Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cross City, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 826 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Have done some minor updates to the forecast to account for latest guidance with the light rain that will be coming in later tonight.
Generally, this amounted to expansion of the PoP field, though QPF amounts will still be light... amounting to less than 1/10 inch for most, with up to 1/4 inch in the luckiest spots.

Otherwise, the fog picture is a bit more muddled tonight. Factors working against fog are thick high clouds and wind. Wind tends to keep fog stirred up into a low cloud deck. Factors in favor of fog are climatologically favored dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s, plus winter-chilled Gulf waters near the coast. Wind is less of a deterrent to sea fog than radiation fog. So confidence is not high enough at this point to issue a Dense Fog Advisory. Latest guidance points to the I-10 corridor from Tallahassee east as having the highest confidence for fog at sunrise on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

The main concern over the next 24 hours is the potential for fog again tonight, as well as a low chance of light showers late tonight into Wednesday. A favorable environment for fog is expected to persist for tonight with warm, moist air flowing over the cooler waters of the NE Gulf. This pattern typically causes fog to start along the coastline and push inland throughout the overnight period, persisting into the mid to late morning.
Guidance is a mixed bag on fog potential, but persistence from last night tips the scale in favor of at least some fog occurring again tonight across the region. Given the uncertainty, we'll defer any dense fog issuance to later shifts.

A weak cold front will also slide southward on Wednesday, bringing a low chance of showers to the region. Overnight lows tonight are expected to range from the upper 40s to upper 50s across the region with daytime highs on Wednesday mostly in the 70s.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Mainly dry weather will continue through the remainder of the week.
For this weekend, models are honing in on the next meaningful frontal system to approach the area on Sunday. There remains fairly consistent run to run consistency showing a low level jet of 40-50 knots, so we'll have to see if any meaningful instability manages to push inland to provide us with a high shear, low CAPE severe weather scenario. The 13z NBM currently has a medium chance (30-50%) of CAPE > 500 j/kg across the western half of the area on Sunday. In addition, ensemble probabilities for 850 mb winds > 45 knots are 30- 40%. Stay tuned over the few days for updates.
Conceptually, if any severe weather occurs, then it's more likely to occur across the western half of the area compared to the eastern half given the cooler shelf waters of Apalachee Bay from the recent cold air outbreaks. The rainfall with this system is badly needed with somewhere between 1 and 3 inches currently expected for most locations.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 826 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

The low-level air mass continues to moisten thanks to SW low-level flow, so low clouds and patchy fog are expected late tonight and Wed morning. A mid-level disturbance should bring some areas of light rain and showers during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. On Wednesday afternoon, look for SCT-BKN fair weather cumulus.

MARINE
Issued at 826 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Gentle to occasionally moderate breezes will continue over the northeastern Gulf through Friday night. Some sea fog is possible near the coast over the next couple of days, most likely during the overnight and morning hours. Winds and seas will increase this weekend ahead of a strong cold front with small craft advisory conditions likely.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

A weak frontal boundary will bring a low chance of light showers (10- 30 percent) to the area on Wednesday. A drier airmass temporarily arrives Thursday before moisture increases again ahead of the next significant cold front this weekend.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

For the upcoming system this weekend, 1-3 inches of rain is forecast at this time. This would be beneficial rainfall if it occurs given the ongoing drought. Currently, there are no flooding concerns.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 56 77 53 72 / 20 30 10 0 Panama City 58 72 55 71 / 10 10 10 0 Dothan 59 77 50 69 / 20 30 10 0 Albany 58 77 46 69 / 40 30 10 0 Valdosta 54 77 50 71 / 30 50 20 0 Cross City 48 73 53 75 / 0 10 10 10 Apalachicola 56 68 55 66 / 0 20 10 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.