NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1135 Am Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
This afternoon..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Friday..South winds around 10 knots, increasing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming north around 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots after midnight. Bay waters rough, becoming very rough after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters rough, becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1135 Am Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
strengthening southeasterly to southerly winds develop later this morning and persist through Friday resulting in gradually increasing seas. Isolated rain showers are possible Friday, but will increase in coverage and strength on Saturday as a cold front pushes through the waters. Moderate to strong northwesterly winds will develop behind the front with gusts up to gale force possible Saturday night into Sunday morning along with building seas. Abnormally low tides are possible Sunday morning in the bays due to the strong northwesterly winds. Winds and seas subside on Sunday.

FXUS64 KHGX 071742 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1142 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

A touch warmer today with the return of southerly winds. Variable high cloudiness into early afternoon will lower and become overcast from west-east during the afternoon and evening hours as low level moisture gradually increases. Considering the thicker cloud cover and steady sse winds, low temps tonight should be a good 15 degrees higher than what we're waking up to this morning. Guidance still likes the idea of some weak shortwaves moving into the area from the west late tonight and Fri. Assuming PW's climb as forecast, we might see some iso-sct shower development (better chances across the southern half of the CWA)...eventually pushing off to the east late Friday afternoon & evening with the departure of the upper disturbance and higher PW axis. Hires models aren't as bullish with coverage as some of the global models. Overall, left POPs about where they were advertised with earlier fcst packages. 47

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Going into Saturday, the surface low that subsequently develops from a mid/upper trough sweeping through the Central CONUS will be moving quickly to the NNE into the Great Lakes region as it rides along the upper level wind pattern. Since the movement of this low is more northerly than easterly, the associated cold front will take a bit longer to push through. Think of it as the front gets caught in traffic coming down I-45...I'm sure we all can relate. Model consensus (including some high-res guidance) points toward a mid to late afternoon FROPA for most. It's too early to give a super precise timeframe, but in general it's looking like the front begins to move into the Brazos Valley around 1-4pm and doesn't push offshore till around or after 9pm.

There remains "some" potential for strong to severe storms to develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary given the abundance of shear (0-6km shear greater than 60 kts) and an axis of instability (MUCAPE 1200-1800 J/kg) within the warm sector of the surface low...but there's something that will likely hinder our chances of seeing these stronger storms. With an 850mb high off to our east providing southwesterly flow throughout most of the week ahead of the approaching front, a fairly robust subsidence inversion layer (cap) will be in place around 850-750mb. Check out some of the forecast soundings and you'll see it's fairly sharp...so that'll be tough for storms to overcome.
That's not to say that storms can't break the cap...but the odds look to be more in favor of the cap holding. All that being said, SPC has kept parts of Southeast TX in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather on Saturday. Generally, areas along and east of I-45 are in the slight risk...but the best chance of seeing strong to severe storms will likely be in the Piney Woods (northeast counties). Confidence in rainfall in general occuring is fairly high though, and some locally heavy rain will be possible as well along the front with PW values surging up to 1.4"-1.6" (90th percentile: ~1.44"). There are no concerns for flooding.

With the cold front now moving through more in the mid to late afternoon time frame, that allows more time for southwesterly winds ahead of the front and compressional heating to get temperatures into the mid to upper 70s on Saturday afternoon. Some areas may even reach the 80°F mark...that'll make the 12 hour temperature difference that much more drastic. Behind the front, strong CAA will prevail with northwesterly winds around 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-35 mph. A Wind Advisory may be needed for parts of Southeast TX Saturday evening into Sunday morning. So, if you have any outdoor holiday decorations up (especially inflatables), you'll definitely want to make sure they are secured...it is the season of giving but let's not give accidental decoration donations to your neighbors down the street. PW values drop sharply behind the front reaching less than 0.2" by Saturday night, which is near the climatological minimum. Gusty winds overnight will keep temperatures from dropping as much as they could...but we'll still see a 30-40°F drop from Saturday afternoon with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Surface high pressure moves overhead on Sunday as daytime highs only climb into the mid to upper 50s. With clear skies and light winds overnight on Sunday, we have the perfect recipe for maximum radiational cooling...so I nudged temperatures down a bit below guidance. Expecting widespread low temperatures in the 30s with parts of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods experiencing a light freeze. With a 850mb high remaining overhead into Tuesday, 850mb temperatures remain around the 10th percentile. So, although high temperatures will increase...they'll only increase to the low to mid 60s. Surface high pressure slides off to the east by Tuesday leading to return flow increasing PW values back to 1.0"-1.3" off the coast by Tuesday night. That leads to rain chances returning generally south of I-10
Midweek looks rather
interesting to say the least. Another mid/upper level trough moves from the NW CONUS down towards the Four Corners on Tuesday. There is model consensus on this becoming a cutoff upper level low that remains in the SW CONUS past midweek. If you read last night's AFD then you'll remember that there was talk of a potential midweek cold front...well that would be postponed in this scenario if it verifies. This is a good example of why we don't set things in stone a week out...each model run could (and likely will) show something different at that range! The good news is that model guidance has been very consistent on keeping temperatures generally in the 60s for highs and the 40s for lows into next week.

Batiste

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions will persist for the remainder of the day with some midlevel clouds building into the area later this afternoon.
Conditions will deteriorate thereafter as southeast winds continue to provide increased moisture, with MVFR cigs developing overnight and persisting into tomorrow. Latest forecast soundings indicate the potential for some IFR cigs at times around sunrise, mostly along and south of the I-10 corridor. Additionally, look for increasing south to southeast winds tomorrow afternoon. There will be a potential for isolated showers by late morning, with the greatest chances along the coast.

Cady

MARINE
Issued at 312 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Onshore flow returns later this morning and begins to strengthen going into tonight and Friday as the next weather system approaches. Winds may reach the caution threshold as early as tonight and will be fairly close to the advisory threshold Friday afternoon into Friday night. As a result of the strengthened onshore flow, the risk of rip currents will also be elevated on Friday. A strong cold front will push through the waters late Saturday with moderate to strong northwesterly winds in its wake.
Mariners can expect at least a Small Craft Advisory to be in effect from Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Wind gusts to gale force will be possible in the Gulf waters. Due to the elevated offshore flow, low water levels will be possible in the bays during low tide on Sunday morning. Wave heights also increase due to the strong offshore flow and peak in the 7-9 foot range on Saturday night/Sunday morning. Winds and seas gradually subside on Sunday with onshore flow returning by Monday afternoon.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 71 61 76 67 / 0 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 70 59 76 68 / 0 20 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 67 63 71 67 / 0 10 30 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Clear Lake
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:51 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:47 AM CST     0.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:16 PM CST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:56 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:21 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:15 PM CST     0.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet

Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:04 AM CST     0.71 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:47 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:00 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:18 AM CST     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:16 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:54 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:21 PM CST     1.03 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:27 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:59 PM CST     -0.12 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:27 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Houston/Galveston, TX,