wind pattern over the next couple of days. Rain chances should increase slowly through the weekend and into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clear Lake Shores, TX
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location: 29.55, -95     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 190837
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
337 am cdt Fri jul 19 2019

Discussion
- increasing thunderstorm chances through the weekend into early
next week.

- change in upper level pattern will allow for a front to move
through the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

Short term [today and tonight]
Satellite and observations show mostly clear skies across
southeast texas underneath ridging, though there are a few flecks
of clouds at the 2000ish foot level. This will have little impact
on sensible weather at the surface, but may need to be accounted
for in aviation forecasts, along with some patchy fog in the usual
foggy spots. Radar indicates perhaps a nocturnal shower or two
over the gulf, though most of the returns on radar look to be sea
spray instead.

Have spread a slight chance of sprinkles near the coast this
morning, just in case any marine showers drift onshore, but
largely think we'll be looking at generally scattered clouds (or
less) thanks to the ridging in place, and precipitable water in
the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range. This should largely suppress rain
chances, but it's hard to completely rule out a slight chance of
sprinkles or even an isolated shower storm with a seabreeze
boundary and strong diurnal heating.

On the flip side, high dewpoints will keep low temperatures this
morning high for yet another day. This will provide a solid floor
from which to see strong heating into the afternoon. Inland, we
should see another day with highs in the low to middle 90s, closer
to 90 degrees at the coast. Of course, there is little surprise
that we will likely see heat indices rising above the century
mark today into the 100-105 range for most of the area.

Luchs

Long term [Saturday through Friday]
Thunderstorm chances increase over the weekend due to a couple of
factors. First higher moisture gets drawn up from the gulf
Saturday into Sunday such that more scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible by Sunday. This also lines up with
when an inverted trough sneaks under the upper level ridge and
moves across the northern gulf coast reaching the area late
Sunday. This also allows for lower 500mb heights over the area
along with slightly increased large scale ascent. While this is
happening, 500mb heights increase over the 4 corners region into
the great basin. Sunday into Monday the pattern becomes more
amplified as the ridge increases.

By Monday night into Tuesday the upper level pattern becomes
amplified with the ridge over the great basin and a substantial
trough over the great lakes. This pattern should persist through
much of the week with naefs ECMWF ensembles showing 500mb heights
in the 90th percentile associated with this ridge. Tuesday through
Thursday the trough axis extends from the great lakes all the way
into texas creating a weakness in the ridging between the ridge
to the west and ridging over the western atlantic. This also
allows for a front to move into the area Monday night and Tuesday.

This is also where we will go with higher pops for scattered
showers and storms along the frontal boundary. The forecast will
maintain thunderstorm chances through the rest of the week with
the front stalling off the coast and then dissipating. Higher
moisture pooled along the front in the gulf then moves back north
later in the week thereby needing thunderstorm chances to
continue.

Overall the main impacts from storms next week will be typical
heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning. Storms should stay
below severe levels but would not be surprised at an isolated
strong severe storm Sunday into Monday before the front arrives.

The main threat for a severe storm will be downburst winds as
freezing levels will be quite high limiting hail growth.

Overpeck

Marine
Typical summertime conditions on the bays and gulf are expected at
least through the weekend. This is complete with daytime winds
closer to 10 knots during the day, drifting upwards to around 15
knots. This is right around the scec threshold, but with waves
expected to be around 3 feet or less, have opted against the
caution flag at this time.

At the beaches, galveston beach patrol reports mainly moderate rip
currents, but an occasionally strong rip current is being
observed. As with the scec, will abstain from a rip current
statement at this time, but if beach patrol indicates conditions
are worsening, a statement may be issued.

Looking ahead, a weak cold front could enter the coastal waters
as we push towards the middle of next week.

Luchs

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 96 77 96 77 96 10 0 10 0 10
houston (iah) 94 79 93 78 93 20 10 20 10 30
galveston (gls) 90 82 90 82 90 20 20 20 10 20

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... Overpeck
short term... Luchs
long term... Overpeck
aviation... Luchs
marine... Luchs overpeck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 6 mi53 min S 8 G 8 84°F 86°F1014.6 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 9 mi53 min S 8.9 G 11 83°F 87°F1015 hPa
GRRT2 18 mi53 min SSW 8 G 9.9 83°F 87°F1014.5 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 19 mi53 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 81°F 88°F1014.3 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 20 mi53 min S 11 G 13 85°F 87°F1014.1 hPa
GTOT2 20 mi53 min S 6 G 9.9 84°F 87°F1014.8 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 26 mi47 min SSW 6 G 7 83°F 87°F1015.4 hPa
HIST2 32 mi53 min S 4.1 G 5.1 82°F 86°F1015 hPa
LUIT2 33 mi47 min S 9.9 G 13 84°F 85°F1014.8 hPa
KXIH 36 mi40 min SSW 9.9 84°F 75°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 38 mi45 min S 9.7 G 12 85°F 2 ft1015.9 hPa81°F
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 45 mi53 min S 8.9 G 13 84°F 86°F1015.4 hPa
FPST2 45 mi47 min S 11 G 13 84°F 86°F1014.5 hPa

Wind History for Eagle Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi45 minSSE 210.00 miA Few Clouds79°F75°F89%1014.6 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX13 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair79°F75°F88%1015.4 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX16 mi42 minSSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds79°F75°F88%1015.2 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX21 mi43 minS 1110.00 miA Few Clouds84°F77°F80%1015.3 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX24 mi40 minVar 310.00 miFair81°F75°F84%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4S3--S8S8----S6S11S12S10S12S11S11S11S8S7S3S3S3S3SE2SE2S2
1 day ago--E3SE3S8S7SE8------S11
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S12S12S12S12S9S8--S5SE6S4--SE3--Calm
2 days agoSE3SE4S6S7S8S9S10S11S12--SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:32 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:41 AM CDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:53 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:43 PM CDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:25 PM CDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:27 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:20 PM CDT     0.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.30.40.60.60.60.60.60.60.50.50.50.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:59 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:31 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:41 AM CDT     1.95 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:52 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:50 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:04 PM CDT     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:50 PM CDT     -0.64 knots Min Ebb
Fri -- 08:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:26 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-1.7-1.3-0.800.81.51.91.91.81.51.10.70.3-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.7-0.9-1.1-1.3-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.