Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Lago, TX

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Guidance continues to show a fairly active period through the end of the upcoming week. A series of shortwave troughs embedded within a generally quasi-zonal midlevel flow will invigorate the development of showers and thunderstorms each day through Friday.
Rainfall chances will be aided by a persistent and steady onshore flow regime that will keep total PW values generally in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range. Daily rainfall chances will sit anywhere from 30-70%, with the pattern generally favoring higher rainfall chances/amounts across the northern portions of the forecast area. Given the warm/unstable pattern, a few stronger storms can't fully be ruled out.

This week will certainly be characteristic of the march towards summer, with high humidity and temperatures in the 80s. Overnight lows will generally sit in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Cady

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The forecast is unfortunately quite uncertain this evening, particularly for IAH, SGR, and HOU. A boundary slowly approaches from the west. Associated shra/tsra activity along the boundary will continue as this boundary pushes westward. The boundary is expected to stall. The exact location and timing of the stalling is one uncertain factor. The other uncertain factor is how long after we lose day time heating will tsra activity last. It is possible that tsra activity remains just west and north of IAH, keeping most of the heavy weather in CXO's and UTS's space. But it is also possible that we will have to contend with these storms in the heart of the Houston metro. Loss of day time could bring tsra to its demise as early as 03-04Z. But some high resolution guidance suggest TSRA could linger well after 06Z. Therefore, TAFs will need to be monitored for amendments this evening. Cigs are expected to trend MVFR overnight across the southern half of the region, mostly from CXO points south to the coast. Winds in the vicinity of the boundary will become light and variable, while remaining from the SE to the south of the boundary.

Forecast for tomorrow appears tricky as well, with another chance of scattered shra/tsra near wherever the boundary ends up.

MARINE
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Strong southeast winds and hazardous seas will continue into this evening. Winds should ease somewhat overnight. However, seas may take longer to drop, potentially resulting in an extension in the Small Craft Advisory over the Gulf. While winds and seas decrease, there will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
This is the beginning of an active pattern that will set the stage for daily shower and thunderstorm chances through much of the upcoming week. Onshore winds and seas are expected to increase again by the middle of the week.

Self

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 59 85 66 87 / 20 10 0 40 Houston (IAH) 68 82 69 84 / 60 60 10 50 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 72 80 / 50 50 10 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ330-350.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ335-355-370- 375.